Another "conspiracy" question

The chance of the three best teams, randomly placed in a league, ending up in the same division is 5.45%, so that is basically a 1 in 20 chance.

As a person who plays Dungeons and Dragons as well as Strat--1 in 20 SEEMS to come up a lot more than you think.

I may not have laughed out loud, but I did grin pretty broadly as the king of rolling ones when the DM says roll anything but a one on a 20 sider.

goffchile
thank you, that's a very important point.

I just called a very good friend of mine who is a math professor, and proposed the probability question to him.

here is his response:
The chance of the three best owners, randomly placed in a league, ending up in the same division is 5.45%, so that is basically a 1 in 20 chance. So it is not common for it to happen, but it can happen (approx once in 20 leagues)
He explained that in statistic analysis there is what is called The P value, which is the point at which if a result is above the P value, there is high confidence that it is a random result. If it is below the P value, then the result is suspect. 5 % is considered established P value, so a 5.45% is basically borderline, but still above the P value.
So unless this happens as a regular recurring pattern, then it most likely is a random result.

I'm gonna have to challenge those numbers. And if I'm wrong your math professor friend can slap me around and call me silly ... BUT ...

The 1ST manager is a given as they can be in ANY DIVISION meaning a 1 in 1 chance.
The 2nd manager has a 3 in 11 chance of ending up in that same division as the first manager.
The 3rd manager has a 2 in 10 chance of ending up in the same division as the first two managers.
And the 4th manager has a 1 in 9 chance of ending up in the same division as the first three managers.

So, unless there is a flaw in my logic (which of course is entirely possible), that's a 6 in 990 chance of occurring which is far less than 5.45%, it's about a 0.6% chance.

THEN AGAIN, I COULD BE WRONG ...

The first guy only went with 3 in one div...you went all 4 top winners in one div.

The first guy only went with 3 in one div...you went all 4 top winners in one div.

That would explain it. But my question was about the league I just drafted in where the top 4 winning % are all in the same division.

The chance of the three best teams, randomly placed in a league, ending up in the same division is 5.45%, so that is basically a 1 in 20 chance.

As a person who plays Dungeons and Dragons as well as Strat--1 in 20 SEEMS to come up a lot more than you think.

exactly!
and it is always emotional. either a character dies of some strange poison or it’s billy hamilton hitting a bpHR against a lefty at petco! both can sting a long time

In the past 20 years I’ve survived the:

1. Same guy on different teams gets injured at the same time phenomenon.
2. Curse of the wildcard phenomenon.
3. Curse of the 100 win team phenomenon.
4. Stat modifier phenomenon.
5. Streaks and momentum phenomenon.
6. Top managers in the same division phenomenon.
7. Mike Trout goes .230/.290/.335 phenomenon.

Currently, I’m completely baffled by this weird thing where teams have been routinely scoring 20-30 runs in a game (both for and against). Is the current bullpen version now completely off the rails??

I’ve withstood A LOT over 20 years, but this is truly the first time where I had uneasy feelings that something is just not quite right with the game. I don’t say this with sour grapes either. After my first season, my winning percentages and ring percentages have been basically unchanged, even through today. But…

It’s getting somewhat unsettling, and what’s stranger is that so many seem to be arriving at this place at the same time.

Did the bullpen changes possibly throw everything too far out of alignment?

i have noticed the 20-29 run games increasing...very strange indeed.

Delete.

i have noticed the 20-29 run games increasing...very strange indeed.

I have noticed this too. It seems that HAL is more prone now to forget/ignore that the pitcher is getting destroyed. I have had numerous instances of relief pitchers being allowed to stay in to give up 12-15 runs, even with other bullpen guys available. Of course, HAL manages to pull them with 1/3 of an inning left so they get that game pitched that might affect their availability for the next game.

I think what is happening, is that per complaints from a segment of owners (who are saying that "not having a bullpen is not realistic"), STRAT is attempting to change setting factors in order to prevent teams from going with the four stud 9* starter strategy, (and selecting the "Conversative" settings for both the starters and relief)--which some owners have turned into an exact science.....
If this is what STRAT is in fact doing, and based on what you guys are seeing, and I have seen it recently (the other night I in a three game series, there were 3 scores of over 19 runs), then once again everything is going to get whacked.

Its the same kind of knee-jerk poorly thought out reaction that they did with the super-reliever situation. Owners were complaining that super-relievers were not realistic, so STRAT bumped the salaries of the top relievers (in a big way) and they narrowed the reliever roles to two per pitcher (closer, setup, middle etc.), and they added the 4th "reliever only" requirement. So of course now very few owners use the top relievers except in the very high salary games, I rarely if ever see them in 80 mill leagues.
So once you have owners not wanting to pay for over-priced relievers, of course owners started looking for ways to basically have a bullpen that is rarely used, so you can use cheapo bullpen guys that spend most of their time polishing pine.

It appears that by manipulating the results in one instance (super-reliever), that created a new issue (the 4 stud starters with cheapo bullpen), which it seems STRAT is trying to manipulate that result, by making starting pitchers tire much faster so they give up football scores.

Don't have enough data yet to confirm this, but it sure is starting to look that way........