POLL--ARod or Jeter: You get to choose

You guys probably know about Win Probability Added (WPA), basically just track how players do situationally in terms of affecting their team's win probability. Guy gets a hit, debit the pitcher and credit the hitter for whatever the change in win probability is. It's a bit crude but can help determine how "clutch" a guy really is, that type of thing. So, within the last few years Baseball Reference added WPA to their postseason stats, but they also added Championship Win Probability Added (cWPA), which is much the same as WPA but tracks every postseason event in terms of its effect on winning the championship, rather than just the individual game. Anyway I just pulled up Jeter and Rodriguez fully expecting Jeter's cWPA to dwarf Rodriguez's, but *record scratch*

Jeter: +1.2%
Rodriguez: +17.7%

And this isn't even accounting for defense. I specifically remember one of the games in that World Series against Philly ending on a groundball up the middle that any other shortstop would've gotten to... Obviously he did make other great defensive plays and contributed a lot to all those rings, but man, was not expecting those cWPA numbers.

AROD was mentally weak, one world series ring and that was because he moved over to third base and watched Jeter play. While Jeter is hitting 407 in the World Series AROD is hitting a pedestrian .250 . Now if you are just putting a bunch of numbers in a computer and rolling a simulation with the computer having no pressure, and don't have to listen to AROD drone on effecting the rest of your team, or the computer looking to overclock itself in violation of cometitive rules, then AROD for sure.

But if you want a baseball player you take Jeter. You need to factor in the asshole factor, he had great talent but did stupid stuff like grabbing a ball and knocking it out of pitchers mitt in Game 6 of a league championship game. Even AROD famously said best thing that happened to him in baseball was to not play in 2014 because he realized he was just a major league jerk. His moniker among other professional players in MLB was MR APRIL(he holds the major league record for most home runs in the month of April. In 2006 he was choking so bad in the ALDS he was dropped to eighth in the batting order. He claimed he only took steroids illegally (twice) because of the pressure he felt to live up to his contract.

In 40 lifetime games in the first round of the playoffs AROD is a .242 hitter with a .737 OPS lifetime he was a career .259 hitter in the playoffs with .828 OPS. Jeter was a .343 avg hitter with a .916 OPS in 66 games of the first round playoffs and a career .308 avg with .838 OPS, he had 20 playoff Home Runs to ARODS 13. I am sure AROD was just getting bad rolls. A bettter computer program may have fixed most of his issues.

It's like the difference between Patrick Ewing and Michael Jordan. One wants muscles and stats the other wants to win championships. But I am sure people can make their case.

...or the computer looking to overclock itself in violation of com[p]etitive rules, then AROD for sure.

This elicited a giggle from me--well played!

I know this is not a new topic, but the latest events and the docu-series resurfaced it. I find it intriguing because advanced stats can predict a lot, but they do have real-life limitations that I would assert are (were?) the beauty of the game.

My opinion is this is one of those limits, because I bet the Yankees would have had less success without Jeter if ARod were their SS for 20 years.

But in 50 years if someone looks at the stats, that would likely be lost and the rational conclusion would be as Max said at the outset--slam dunk ARod.

I wouldn't pick either of them but not for any of the reasons stated.
Both Jeter and Arod were great players, had tremendous talent, and got tons of press.
Both of them were arrogant (in different ways), AROD used PEDs, and both benefited from being in very strong lineups most of their careers. AROD coasted on his talent, particularly in his later years.

Post WWII SS's I would take over either of those guys:

1) Cal Ripkin. Not as fast or quick as either of them, but Cal played perhaps the best positional SS anywhere. Cal had 7 seasons with fewer than 10 errors. Cal had good power, good RBI man. Not to say that Jeter is not a great player, but there is significant data to indicated that defensively Derek was way overrated.

2) The Wizard. No explanation needed. Most athletic SS of all time.

3) Mark Belanger. Perhaps the most overlooked SS in the modern game. STRAT rarely gave him a "1" defensively, yet I know of quite a few Orioles pitchers that thanked their lucky stars that Mark was out there when they were pitching. I did a video with Jim Palmer, and asked him what he and Earl Weaver were always at odds about, and he told me that Earl would want to pinch hit for Belanger in the late innings, and Jim hated that. Palmer said that Belanger was worth at least a run a game if not more. There are those that say Palmer benefited stats wise more than any modern day HOF pitcher,--it was because of Belanger, Robinson and Blair.

4) Ernie Banks. Maybe not as good defensively as AROD and JETER, but I would take his bat and clubhouse karma over any of those guys. Winning the MVP for a last place team speaks volumes. I watched Ernie play live a lot in the 60s, the guy was clutch and had the best attitude of anyone out there. You put Banks in any of those Yankee lineups that AROD and JETER played on, and Banks would match their batting stats no sweat.

It's like the difference between Patrick Ewing and Michael Jordan. One wants muscles and stats the other wants to win championships. But I am sure people can make their case.

Umm Patrick Ewing was NEVER about stats or muscle he was ALL about winning, problem was he never had a bonafide star to complement his game and he had to go up against the greatest player in the game who actually did.

This argument is easy. Jeter for real life. A-Rod for strat.

Jeter was special and the face of baseball. A-Rod was like Barry Bonds. Huge stats, tiny heart.

It's like the difference between Patrick Ewing and Michael Jordan. One wants muscles and stats the other wants to win championships. But I am sure people can make their case.

Umm Patrick Ewing was NEVER about stats or muscle he was ALL about winning, problem was he never had a bonafide star to complement his game and he had to go up against the greatest player in the game who actually did.

This argument is easy. Jeter for real life. A-Rod for strat.

Jeter was special and the face of baseball. A-Rod was like Barry Bonds. Huge stats, tiny heart.

Ewing got to the NBA finals once and his scoring dropped off from 29 pts regular season with 50.3% shooting to 36% shooting with 18 pts in finals, failing to break 20 points in 5 of 7 games or even get 4 assists in a game in the finals. He was like AROD a GREAT regular season player. He was a loser in the playoffs consistently. In 139 playoff games he managed to score over 30 in just 13 of them. Despite averaging 25+ points in regular season most of his career.
It took Michael Jordan 15 games in the playoffs to do that.

Consider in playoff games EWING under 20pts in 50% of his games Jordan 3.5% He is AROD esque
JORDAN PLAYOFF GAME SCORING SUMMARY
PTS
10-19 6
20-29 64
30-39 71
40-49 30
50+ 8
EWING PLAYOFF SCORING SUMMARY
0-9 12
10-19 59
20-29 53
30-39 11
40-49 2

In Strat, I'd pick A-Rod (in a high cap league). In real life, Derek Jeter. In a low cap league in SOM, Jeter.

Same Hack. And it seems a few other folks.

From the results, I think we have an equal sampling of Joe Torres (the people) and Joe Girardis (the "book") out there (no offense Steve--mo' Yankees )

Seriously--I think Joe Girardi would vote ARod.

I may be simple minded. I think it could almost be a leadership case study. Granted--there is no "right" answer as Max said especially because we won't ever know the alternate realities like out of an Andy Cummings fantasy league.

Though those who pick ARod for real life are clearly misguided. Just kidding. A little.

Jeter back out front?! Where are all the Jeter haters?

There they are. Ha.
I may be easily dumbfounded most of the time but I find this fascinating.
There is a (plurality) belief the Yankees would have been more successful/more dominant during Jeter's time, with ARod at SS.

Even if just saying pre-2004...flipping ARod to the Yanks and Jeter to the Mariners and Rangers.

I find that a strange paradox of the choice, because it does not seem a likely result although that is the logical extension of the ARod choice. Especially because the metrics delta is not subtle--it's significant--so to say it wouldn't have a net positive impact on the team would be illustrating a paradox of the metrics' lack of predictive utility. Because at the same time the metrics compel selection of ARod.
And that is a choice of following the metrics we track instead of the characteristics we don't measure.

Lastly, I will say the Yankees have typically been a team that did not build talent from young ages and instead used the purse. It makes them easily hate-able. I think Bob Watson/Gene Michael started a temporary trend that started to pay dividends in 1996, and honestly, which I think began to wane just before 2004.

Super cool--appreciate the participation and thoughts!

Curious how far this will stretch...what if the choice was between Jeter and Bonds?