Did HAL "normalize" Pedro after game 121?

You tell me ...

Pedro's record stood at an amazing 28-3 after his start in game 121 ...

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/player/36 ... 292/459761

He finished with a record of 30-8, meaning he went 2-5 down the stretch.

Anecdotally, Pedro gave up 5 runs in a start only 2 times in his first 31 starts between games 1 - 121. He gave up 5 or more runs in 3 of his final 10 starts starting with game 125.

Is it the previously theorized normalization or just bad luck???

It's just bad luck

I’ll answer your question with a question - do you think there was any good luck involved in Pedro going 28-3 through 121 games? Why should good outcomes be expected to continue indefinitely, while bad outcomes are immediately attributed to black boxes?

I’ll answer your question with a question - do you think there was any good luck involved in Pedro going 28-3 through 121 games? Why should good outcomes be expected to continue indefinitely, while bad outcomes are immediately attributed to black boxes?

It's a 60 mill league, Pedro's salary is probably double that of any other pitcher in the league, so while 28-3 was as I believe I said, amazing, and if I didn't I said it now. Why would he suddenly become so average???

I'm just asking the question because he was on pace for the single best season I have ever seen from a pitcher after 31 starts and then suddenly, he became just another guy.

Yes,
HAL normalized Pedro.

See the thing is this is not any sort of isolated incident, it happens frequently-
and before any of the blunt objects say it...
YES it happens the other way all the time, where a guy has been struggling all season and
magically starts bringing up their stats too.

I’ll answer your question with a question - do you think there was any good luck involved in Pedro going 28-3 through 121 games? Why should good outcomes be expected to continue indefinitely, while bad outcomes are immediately attributed to black boxes?

It's a 60 mill league, Pedro's salary is probably double that of any other pitcher in the league, so while 28-3 was as I believe I said, amazing, and if I didn't I said it now. Why would he suddenly become so average???

I'm just asking the question because he was on pace for the single best season I have ever seen from a pitcher after 31 starts and then suddenly, he became just another guy.

Of the 10 games he pitched he gave up 2 or less runs in 7 of those 10 outings. In his first 13 starts he threw 7 shutouts and 5 one run games, include a few relief efforts, I assume you thought those should continue for a 0.44 ERA? He also had a a run of 16 of 18 games going 9 innings while being a S7, pitching 100 more innings than his card while having a lower ERA by 1/2 run while having the same WHIP. I guess these ATG players aren't quite as good as the average National Leaguer in 1997.

Let's look at some details game 149 one of the 3 where he gave up more than 2 runs. He had a 5-0 lead after 7 innings but he was forced to pitch to 8 hitters after reaching his point of exhaustion, giving up 7 runs when up by 5 because he is marked do not remove before F0 most likely. Also lost a game down 2-0 when a team started with three hits off of the hitters card scoring 2 runs while your team did not score and got pulled for a pinch hitter and didn't get in the 7th.

I suppose you were looking for more like game 29 complete game shutout; game 31 2 innings shutout relief ball; game 33 9 inning complete game shutout for 3 wins picked up in 5 games. Should have been able to get 81 wins for him at that pace if not for the evil normilazation. Mind you this was a week after doing nearly the same thing a week before. In a 20 game stretch he won 9 games. Damn Normilazation.

So you're saying it could be normalization ...

No way to prove or disprove anything if you ask me, but it makes for interesting conversation if nothing else.

What you should do is get out your own dice and replay all 41 of his starts.
Then you can know for sure if things auto corrected or was it just a stretch of bad luck.

2 questions? what were his settings? what were the dice rolls that last stretch of games? by rolls, I mean how many on his card vs the hitter's cards?