Billy Rubin wrote:The Kaat $3.88 is a decent card for the price.
x1,000,000
In SOM's bogus (no sample size!!!) Stats History tab in the player pool, Kaat has averaged 14-11 with a 4.24 ERA. Seems great to me! Especially considering alot of us search for cheapo SP who can win 40-50% of their decisions. We structure teams to where that's coming out waaaay ahead.
I think since ATG2 Kaat has been a little off-the-charts good. His price decrease from ATG8 to ATG9 was significant and he was palatable even at that inflated priced in ATG8 after being an iconic cards for so many versions. If you don't need the innings, it's just an advantage if the pricing formula dinged him (or any S6/S7) enough enough for being low END. He's cheap, so why pay for a S9 when you don't want your #4 on a small-ball team pitching 9? Kaat is the best S6 in the deck imho. Somehow, my pricing formula has him at 6.0% overpriced which is blasphemous!
BR Bal: -7.17 (seems great for price, despite hurt by vsR)
NERP Bal: 7.58 (seems fine)
other NERP: 1.94 (0.368 is from END. kinda high from bad 1e33 def, BP#s, low Ks and imbalance tax)
Total NERP: 9.52 -----> my formula says this should be $3.66, which isn't too different from $3.88, but that's 6.0%. My formula has a flaw with saying the $2mil pitchers (cheapest from which pricing suggestions are based on) are good values by not factoring what should be an increasing cost for each marginal NERP improvement.) It doesn't love alot of players in the "middle" as much.
Sticking with just Kaat, I think this is a little more fair because all of those things are slighly mitigate-able. Don't play in R-heavy league/division/ballpark/rotation spot. If you don't need the IP, who needs the S7* from a ~#4? We should only play guys when it's their ideal circumstances and when it is for Kaat, he's crazy surplus value. **My formula was for pricing for a career pool off ATG9 prices, so not especially for best ATG9 Values. Plus it assumes for far less exploitable Ballparks and Rosters etc.
Now, I don't play/pay many S6*s, but love me Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown and many S7*s at more elite price points