POLL ... Is there some kind of RE-injury bug?

I've seen it many, many times where a player gets hurt, comes back and gets hurt again.

Is this just a coincidence or is it HAL up to his old tricks?

It would have to be explained to me what statistically is the violation of two unrelated events occurring in succession.

I would be more worried, not less, if it were never the case. The first injury should have nothing to do with the second just as re-rolling the dice has nothing to do with the previous result. The fact that this seldom does occur--but does in fact occur--is aligned with expectation.

Bulk statistics (like "average") are quite useless for explaining single events. There is a fundamental misunderstanding if the inference is that single or non-representative sampled events need to follow a predetermined likelihood at all times. If so, then there is a deep misunderstanding of what they mean. By definition, it is an impossibility.

The argument is a guy with 30 hits on one side of his card = he must have a rate of 10 hits out of every 36 card chances...or 5 of every 18...or...well do we see how this breaks down? Not to mention how boring--no need for any randomness then. Just follow a script.

Bulk stats of discrete variables that are based on homogenous/gaussian/normal distros are only valid in the long run as cases approach infinity. It approaches nonsense as cases approach 0 (or as the distro no longer looks homogeneous/normal).

And we can't mix selective samples because there is inherent selection bias, no matter how much it sucks when you are the "victim".
I'm open that there are clearly things done with the outcomes for certain stated reasons. But to say there is only bias when it most dramatically affects me really will need lots more than has been offered.

Example of bulk stats gone bad even for a continuous (non-discrete) variable: Temperature in outer space. Very High. Yet you would freeze to death. Why? Because temperature is an intensive variable, and is derived from a simplified scalar interpretation of momentum, energy and collisions. Remove the necessary number of collisions (such as in space where there are few, but mostly high speed particles) to ensure temperature is evenly distributed as roughly 3/2 kT, aka average kinetic energy, and you no longer have what we know as temperature, because the distro is not normal and the cases (collisions) are too low.

OK back to Monty Python

That sketch was great.

The odds of an injury is 1 in 216 on a 1 rated player. And I have seen guys get injured 3, 4 even 5 times in their first 50-100 PA's in a season. And to me that defies all rational logic or statistics.

Just like flipping a coin, the preceding flips have no bearing on the subsequent flips, but over the course of time, the law of averages should kick in.

Just go back and look at your season long injury chart and see just how many times a guys has been injured the very next series after coming back from an injury. It happens more than you think.

That sketch was great.

The odds of an injury is 1 in 216 on a 1 rated player. And I have seen guys get injured 3, 4 even 5 times in their first 50-100 PA's in a season. And to me that defies all rational logic or statistics.

Just like flipping a coin, the preceding flips have no bearing on the subsequent flips, but over the course of time, the law of averages should kick in.

Just go back and look at your season long injury chart and see just how many times a guys has been injured the very next series after coming back from an injury. It happens more than you think.

you can also look at those of us who have had teams with 50 injured players- and lost 200+ games to injuries-
with recurrences of certain players who were 1s of some sort getting injured 8 times during the season- or the same pitcher getting injured a number of times.
and yes the sketch was hilarious- definitely felt like it captured a characature.

https://youtu.be/rf71YotfykQ


So I will yield and move on--just like Graham Chapman.

Fair enough guys. We have to agree that the only way to know is with global injury data for all the 1s, 2s, etc.
I think it will reveal nothing extraordinary, you think it might. That is OK and is shaded by our experiences.

Always look on the bright side of life...

I say we look at this logically. You won't be able to disagree with that. I think I am realizing that when I was teaching I must have used Monty Python as a warm up/attention step way too many times...but I think this one on how to logically make a scientific determination applies to this discussion!

https://youtu.be/rf71YotfykQ


So I will yield and move on--just like Graham Chapman.

Its absolutely cool to disagree - that was never the issue.
And you might be right - really- it just doesnt 'seem' that way, but less willing to die on the flag of injuries than some of the other stuff like normalization.

The issue is more when you insist on bringing in non-relative things as an assertion that its wrong-
like in this case if you brought in some teams injury stats claiming that SoM was just imitation MLB --
bc the difference is that we are working within what should be a closed system of what actually happened in a given season vs. what could happen one time somewhere.

Six series in and my RF (Aaron max 3 games) has rolled injury twice 1/216 chance. Not wanting to go another series without a key hitter I replace him with Murphy also max 3 game injury and 1/216. He will miss the next series. So in about 70 plate appearances for these two players I have rolled 1/216 chance three times and failed the d20 each time.

Are you telling me Murphy has another injury in his near future

Smokey Burgess, injured FIVE TIMES in a span of about 80 plate appearances ...

Elk Grove PTPers

Player Pos Risk Salary Injured during For
TOTAL 30 days
Mazzilli, Lee (1986) 1B 1 2.52M Game 5 1 additional day
Blowers, Mike (1993) 3B 1 1.64M Game 7 1 additional day
Burgess, Smoky (1954) C 2 4.06M Game 12 2 additional days
Burgess, Smoky (1954) C 2 4.06M Game 20 1 additional day
Burgess, Smoky (1954) C 2 4.06M Game 23 1 additional day
Jamieson, Charlie (1927) LF 1 2.38M Game 26 2 additional days
Burgess, Smoky (1954) C 2 4.06M Game 27 2 additional days
Royster, Jerry (1982) 3B 1 2.01M Game 30 3 additional days
Burgess, Smoky (1954) C 2 4.06M Game 44 4 additional days
McDowell, Sam (1965) P - 8.09M Game 52 3 additional days
Royster, Jerry (1982) 3B 1 2.01M Game 49 10 additional days

Smokey Burgess, injured FIVE TIMES in a span of about 80 plate appearances ...

Elk Grove PTPers

Player Pos Risk Salary Injured during For
TOTAL 30 days
Mazzilli, Lee (1986) 1B 1 2.52M Game 5 1 additional day
Blowers, Mike (1993) 3B 1 1.64M Game 7 1 additional day
Burgess, Smoky (1954) C 2 4.06M Game 12 2 additional days
Burgess, Smoky (1954) C 2 4.06M Game 20 1 additional day
Burgess, Smoky (1954) C 2 4.06M Game 23 1 additional day
Jamieson, Charlie (1927) LF 1 2.38M Game 26 2 additional days
Burgess, Smoky (1954) C 2 4.06M Game 27 2 additional days
Royster, Jerry (1982) 3B 1 2.01M Game 30 3 additional days
Burgess, Smoky (1954) C 2 4.06M Game 44 4 additional days
McDowell, Sam (1965) P - 8.09M Game 52 3 additional days
Royster, Jerry (1982) 3B 1 2.01M Game 49 10 additional days

The post about Smoky Burgess has me curious about catcher injuries. Since Burgess only played 100-110 games the majority of his career, is there some factor where a catcher injury roll frequency, even it is stated the same as a position player, somehowe gets hit more often to factor in the days off most catchers get? Never heard that discussed on here before so probably doesn't happen, but was curious if such a factor existed for catchers.

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