NLD 61 - The Asterisk Season

Steve, I think you are ignoring JTJ's ratings!! You are not supposed to be doing that! He said:

"East - Two race between Jeep and KLX. Randal and Steve at the bottom with Steve out of the race."

I am doing my part by being in last place. Although, I have won 2/3 of my last four series' and STILL lost a game in the standings to Steve.

Joe, no need to do the ratings in the future if teams are going to be different than the ratings!

I'll agree to let Navarez play if you do the same for Schwarber.

LOL. Yeah, I think I got the better of that deal!

Joe, no need to do the ratings in the future if teams are going to be different than the ratings!

LOL Yeah. There's always one team that does better than the ratings expect and one that does worse. In this case, I assume that it's mostly due to fewer injuries than expected which affects all the other ratings. Injury teams are always a wild card. You never know when (if) they'll rear their ugly heads.

My team can't win at home, which means I clearly picked the wrong park!

My team can't win at home, which means I clearly picked the wrong park!

my team is destined to be .500 or worse

My team can't win at home, which means I clearly picked the wrong park!

Yeah, I hate when that happens. However, being -7 in one run games doesn't help.

my team is destined to be .500 or worse

Have faith in the ratings KLX!


Let's take a look at the races with 51 games left:

East: Steve keeps defying the ratings, but really no one is out of it although randal has to climb 7 games over 3 teams... Ratings would say that Jeep and KLX will make a run at Steve and randal will fall off.
Central: Pretty much a 2 team race. JTJ has closed the gap to one game on Semper, but hasn't spent a day alone in first the whole season. Pretty much what the ratings say except that Dale is hanging in there better than they would expect.
West: Any of the teams *could* make a run with all the divisional games left, but Miller and Stones have a big hill to climb. Big A and Spider appear to have the upper hand. Ratings have this division pretty much a tossup, but wouldn't surprise them to see Miller make a move
WC Standings:

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JTJ           --
Spider       -2
Jeep         -3
KLX          -4

Yep, my team was making a run —- then they’ve lost 7 in a row. That won’t do it!

We're scuffling a bit right now. Still hanging on to a playoff spot but just can't quite get on top of Semper. Hopefully our 1 run record improves as well as the bphr ratio.

I did the park ratings. As a reminder, if your rating is enough better you get +1, if worse, -1 if it's close enough 0. These aren't adjusted for games in your division. They follow the ratings pretty closely, but Jeep would stand out here as a bigger difference than might be expected. (As a reminder, these are just formulas and there may be really good reasons your team is better or worse than these ratings suggest. These aren't my opinions, just numbers from turning the crank for your amusement)

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Team…   Adv
semper   17
JTJ...   15
jeep..   10
miller   4
klx...   3
spider   2
stoney   -1
hawk..   -5
randal.   -5
big a.   -6
stevep   -14
dale..   -20


Bits of info that aren't readily apparent from the above.
Best home teams
Semper 11
jtj 10
klx 10
miller 10
Jeep 9

Worst home teams
Dale -10
Big a -5
Steve -5

Best road
Semper 8
jtj 6
Jeep 6

Worst Road
Dale -11
Steve -11
klx -8
miler -8

Here are your ratings in indivdual parks

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Team..   Ntnl   Orcl   PNC.   Trop   Petc   Guar   Dodg   Ring   gab.   loan    Kauf   camd
Big A.   2301   2196   2221   2175   2203   2324   2396   2196   2407   2216   2260   2387   
stoney   2399   2260   2283   2242   2281   2446   2423   2260   2499   2259   2321   2488   
Miller   2337   1954   1958   1951   2106   2639   2533   1955   2686   1925   1911   2693   
Semper   2632   2627   2644   2614   2601   2594   2580   2627   2620   2631   2682   2612   
stevep   1896   1511   1488   1527   1709   2337   2023   1511   2283   1493   1377   2303   
jeep..   2499   2401   2424   2383   2409   2500   2506   2401   2560   2389   2461   2547   
Spider   2310   2313   2324   2302   2295   2299   2288   2313   2313   2335   2336   2305   
Hawk..   2284   2264   2289   2244   2239   2227   2332   2264   2310   2266   2340   2285   
KLX...   2084   1894   1885   1899   2022   2308   2743   1894   2434   2006   1823   2404   
Randal   2362   2229   2262   2205   2219   2369   2189   2230   2403   2191   2323   2401   
Dale..   1800   1711   1735   1692   1689   1756   1479   1711   1743   1625   1773   1759   
JTJ...   2617   2363   2373   2355   2448   2769   2760   2363   3128   2339   2351   2830   


I havne't done the calcs- but I think my team has the lowest park std dev. It doesn't matter WHERE we play, we have about the same rating everywhere.

Bad news for my team is that I have the worst intradivision rating in the West. That is not a good sign for the final push.

I havne't done the calcs- but I think my team has the lowest park std dev. It doesn't matter WHERE we play, we have about the same rating everywhere.

In my ratings that is, indeed true. Semper and Hawk are also low stdev.

Well, we enter into the final stretch of intradivisional play (with one series exception) with the races close for the most part
3 teams in the east, 2 in the Central and all four in the West

Four teams within a game of the WC too.

Really only 3 teams are out of it and Randal *could* with a miracle run make it interesting in the East.

Buckle up fellas, going to be a wild ride.

Ouch, Kirk went down for 15 (13 remaining now). I'm facing 6 LHSP in the next 13 (out of 30 remaining). May have to make a move.

A game out of the WC and 3 behind Semper. Injuries are never good. This team hasn't had a lot of luck in that area.

Happy Thanksgiving to the NLD!!!!