Who's making the semifinals

With 6 regular season games left in the Tournament, the managers ranked 1-17 are in (thru buffalo1974). Barring an 0-6 finish, jaywalker (456) is almost certainly in. taxchiefs (454) will be in if they make the playoffs but have gotten in a tough 00’s league and their current record of 90-66 puts them in first place but their division also has 1959elroy and canauscot at 89-67 and 87-69, so an 0-6 finish might keep the taxchiefs out of the semis.
But assuming jaywalker and taxchiefs are in, then there are 13 competitors for 5 spots:
stratorat (453) is in great position with a 1 game lead and the tiebreak to make the 00s playoffs
Death from above (452) is one game behind and loses the tiebreak to make the 00s playoffs
canauscot (451) is two back with the tiebreak undetermined to make the 00s playoffs
Superhurleyman (451) can’t make the 00s playoffs and needs a 5-1 or 6-0 finish to have a decent chance
mds6101 (450) has clinched the 00s playoffs and is very likely to make the semifinals
Our super commissioner, JuicedJC, (449) can’t make the 00s playoffs and is probably out
jmdzuiban (448) has clinched the 00s playoffs and is likely to make the semifinals
CirrhoticLiver (447) has a 1 game lead and the tiebreak to make the 00s playoffs
Studmeister (445) has a 1 game lead and likely has the tiebreak to make the 00s playoffs
3-time champ Moodywoody (443) has clinched the 00s playoffs and could make the semifinals with a good finish and a win in the first round of the 00s playoffs
der geist (443) has a 2 game lead to make the 00s playoffs and might be battling Moodywoody for the final spot in the semis
brifas (441) is very likely to make the 00s playoffs but may need a world series win to make the semis
brlcal59 (441) probably needs to sweep Studmeister tonight (Thursday) to make the 00s playoffs and have a shot at the semis.

We'll see how these teams perform when the pressure is on.

Great analysis Franky. I'm thinking the following have a long-shot chance if they win their last 6 games, a championship and a bunch of people above them lose in the first round of the 2000's playoffs:

TallEd - at 438
wilee23 - 436
naitrey - 436
daveaq31 - 434

going into the final night of the regular season:
jaywalker looks nearly certain, I'd guesstimate 99%
taxchiefs (454) are in the midst of an epic choke losing 5 straight and 10 of the last 11, but with 90 wins could still make the 00 playoffs even if they are swept tonight, depending on 1959elroy. Two wins tonight against canauscot gives them the division and a spot in the semis.
stratorat (455) is in great position with a 1 game lead and the tiebreak to make the 00s playoffs
Death from above (454) is one game behind and loses the tiebreak to make the 00s playoffs. Looks iffy.
canauscot (454) swept last night and will make the semis for sure if they win 2 tonight. 2 or more loses makes the situation complicated.
Superhurleyman (453) can’t make the 00s playoffs and needs a sweep tonight to have a decent chance
mds (452) is in the 00 playoffs and looks like a near lock to make the semis with one win tonight.
JuicedJC (451) can’t make the 00s playoffs and needs a sweep tonight and a lot of luck to make the semis.
CirrhoticLiver (449) has a 1 game lead and the tiebreak to make the 00s playoffs. May need to win the first round of the playoffs to make the semis.
Studmeister (447) has a 1 game lead and likely has the tiebreak to make the 00s playoffs. Will almost certainly need to win the first round of the playoffs to make the semis.
Moodywoody (446) swept last night and has clinched the 00s playoffs and could make the semifinals with a win in the first round of the 00s playoffs
der geist (445) has a 2 game lead to make the 00s playoffs but has slipped one behind MoodyWoody.
brifas (442) is in the 00 playoffs but will probably need a world series win to make the semis
brlcal59 (442) has a 1/64 chance just to make the 00 playoffs.

Incredible breakdowns - being a simple Florida man, I just know I need to keep scoring, had no idea where I would finish.

Was an incredible gauntlet this year - congrats to all who advance!

I'm gonna need some luck, just a little but I certainly haven't clinched. Stumbled to the finish tied for 17th with 462 points and no more points possible. There's 8 teams that can pass me and one that can tie me (I'll worry about the tiebreaker later) 6 of the teams behind me just need too win one series to catch me and 3 would need to win the 2000s championship. I'll think I'm gonna finish 22nd-25th. Never made it...finished in the 30's a couple times I believe.

dcmt - I believe you have clinched. Since liver and meister are in the same league, they both can't catch you.

below I indicate playoff wins using slashes current points/1st round win/world series win

Here is the relevant part of the rankings
20. stratorat 460/465/470 (wins tiebreak v Canauscot)
21. canauscot 460/465/470
22. mds6101 459/464/469 (wins tiebreak v jmdzubian)
23. jmdzubian 459/464/469
24. SuperHurleyMan 456/0/0 - 3.52% chance of making finals
25. Death_From_Above - 456/0/0 eliminated in 3rd tiebreak 3-4
26. CirrhoticLiver 455/460/465
27. Studmeister 453/458/463
28. MoodyWoody 452/457/462
29. der geist 451/456/461
30. brifas 449/454/459 (would play geist in WS if both advance)
31. TallEd 447/452/457 - 2% chance of making finals

CirrhoticLiver will almost certainly make the semis with a win the first round of the playoffs. Studmeister and especially MoodyWoody and geist will probably need a world series win, but there are possibilities for just a win in the first round to make the semis. Brifas and TallEd would have to win their world series and get a lot of help. On the other side of the line, current qualifiers jmdzubian and maybe mds6101 probably need a first round win to stay in the semis. canauscot is quite a bit safer but shouldn't sleep on the first round. stratorat looks pretty safely in the semis.
of course this is unofficial.

20. stratorat 460/465/470 (wins tiebreak v Canauscot)
21. canauscot 460/465/470

We are meeting in our League's 1st round playoff so that should break our tie one way or the other?

Thanks, Franky! Forgot to check for managers battling in the same league.

Franky, are you an actuary by any chance? I don’t know how you come up with these probabilities! Your qunat skills are off the charts!

not an actuary. I only know stats 101. I'm good at understanding stats in games and some real life situations but I don''t know how to do high level stats. gritch is much better at statistics than me.