Small ball...advicce, criticism etc.

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roniwas

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Re: Small ball...advicce, criticism etc.

PostWed Jan 11, 2023 10:02 am

Lots of questions will be forthcoming, but first, I'm not sure of the reasoning behind RHBP HR on the pitcher's card. Explain please.
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Mattw0909

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Re: Small ball...advicce, criticism etc.

PostWed Jan 11, 2023 12:46 pm

Generally speaking in a small ball ballpark, all my pitchers will have ball park hrs on their cards. The rh part is probably due to the league construction. Many times I’ll use the .68m ossie owroll as my closer or setup guy depending how cheap I’m making my bullpen. And I d also like to stress the outfield arms. Ichiro or Pete Hill in centerfield are two of my favorites in those cases.
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MtheB

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Re: Small ball...advicce, criticism etc.

PostWed Jan 11, 2023 2:26 pm

great discussion.
in small ball parks, by using every possible opportunity to gain an edge, can make a difference. When you add up
all those factors, that is what makes for a winning team, and egvrich is one of the best at it.

The BP HR issue is a vital in terms of value---you want pitchers with lots of BP HRs, and lots of hitters who don't have them....
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roniwas

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Re: Small ball...advicce, criticism etc.

PostWed Jan 11, 2023 3:31 pm

Well, several changes have been made. Any further comments? Really, short of starting a new team that better uses the dollars, I don't think there is much more that I can do with this team. Agreed?
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FrankieT

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Re: Small ball...advicce, criticism etc.

PostWed Jan 11, 2023 8:22 pm

Oh geez--definitely don't take any more salary cap hits. I thought you were asking during pre-season last I saw.
I think will be tough--still too much in pitching.

1. What is my basis for saying too much pitching? You might say the game is 50% pitching and 50% hitting based on the rolls from either a pitcher or hitter card. But in pricing investments, you have to account for the defense rolls (the "X" rolls on the pitcher cards). Those rolls go to your defenders via separate charts and are accounted for as part of the hitters' salaries.

2. What is the cost of that? Like I wrote below, X rolls are the same 30 rolls and the same frequency spread across positions (ie SS-->2b--etc). Those 30 rolls are about 28% of the rolls off that pitcher card. So, the rolls are actually 50% hitter card, and about 36% pitcher card directly and the other 14% from defense (ie the 28% of pitcher card "X" rolls).
This is why as a first guess, you would budget 64% for hitting and 36% for pitching (very coarse but a starting point). Which at 80M means about 29M.

But that is not an exact science of course. In the same way, this why one must also account for effect of their park on card valuations somehow.
In your park you have some wiggle room but I think you are going to have trouble scoring runs. But use it as an experiment and see what happens. Everybody's style is different. You may find something new that works.
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roniwas

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Re: Small ball...advicce, criticism etc.

PostWed Jan 11, 2023 9:00 pm

That's why I said short of starting a new team with fresh dollars, I'm pretty much locked in for the season (I'm still 4.7M above the cap). Your previous advice has been very helpful for the construction of a new team.
I still would like an answer as to the reasoning for BPHR on RH P cards. I must really be dense.
A 29-30M cap for pitching seems a little low for my liking, but you have had more experience than I, so that will be my next attempt. Again, thanks for all your feedback and hopefully future attempts will get more favorable approval from you and the rest of the small ballers out there. Also sorry I didn't hear from egvrich.
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FrankieT

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Re: Small ball...advicce, criticism etc.

PostWed Jan 11, 2023 11:45 pm

You are not dense--I am verbose!
Oh, the RHP BPHRs--I only mentioned that as an example of the type of slight adjustments I might make in this league because you had a few RH HR parks...but then ultimately I was like--there are so many non-HR parks it really doesn't matter.

But if say you had two RH HR parks in your division, you would optimally adjust your strategy a little from straight small ball. Meaning, if you had a few pitchers with lots of RH BPHRs, you may adjust that a little to have a few less.
Same thing for RH batters--if you have no RH power at all in that situation, you will be fine at home, but so will those opponents when they are home, so you may need to adjust a little. And again--it goes back to the schedule weights--how many times will you play in RH HR parks, and go from there with adjusting the weight of your investments likewise.

My overall point is when folks say just focus on your home park and that is it are missing half the schedule. The half played away could be a significantly different environment at a weight that matters, or not. But to throw it away without consideration is not optimal strategy.
Last edited by FrankieT on Thu Jan 12, 2023 12:05 am, edited 3 times in total.
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FrankieT

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Re: Small ball...advicce, criticism etc.

PostWed Jan 11, 2023 11:52 pm

I hesitate to post sample teams because I view each one as an anecdote that is only valid in its own league setup, but to prove I am not blowing smoke on how I construct them for smallball:

Pitching investments and player palette I think is in general how I explained it. And note--sometimes you do need to adjust because multiple people make wholesale roster changes in your division at 10PM opening night! But there is no templated right answer--there is only a first guess guide and then achieving balance and advantage.

60M
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1590975

80M
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1631120
Less stolen bases but some XBHs. And this one may not seem like much--but to have the best record and capture the flag in this league--there were a lot of great managers so that was humbling.

100M
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1678184

Stuck with ATG9. Similar examples from ATG8 but the player names are different and different prices = different game.
Last edited by FrankieT on Thu Jan 12, 2023 12:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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MaxPower

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Re: Small ball...advicce, criticism etc.

PostThu Jan 12, 2023 12:10 am

I find when I try the pitchers parks I still end up paying for a bunch of ballpark homers anyway (as well as a lack of them from pitchers), because as Frankie says, half your games are on the road after all. Suggests to me that while expensive, BPHR may still be underpriced.
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FrankieT

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Re: Small ball...advicce, criticism etc.

PostThu Jan 12, 2023 12:13 am

MaxPower wrote:I find when I try the pitchers parks I still end up paying for a bunch of ballpark homers anyway (as well as a lack of them from pitchers), because as Frankie says, half your games are on the road after all. Suggests to me that while expensive, BPHR may still be underpriced.

Indeed. I think the underpriced part is probably true. In fact, it seems to me qualitatively that the differential value is non-linear.
I think a couple-few BPHRs in smallball are fine and a good hedge. Get past a couple few and it seems to get cost-prohibitive, like at 5+

Oh and in our current 80M league, I definitely did not adjust appropriately for facing 50-60% lefties and all the lefty parks....killing me
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