Sun Apr 02, 2023 11:46 pm
freeman--that is just a reasonable benchmark based on pure chance, in the same way that a 33% playoff rate is a reasonable benchmark in a 12 team league, ie 4 teams of 12 make it. Nothing to buy--just a comparative fact.
In the same way, of 4 playoff teams, 1 in 4 would make it--25%--if left to pure chance.
So for 30 teams, if the best record team won 8 times, they outperformed pure chance--27% to 25% if we are picky, though that implies precision that doesn't exist.
The point is--the example given still beat expectation of pure chance so it is a moot point.
Else what is the expectation? Best record is an auto-win? 90%? 70%? it is nonsense, especially when considering that best record was typically against teams that were very weak, yadda yadda as outlined below.