14 games under PYTHAG ... Ouch

Poor Charles finished in 6th place in his division 14 games below his projected results despite the 3rd best run differential in the entire league at +130. Needless to say, he missed the playoffs.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/expanded/463997

18-31 in one run games will do that to you. He was 8-0 in games he won by more than 10 runs.

Does a wins of 20-0 18-2 and 17-3 count for more actual wins? 97 of the positive 130 came in those 8 games.

18-31 in one run games will do that to you. He was 8-0 in games he won by more than 10 runs.

Does a wins of 20-0 18-2 and 17-3 count for more actual wins? 97 of the positive 130 came in those 8 games.

That's insane, pretty much explains the results. Thanks for digging into that.

It is an interesting topic, especially for the sabre acolytes. I don't profess to have answers, only anecdotes.

I just finished 11 games under pythag in the BS finals league, and I think I finished about where I'd expect. I know that sounds weird. https://365.strat-o-matic.com/league/expanded/464012

But in my case,
* 9 shutouts by Santana and a handful more by others affects the chance for large differentials, +76
* Whereas when I was shutout, it was -52
* I was 23-5 in games decided by more than a 5 run difference. And only 25-24 in 1-run games.

That dynamic was weird for a smallball team but I didn't get any heartburn* from the pythag stat because quite frankly it is indeed descriptive, not predictive. It is highly dependent on the environment, which of course in SOM is not homogenized at all, unlike MLB.

We play to the extremes to gain an edge and it makes for occasional lopsided matchups that have outsized impacts on run differential, so the distribution of scores follows a more bimodal pattern of differentials in the tails.

Now one of the playoff teams managed to get almost 600 PAs each out of IRod (INJ 4) and Napoli (Inj 3) -- that is a great way to beat expectations in a different discussion of creating value differentials.

* Ok, the heartburn was admittedly mitigated by winning home field advantage

yeah...different pythag formula. Goodbye...

I was thinking: "Wow! Some pretty tough managers in that league!"

And then I realized I'd overlooked your statement, FrankieT, that this is the Barnstormer Finals. So, no surprise there, after all.

Teams are generally O-fer when they get shut out.

Ha bkeat--yes that is almost a certainty isn't it
Outta LF--granted it may be an atypical league setup, but it was still weird to me!

I had no complaints as I finished with the best record even being 11 under pythag.

But I thought it was noteworthy because smallball is my thing, and in my smallball escapades I have not usually been #1 in run diff, with the #1 league record, about .500 in one run games and then ALSO 11 games under pythag. It was weird to me.

So much so for the +/- statistic...

I've always felt it was so much overrated...

1 run game records are much more important...

I'm most disgusted the way my team went down the stretch...

Despite more than 100 HRs and 300 RBIS between them... Gibson and Howard went frozen cold in the last 30 games...

Oh well...

SOM LIFE IS A BITCH !!!

You Lucky Lukes should have tried Players Championship... it's quite a challenge...

You Lucky Lukes should have tried Players Championship... it's quite a challenge...

I noticed that the winner of Barnstormers, djp_77, entered the PC a couple of days ago. He's trying for the double that cristano came oh so close to achieving. Come join:

https://forum-365.strat-o-matic.com/com ... 464281f36d

You have to play at least 4 of 5 Events. Event 1 is closed but that still leaves Events 2 - 5 for you to play and qualify for the playoffs.