Only in this STUPID game ...

A couple of things on this from a mostly mediocre to bad (when my teams are bad, they are really bad) manager who has been playing for about two years.

I say this mostly tongue in cheek, but I do think there are some black box shenanigans that occur. Nothing overly diabolical, but I do notice when my credits get low, my teams seem to go on more winning streaks and end up more in the mix (I equate this to a bad round of golf where I then par or birdie 18, and can't wait to get back out there). I have no data to back this up, and it's probably been true only sometimes and not others, but I still believe it.

On run differential, I do think the extreme ballparks combined with how more and more pitching staffs are being constructed is contributing to what happens. When your starter gets knocked out early (or conversely when you knock out another starter early), you get into the really cheap pitchers who get absolutely pounded, and in my opinion this can result in a lot of the one off lopsided scores that can really bloat RD one way or the other.

I have also noticed the more pitching weighted my teams, the smaller my run differential. However, I tend to win more with pitcher heavy teams in pitcher friendly parks.

Anyway, just some observations, most of which are no doubt half baked.

On run differential, I do think the extreme ballparks combined with how more and more pitching staffs are being constructed is contributing to what happens. When your starter gets knocked out early (or conversely when you knock out another starter early), you get into the really cheap pitchers who get absolutely pounded, and in my opinion this can result in a lot of the one off lopsided scores that can really bloat RD one way or the other.

I have also noticed the more pitching weighted my teams, the smaller my run differential. However, I tend to win more with pitcher heavy teams in pitcher friendly parks.

Agreed.

On run differential, I do think the extreme ballparks combined with how more and more pitching staffs are being constructed is contributing to what happens. When your starter gets knocked out early (or conversely when you knock out another starter early), you get into the really cheap pitchers who get absolutely pounded, and in my opinion this can result in a lot of the one off lopsided scores that can really bloat RD one way or the other.

Super-smart point, I'd had vague theories along these lines but you articulated it really well and it makes perfect sense. Here's a team of mine to illustrate the dynamic perfectly: https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/expanded/458407 76 actual wins versus 89 expected. But the whole team is predicated on destroying LHP. Think about how many of those runs scored came in meaningless blowouts of LHP. Also, what is the one gigantic caveat to pythag even in real life? Bullpens. Teams with excellent bullpens are able to overperform their pythag because they're able to win close games more consistently than other teams. The reverse also applies.

And then there's just weird outliers like the 2021 Mariners or the 2016 Rangers. Weird shit happens sometimes.

Also, I'm not sure what the expected wins stat is based on that Strat shows, but technically it's not quite pythag. I've seen teams with better +/- with fewer Exp.W than teams with worse +/-. Would be interesting to know what it's based on. BaseRuns? That'd be pretty cool.

FrankieT-
thanks for that analysis, very astute.
it would appear to address the issue, but here is the monkey wrench.
I have had 14 teams with the similar result---very high positive run differential teams that do not make the playoffs.
Looking at your diagnosis (extreme team in extreme park etc), it does apply to 2 of those teams.
But the other 12, is does not.
So your analysis, though certainly definitive for that particular kind of team, does not apply to the larger remainder.
If there was just one or two things that seemed out of whack, then the concern would be minimal, but there are red flags here.---homerun normalization, 100+ win team playoff losers, long win/losing streaks, low win teams winning championships, out of whack run differential, etc.---all of these should be looked at, particularly in that TSN/STRAT have stated that there are "normalization" factors, and playoff modifier factors. it would be great to get clear transparency from STRAT once and for all. As we pay for playing this game, it would be only appropriate to know if there are "adjustment" factors, and if so, how these factors affect play.
But don't bet the house on STRAT doing that....

I know that several owners who have played this game for years, have ceased participating, because they felt something was amiss.

But we will never know, and until we go to a STRAT ANONYMOUS PROGRAM for addiction recovery, we will continue to play this game, pull our hair out, and swear that all is not right in Denmark....

when i first started out playing 2 yrs ago..mostl all 80 Mil leagues I almost quit because I too thought something was not right..now after finding a system that works most of the time...7 out of the last 11 teames made the playoffs...1 very good team won...1 wildcard team with a 75mil lineup won beating a 100 win team in the semis and won...1 soso team lost the 7th gm in the finals...my current team just beat a team in the semis that beat me 9 out of 12 times in the regular season and in that series I had 2 of my better players injured in all but 1 game...so ive been on both ends of being lucky and unlucky....if you think about it baseball is similar in the best team doesnt always win thats why they play the game...all that said maybe there is other forces that come into play but as I have learned like most things in life its love it or leave it

I’d like to add one thing that could help explain some of the playoff issues…. Not saying this is the only or absolute reason for all of this but I have talked to some players throughout my times playing and in those conversations some people have admitted to me that they just draft and doing team settings and don’t do day to day adjustments or adjustments for specific teams in season but do once the playoffs start. Mostly it was people with 20 teams going or so and I’m not gonna lie I adopted the same tendencies. So a team that looks slightly above avg could in theory have been x amount of games better with more attention to detail and the run differential should in theory be a little better too. Not saying that they’d be the best team in the regular season but could make a 85 win team a 91/92 win team and so on

the issue that was brought up is that STRAT has stated that the playoffs have been "enhanced" for dramatic effect, and what has been red flagged is that owners who have purchased a massive number of teams, have 100+ win teams that have lost a ridiculous number of playoffs, I think Nevdully's record is something like 0-24.

I think suggesting that that is happening because some owners don't adjust their settings until the playoffs, just doesn't make sense. If you are regularly in leagues with top owners like Pacoboy, Nevdully, Ironwill, Divad and the like, I don't see how you would only adjust your settings when (and if) you get to the playoffs.....

I usually have about 15 teams going. I set everything up at the beginning and do all the backups and everything but I don’t have time to go through every lineup and adjust the batting order every time gets hurt. I focus more on the day to day when the seasons wrapping up and in the playoffs. I don’t remember who or what league but a few people told me they play similar.

I was more referring to the part about the 85 win teams pulling off playoff runs that some could have been better than they looked for that reason. I didn’t mean for it to come off as the only reason that this could happen. Sorry if it came off that way wasn’t even meant for the 100 win team losing part

Nattw0909--
i see what you are saying....thx for clarifying.
I usually have about the same number of teams (are we addicted to this game?) but as it costs dinero to play, I do my best to make daily adjustments so I can get to the playoffs.
as to changing lineups when there are injuries, I have found often, that when there are injuries on one of my teams, HAL changes the batting order even I have have my lineups set with backups listed. I have started putting in the backup player directly into the lineup to stop HAL from messing around......

Team Streak - 1987 Milwaukee Brewers

The ‘87 Brewers were a six-month thrill ride, beginning with a 13-0 start that set an American League record and matched the Major League mark set by the 1982 Atlanta Braves

The magic didn’t last. Not two weeks removed from their winning streak, the Brewers lost 12 in a row. They finished 91-71 but third in the AL East.