100 Win Curse - A Perfect Case Study

Just had this team finish with 102 wins in a 24 Team League. (Got swept the final night of the season because I had as many a 6 backups in the lineup to protect my team against playoff injuries.)

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1683835

They led the league in Wins, Run Differential and Pythagorean Record.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/459614

13 more wins than any other team and nearly +100 on run differential over any other team.

It has been suggested that 100 win teams in 12 team leagues were successful because they built their team to beat their 3 divisional opponents and that it is much harder to win 100 games in a 24 team league.

Let's see how we do!

Just remember, even the best team at the outset of an 8-team tournament probably doesn't have much more than a 25% chance of winning the championship. Last year's Dodgers heading into the LDS for example https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/pla ... 2021-10-06

This is a perfect Case Study. You faced the Otters 6 times during the regular season winning 5 of 6. However you never faced the top pitcher Chance in those 6 games.


You did get to beat the cheapest pitcher Denny at 3.87 twice and the second cheapest pitcher Newhouser twice and went 1-1 against Pelty. Now you will face 4 of 6 games against Chance and Pelty who accounted for 46 wins and a .633 winning percentage which is higher than your regular season win percentage. So those two pitchers are favored against you if there was a line in Vegas, which means you need to either get lucky and win 2 of those 4 or else beat the lower level pitchers where you are a big favorite 100% of the time.

The odds of a team winning 3 in a row with an 80% chance of winning an individual game - which is my estimate of your winning against the two cheaper pitchers an individual is 51%. Drop the win probability to 70% and the chance of sweeping falls to 34%. Assumming the Otters have a 55/45 advantage with their top two pitchers there is a 40% chance that the Otters will win either 3 or 4 of those games. Which leaves you a 60% chance of getting to your advantage where you have a 89% chance of winning 2 of 3 and a 51% chance of winning 3 of those 3.


The Otters are perfectly healthy and with good pitching and their 5 million reliever rested and ready to go they will provide a tough challenge. With Bonds, Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey and Walker all ready to go, is a loss to this team going to be much of a surprise? Do you really think you are better than a 55/45 favorite in the series? vs the Otters with Chance and Pelty pitch with a rested Rob Dibble and no injuries?

Just had this team finish with 102 wins in a 24 Team League. (Got swept the final night of the season because I had as many a 6 backups in the lineup to protect my team against playoff injuries.)

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1683835

They led the league in Wins, Run Differential and Pythagorean Record.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/459614

13 more wins than any other team and nearly +100 on run differential over any other team.

It has been suggested that 100 win teams in 12 team leagues were successful because they built their team to beat their 3 divisional opponents and that it is much harder to win 100 games in a 24 team league.

Let's see how we do!

Also this team had a losing division record and actually was 2-10 against a divisional team with good defensive catcher Sundberg to stop the stealing. Best reliever for Otters with a +7 hold.

Just had this team finish with 102 wins in a 24 Team League. (Got swept the final night of the season because I had as many a 6 backups in the lineup to protect my team against playoff injuries.)

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1683835

They led the league in Wins, Run Differential and Pythagorean Record.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/459614

13 more wins than any other team and nearly +100 on run differential over any other team.

It has been suggested that 100 win teams in 12 team leagues were successful because they built their team to beat their 3 divisional opponents and that it is much harder to win 100 games in a 24 team league.

Let's see how we do!

Also this team had a losing division record and actually was 2-10 against a divisional team with good defensive catcher Sundberg to stop the stealing. Best reliever for Otters with a +7 hold.

So you're saying there's a chance .......

So lost first two games as in the second game when your staarting pitcher got to FO after gving up 3 hits as fatigued in the 9th inning with a one run lead, Ed Farmer was brought in to face Willie Randolph who he waked and then luckily got the switch hitter to hit into a double play ending the inning, but the fatigued Lefty Grove had already given up the game. Robinson got a single at F2 and Ortiz walked at F0


Also apparently for some reason 0.69 Wathan is marked as a defensive sub as he was brought in the top of the 8th with no injury or pinch hitting and he is worse defensively than Kendall and after Brock the leadoff hitter got a single in the bottom of the ninth instead of stealing against the rested Dibble brought in (the difference between Dibble and Ed Farmer is pretty enormous I think) Wathan 0.69 Wathan H&R's down 2 runs. Stealing bases almost every time a leadoff hitter gets on got Frisch out to start two innings but I assume that is the game plan.

So now these next two games are key, must wins on the road. With Dibble probably available for only 1 of the games, but will likely be with the best itcher Newhouser who also has a -2 hold which is limiting success to your best basestealers to 75% even if they get a good lead and 60% most of the time. So I expect to see 3 outs on the basepaths against NewHouser but your hitting should be decent. I forsee a split here but you really can't afford that, so best you take Wathan off as your defensive sub if you have that checked. And you might want to check your staarting pitchers down to don't remove before F8 instead of F0 and set your bullpen to aggressive and all your relief pitchers to quick hookk or your season is going to be over.

So you're saying there's NOT a chance ....

Rich's team was finally victim of the 100 win CURSE... being swept in 3...

I just swept a 101 win team out of the semis, even though he handled me pretty good in the regular season, winning 8 of 12 from me...nothing to see here.

I just swept a 101 win team out of the semis, even though he handled me pretty good in the regular season, winning 8 of 12 from me...nothing to see here.

Congratulations Nev - on your way to another championship in your illustrious career.