NERP and Catcher Defense

Man, I've used Tamargo (in '71 Shea), Moss, Lopata, Ferguson at Minute Maid and '41 Polo before! Not sure I ever will again though, and even now I am using Phelps for a small ball team, maybe gotta rethink that too.

A 1e4 at SS has a 7.2 NERP---1e10 has 5.9---2e22 is a neg .9
1e9 in LF/RF has a neg.9 NERP----3e9 has neg4.7----4e12 is a neg 8.2

What I find hard to believe is that a 1e9 corner outfielder has NEGATIVE value. Why?

Because

https://fliphtml5.com/zboo/vmaz

This brilliant article by Dean Carrano breaks down defensive nerp for position players.

Have an throwing NERP and a quickly made pb NERP. These were the assumptions/baselines the formulas were working off of:

-70% SB success rate (against all arms) -- childsmwc was talking about 65%

-5 arm = 60 SB attempts against
-4 arm = 70 SB attempts against
-3 arm = 80 SB attempts against
-2 arm = 92 SB attempts against
-1 arm = 108 SB attempts against
0 arm = 130 SB attempts against
+1 arm = 160 SB attempts against
+2 arm = 195 SB attempts against
+3 arm = 230 SB attempts against

-Season total for SB/CS throwing errors was "pro-rated" to the 108 PA DiamondDope card for NERP by dividing by 2.75.
THis would be 594 PAs as a hitter/catcher

-SB and throwing ERRORS were treated the same in this formula:
(TB * .318) + ((BB+HBP-CS-GIDP) * .333) + (H * .25) + (SB * .2) - (AB * .085)

-1 arms with a T-10 rating are considered "0" for NERP, so quite a few catchers have "positive" value ---- a (-4) T-0 has -1.14 NERP. Only dips to -1.11 for (-4) T-1 and -0.96 for a T-10. ***will post the spread of dNERP for T-ratings at different arms, it is rather progressive with is good***

-Catchers faced 5,600 defensive rolls x 45% of PAs with runners on base, that gives a catcher 63 pb-checks.

-pb were ~ same "value" as as 1-0 SB/CS. 1-0 SB/CS is 0.2 (season) NERP and I gave PBs 0.22 because of the more costly nature of slow guy on 3rd scoring on a pb vs just potential errors on steals.


All Together:

Range and Error again
E 1----- 2----- 3----- 4----- 5
0 -1.08 0.38 1.85 3.23 4.15
1 -0.88 0.58 2.03 3.41 4.32
2 -0.74 0.71 2.16 3.52 4.44
3 -0.53 0.91 2.35 3.70 4.61
4 -0.35 1.08 2.51 3.86 4.76
5 -0.15 1.28 2.70 4.04 4.94
6 0.06 1.47 2.89 4.22 5.11
7 0.20 1.60 3.01 4.34 5.23
8 0.40 1.80 3.20 4.52 5.40
9 0.54 1.93 3.32 4.64 5.52
10 0.75 2.13 3.51 4.82 5.69
11 0.96 2.33 3.70 5.00 5.86
12 1.13 2.50 3.86 5.16 6.02
13 1.34 2.70 4.05 5.34 6.19
14 1.48 2.83 4.18 5.46 6.31
15 1.69 3.03 4.37 5.64 6.48
16 1.82 3.16 4.49 5.76 6.60

Here's the NERP values for all levels of throwers at the same T-10 rating (just can't post ALL in this clunky format:
(-5) T-10 ---- -0.96 NERP
(-4) T-10 ---- -0.76 NERP
(-3) T-10 ---- -0.56 NERP
(-2) T-10 ---- -0.32 NERP
(-1) T-10 ---- 0.00 NERP
(0) T-10 ---- 0.44 NERP
(+1) T-10 ---- 1.04 NERP
(+2) T-10 ---- 1.74 NERP
(+2) T-10 ---- 2.44 NERP

Lotta room for good pb-ratings to "earn" Catchers alot of NERP, as I think alot of good catchers needs to get around 0 or "positive" NERP. Alot of catchers have pb-ratings below pb-5 etc. and I think they'll earn NERP:

Passed Balls
pb-0 = -1.51 NERP
pb-1 = -1.26
pb-2 = -1.01
pb-3 = -0.76
pb-4 = -0.50
pb-5 = -0.25
pb-6 = 0
pb-7 = 0.25
pb-8 = 0.50
pb-9 = 0.76
pb-10 = 1.01
pb-11= 1.26
pb-12= 1.51
pb-13= 1.76
pb-14= 2.02
pb-15= 2.27
pb-16= 2.52
pb-17= 2.77
pb-18= 3.02
pb-19= 3.28
pb-20= 3.53

Soooooo a 1(-3)e5,T-10(pb-4) has a ~dNERP of -1.21 (or positive 1.21) a boost to their card's NERP. Doesn't feel all that good but the lone -0.15 from 1e5 doesn't help much. These 3 "charts" estimate dNERP for all of catcher defense. ***not considering runs back from CS like childsmwc outlined!!! The numbers are kinda so muted already but I want to ~work that in. Doesn't account for ranges of 4s or 5s allowing more wp-chances from pitchers

I'll see how this makes Catchers fit in the ATG pool for price/NERP this weekend.

What doesn't sit right with me is the minimal NERP upgrade for better arms. It's clearest when looking at the SAME T-rating like the chart above:

Here's the NERP values for all levels of throwers at the same T-10 rating (just can't post ALL in this clunky format:
(-5) T-10 ---- -0.96 NERP
(-4) T-10 ---- -0.76 NERP
(-3) T-10 ---- -0.56 NERP
(-2) T-10 ---- -0.32 NERP
(-1) T-10 ---- 0.00 NERP
(0) T-10 ---- 0.44 NERP
(+1) T-10 ---- 1.04 NERP
(+2) T-10 ---- 1.74 NERP
(+2) T-10 ---- 2.44 NERP

A 0.2 NERP upgrade for each arm upgrade (for the super cannons like -3s, -4s and -5s) doesn't seem big enough. Going from that (-3) to a (+1) does net you an additional "1.6 NERP" which still seems pretty low? This is with a higher SB success rate of 70% vs childsmwc's suggested 65%. 70% would produce higher gains for throwing so... **Should the SB success rate stay the same for ALL throwers?

Apparently T-rating can produce as much or more value than arm: Going from a (-4) to a (-3) thrower would get you that 0.2 NERP, but going from a (-3), T-5 to a (-3), T-0 would net you 0.22 NERP.....

I think a a slower progressive curve on arms is justified. These proposed changes put more value in having a good arm.
**This isn't so much literal as SB against would come from Hold/Arm, so just the $ or NERP value changes from better arms

(-5) arm = 56 sb attempts against
(-4) arm = 67 sb attempts against (+11 or 19.6%)
(-3) arm = 80 sb attempts against (+13 or 19.4%)
(-2) arm = 95 sb attempts against (+15 or 18.8%)
(-1) arm = 113 sb attempts against (+18 or 18.9%
(0) arm = 134.5 sb attempts against (+21.5 or (19.0%)
(+1) arm = 160 sb attempts against (+25.5 or 19.0%)
(+2) arm = 190 sb attempts against (+32 or 20.0%)
(+3) arm = 230 sb attempts against (+38 or 19.8%)

*It is a slightly increasing rate except for the decpetive 19.6% and 19.4% for (-5) and (-4) arms. I think it's deserved as the overkill is good and you overpay for the overkill. Catcher's arms work with Pitcher Hold ratings and shouldn't just be rewarded with only ~6 less steals at the elite levels. Plus, ATG teams aren't equipped to perfectly respond to catcher inefficiency in throwing ie I don't think it should be pure exponential growth. ----but maybe these meh increase in percentages despite the increasing raw gains are a problem. Still gets closer to true value of throwing down a (-4) at catcher. Plus, catchers just seem to be remain to be "undervalued," so their unique ability to fill a role should be that much more valued here and there.

They and they alone should perhaps get a different injury multiplier because yeah, a 1 inj *15risk is just more valuable (rare?) at Catcher than anywhere else. But that's ~ a different thing that I don't think will blend into defense. Almost there on the formula if I just pink down those assumptions!

(-5) arm = 56 sb attempts against
(-4) arm = 67 sb attempts against (+11 or 19.6%)
(-3) arm = 80 sb attempts against (+13 or 19.4%)
(-2) arm = 95 sb attempts against (+15 or 18.8%)
(-1) arm = 113 sb attempts against (+18 or 18.9%
(0) arm = 134.5 sb attempts against (+21.5 or (19.0%)
(+1) arm = 160 sb attempts against (+25.5 or 19.0%)
(+2) arm = 190 sb attempts against (+32 or 20.0%)
(+3) arm = 230 sb attempts against (+38 or 19.8%)

Running a spot check on these and I get the same result for +2 but significantly fewer attempts for -3 (52 average attempts across 25 teams). How much data are you using to derive these figures? Are you normalizing for team WHIP?

I never thought too much about how much value is added for pitchers with excellent moves.

I know Arrietta can be a problem with his +6 hold rating.
And I've occasionally seen glimpses of talent from the $8.93 Johan Santana (-4).

But most people seem to avoid Tiant despite his -5 hold.

Labratory hit on one more value to strong arm catchers that doesn’t show up in your sb numbers, and that is they mitigate bad holds. The prices for pitchers takes into account the hold rating, so mitigating this impact has some value as well as the base sb impacts you are modeling but that requires you match up the right pitchers and catchers to maximize value. Also this one is likely not as significant but it is there in the pricing.

Running a spot check on these and I get the same result for +2 but significantly fewer attempts for -3 (52 average attempts across 25 teams). How much data are you using to derive these figures? Are you normalizing for team WHIP?

Thanks for input MaxPower! These are big-time estimates. childsmwc mentioned SB atttempt #s for '09 Mauer (-3) and '97 Piazza (+1). 80 SB attempts and 160 respectively. I asked if that model had a flat +20 increase and he said no---So my model you quoted uses that 80 and 160 for those numbers and big estimates for everything in between. *But these numbers are vital. I increased the boost great arms give but only a little bit. Should their SB attempts against be lower?

Labratory hit on one more value to strong arm catchers that doesn’t show up in your sb numbers, and that is they mitigate bad holds.

Exactly! You gotta in theory overpay for the "overkill." -6 hold MAXIMUM for the battery of Pitcher and Catcher obviously goes to waste in a literal sense, not to mention to contextual of what opposing teams are doing (R. Kiner vs R. Henderson, and OBP etc)

So these numbers shouldn't (?) as much be the true "accurate re-telling of what a -x arm does." On that note though MaxPower, how are YOU considering those catcher "arms"? As the battery or JUST the Catcher?