2022 Finals Draft

I make note that - yes - #1 and #2 landed in the same division - but ALSO - the other two players that landed there were 2 of the 4 semi-finals winners. #10 and #12. Seems like that might tend to even things out ??

Also, it wasn't me who set the league to start right away. As far as I recall, the deadline for Friday evening has always been 7 pm pst / 10 pm est. I was in the draft when it ended and we were past that time. Barely. I posted in there that I thought we were past the deadline so I fully expected a week of waiting. Not what actually happened. The only setting that I was able to manipulate was to start the first monday after the league filled, or in this case - after the draft.

I was just as shocked as the rest of you when it got off the ground on Monday night. But as I recall, that is what you wanted !?!

MM

Moose,

No one is proposing the commish did anything wrong at all. It went perfectly fine. In fact, it went great despite some early sand in the gears unrelated to the commish.

We got exactly what we all asked for. You were flexible on that.

The randomization thing is a non-issue, which is why I highlighted it. It's randomized--so the comment on this thread didn't make sense. Didn't want us to start down some rabbit hole again with this capstone league of all things.

cheers

While I'm not participating this year, looks like an awesome lineup of stars. Friction and acrimony is part of the sausage-making process in trying to get it right, certainly for such highly charged competitions -- my advice is to let it go, bygones be bygones, that's all behind everyone now, just enjoy the finals season ahead, everyone.

Hack! you are missed buddy!

Cristano fires the last shot, dropping Lundgren for Waddel. I kind of think Max saw that one coming, I kind of did (told Eric O that if it were me, I'd go with an all lefty starting rotation in this league)

He'd just told me about an hour earlier that he was actually thinking of going back to 4 righties, then pulled that switcharoo 2 minutes before the deadline. Pretty desperate if you ask me, but it won't be enough.

I agree it won't be enough.

Hi STEVE F: I agree, it might not be enough, but so far, my team of all 0.5s is holding up decently, and Max's prediction of +300 run differential in this league is looking rather bleak. Max could still end up winning this entire thing, his team is better than some of the teams in this finals league, but Max did make a couple incredibly HUGE errors this league in terms of team construct. I didn't really want to comment on it until the drop penalty was 20%, but I am happy to explain the ways in which Max gave away this league if necessary.

Hey, I'm always interested in insights from the very best players.

Max's prediction of +300 run differential in this league is looking rather bleak.

I'd say the bleakest thing about that prediction was the fact that it never happened. Weird thing to lie about, especially when there's a perfectly good donkey-brained prediction of mine in the comment you're quoting that you could just as easily roast me for. Just more desperate vibes I guess, which again is weird because you're in first place.

Max lucked out with ballpark selection. Lefty was the way to go in this league. I left my ballpark to chance, and randomly got assigned Minute Maid, even though it was 4th on my queue. I strongly preferred small ball and lefty. But as part of my draft all 0.5m players, I also left my ballpark to chance too.

In my humble opinion, the biggest error Max made this year is he didn't run with four LHSP. That was probably the biggest donkey-brained move I've seen in a long long time. By my calculations, Max's error in this assessment cost him a whopping SEVEN expected wins. Max's second error was almost as brutal. He stacked a team consisting of extremely heavy righty killing batters. A wonderful strategy, except by my count Max will face close to 40% LHSP during this league. As you can see, his 6-26 record so far against LHSP is what is killing him. Also by my humble calculations, having a lineup that is that heavily skewed against RHSP is optimized when a team faces less than 20% LHSP, which is not even close to what Max will actually face in this league.

Also in my very humble opinion, I believe the overarching problem here is that there was a very limited thought process when Max made his team. Here is what Max did: He looked back and found one of his teams that had a +300 run differential, and just blindly copied that team for this league. A couple problems here, the first being that I have simulated that league and on average Max's team has a +140 run differential, so that +300 was (in large part) just an extreme version well past typical standard deviations. His +300 run differential is only achieved in roughly 5 out of 100 simulated leagues. A second problem was that +300 league was in a league with weaker managers than the finals. The quality of managers in this finals league is much better, one of the best I've come across. So I put the same +300 Max team in this league and it averages +70 run differential. Max is at +21 through 87 games so my simulated +70 seems fairly accurate.

I can only hope that this is something Max learns from. This entire league Max has been running around like a chicken with his head cut off. "OMG OMG OMG do I, like, go lefty, or do I like, keep Hornsby and go righty. Sigh. Like, help, what do I do." And then he throws out all these insults. Cristano, you cheattttttttted how could you pick up Waddell 5 minutes before the start of the seasonn. No fairrrrrrrrr." Haha get a clue buddy. The reason I was able to do that is cause you constructed a roster that was ripe to be exploited. Don't blame me for exploiting it. Don't be angry that I made adjustments. Be angry at yourself for loading up on lefty batters that mash righty pitching.

For point of reference, here is the team Max copied: https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1638894
And here is the league it was in: https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/455235
As you can see, Max ran with four RHSP in Shea. He only faced 25% LHSP, far less than the 40% he will face in this league. Also, a division mate of Max's had a -401 run diff, which likely padded Max's win diff. Blind copying sometimes works, but in my very humble opinion the quality of competition in this league is too good to blind copy paste.

Based on my analysis, I have Max's team as better than seven of the teams in this league. So he very well could make playoffs. Very well could win the entire league. These outcomes are certainly possible. The point here, to be made, is that Max left 11+ wins on the table because of his lack of understanding of how to construct a team. I hope this has been an educational experience for Max. And finally, it gives me great pleasure to say, welcome to the big leagues, bud!!!

I use the same method for constructing every team and none of it involves "copying" previous teams. Obviously the same players come up repeatedly but every team is tuned to the specific league environment. This team was tuned to face 27% LHP, no idea where you got 40% in the preseason. Obviously I have so far faced closer to 40% but there was nothing in the preseason to indicate that would be the case. But that difference in projected LHP% has indeed been keeping me down.

I also projected my LHPs would face 19% LHH and my RHPs would face 39% LHH. The idea that I should go with 4 LHPs in that environment is...interesting. Needless to say I do not agree with it. My actuals so far are 30% and 48% respectively so that's been hurting me as well. But again, there's nothing complicated about these preseason calculations and I used the same method I always use. The divergence from my projections might just be a quirk of my schedule, I haven't investigated it.

And then he throws out all these insults. Cristano, you cheattttttttted how could you pick up Waddell 5 minutes before the start of the seasonn. No fairrrrrrrrr." Haha get a clue buddy. The reason I was able to do that is cause you constructed a roster that was ripe to be exploited. Don't blame me for exploiting it. Don't be angry that I made adjustments. Be angry at yourself for loading up on lefty batters that mash righty pitching.

I never said it was "cheating" lol, I said it was cheap and desperate, and the hilarious part is you obviously agree with that assessment because you tried to convince the rest of us that it was not a pre-planned deadline switcharoo but rather just reacting in real-time to late moves made by someone in the other division. So I'm just glad we've moved beyond that obvious lie and you're now accurately describing what happened (other than lying about me calling it "cheating" but hey, maybe one day we'll leave that lie behind as well).

This is great fun. We have Cristano asserting his humility and Max asserting his boastful predictions were potentially wrong so far by approximately 500% but certainly not by 1000%.

Both great players and also good sports who do offer praise to good competition and are genuinely helpful to others, even with their accompanying bluster.

But let's be honest:

On Cristano--he will always be the first to toot his own horn too, but right now he claimed that honor because he drafted a 50 cent team and proxied a stadium (!) Uh-hello! No one else has done that. If he wins, I'd be the first to say all hail Cristano. (BTW--that is what is great about ATG--skill over luck of the draft)

On MaxPower--he flooded the zone with a few exuberant out-loud prognostications so it is more likely one will eventually stick, but to think we wouldn't be hearing about his nearly accurate prediction if he was sitting at +125 RunDiff is just silly. Of course we would, and of course that is not unexpected nor a big deal. It is the spice of life.

Let's not forget there was a whole lot of "game over" going on right before the first pitch.
My only prediction was below a few pages ago--and I stand by it. I think more appropriately: Game-On!

...we had this same discussion last year with a focus on the big dogs and yet while Max (and myself) were among the last four, it was two guys who just quietly kept winning their games that met for the crown.

So before we crown anyone for their achievements, it will be interesting to see what happens. There are the most likely outcomes that could evolve, but there are many ways this can all proceed unexpectedly. Let's not lose sight of the fact that djp_77 put together a Mile High team--geez we all know that can be a wildcard in the mix, so it will be fun to watch it all unfold, not to mention there are two other interesting divisions that could spoil the annointments.