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lev.cohen wrote:Thought this might interest some people: I figured 4 seasons of data was enough to draw some insights, so while we wait for the draft, I did a quick project in which I ran the correlations between team payroll and number of wins in every season so far (2007 to 2010) and found the average number of games you should be expected to win given your team payroll.
As you might expect, the correlation is pretty high but not perfect -- luck, team ballpark fit and construction, and managing decisions all matter of course. The biggest overachieving (/luckiest?) teams based on salary were:
Lowell Lineouts '08 (92m payroll, 110 wins; 92 wins expected based on other team performance in 2008)
Purple Haze '10 (95m, 111 wins; 94 wins expected)
Lowell Lineouts '07 (54m, 79 wins; 66 wins expected)
Sedona Scorpions '07 (107m, 118 wins; 105 wins expected)
Good job boblues41! It varies a little bit by year, but on average, a $100m team should win on average roughly 96 games, for example; a $60m team should win about 70 games.
I have the data/graphs on an Excel sheet so let me know if you'd be interested in seeing it and I can email it over.
Thanks, Lev, nice work! If you're ever in the mood to crunch some more numbers, here are the results for the 13 seasons of a previous iteration, the "Those Were the Days League": https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =122626763
I can send a list of the Strat links for each season, too, to build the correlations.