Who's making the semifinals

Thanks, Franky for the great analysis. Obviously, I averted the "epic choke" to moonwalk my way into the semis. The real epic choke occurred in the 70's league where I finished 3-15 with eight 1-run losses, losing the last 5 games. I dropped out of the playoffs with a 79-83 record. I thought for sure that I wouldn't be able to overcome that collapse, and so I feel very lucky to be in the semis.

459 is now the minimum score needed to reach the semi-finals. CirrhoticLiver is up to 460 and brifas and der geist both won and meet each other in the 2000's World Series. One has to win and will have at least 459.

mds6101 must win the first round of the playoffs to make it to the semi's.

MoodyWoody must win the championship to make it.

jmdziuban2's only chance is for mds and MoodyWoody to not do the above things.

If mds wins the first round, MoodyWoody wins a championship, and der geist wins a championship - it's between CirrhoticLiver and stratorat for the last spot. I believe they are currently tied. CirrhoticLiver winning a championship would break that tie.

brifas needs a championship and either either mds to lose in the 1st round or MoodyWoody to not get a championship to get in.

Wow, some exciting playoffs! Do I have all of this correct Franky?

I think that's right except I think jmdzubian is eliminated by losing tiebreakers vs both mds and brifas (if brifas wins the upcoming world series)
Thru Game 5 of the playoffs, canauscot won round 1 and has clinched the semi-finals. judzubian, SuperHurleyman, Studmeister and TallEd have been eliminated. The upcoming world series between brifas and der geist will be critical. If Moodywoody does not win his world series, then mds and either (brifas or der geist) are in. If Moody wins his world series, then it gets complicated (I'm going to wait to see if mds wins the first round of the playoffs).

. canauscot 465/470 - won and is in semis
21. stratorat 460 lost playoffs
21. CirrhoticLiver 460/465 - won
23. mds6101 459/464/469 (wins tiebreak v jmdzubian)
23. jmdzubian 459 eliminated
25. der geist 456/461
25. SuperHurleyMan 456 eliminated
25. Death_From_Above - 456 eliminated
28. brifas 454/459 (plays geist in WS)
29. Studmeister 453 eliminated
30. MoodyWoody 452/457/462
31. TallEd 452/457 - eliminated

Unofficial - please correct me if I've missed something.

I would have thought jmdziuban is still alive. Until mds6101 wins his semi, jmd has the tie-break over mds via championship won?
If mds doesn’t complete the win, than if only CirrhoticLiver and one of dergeist or brifas goes past him, than jmd could still sneak in, no?

Yes, I believe that canauscot is correct. Either brifas or der geist will pass me, either outright or on a run differential tiebreak (cumulative +289 vs +282 in regular seasons if my math is correct). Thus my only chances are first that mds6010 does not complete the first round, AND Moodywoody does not win a championship.

Slim but not none.

If mds6101 wins his first round, then he is in as neither brifas, der geist, or Moodywoody can then catch him. I would be eliminated as either der geist or brifas will pass me.

Moodywoody needs to win a championship AND have mds6101 lose in the first round. If mds wins his first round, Moodtwoody can't catch him even with a championship, and without a championship either der geist or brifas will pass Moodywoody by winning their championship - as one of them will do.

Thus, with a first round win mds6101 is in.
Either der geist or brifas is in, if Moodywoody does not win a championship.
If Moodywoody wins a championship, then he is in.
I can only get to the semis if mds6101 loses his first round AND Moodywoody does not win a championship, then I would be in on championship tiebreaker vs mds6101, along with either brifas or der geist.
If brifas wins a championship, they then win a tiebreaker vs mds6101 on championships, also.

Recap.
1. mds6101 is in with a first round win (currently leading 3-2)
2. Moodywoody is in with a championship. It's Championship or Bust.
3. If neither 1 or 2 occurs, then I am in along with the brifas/der geist champion.
4. If only 1 or 2 occurs, but not both, then the der geist/brifas winner advances with either mds6101 or Moodywoody.


I think.
Whew.

Is stratorat still in the running?

I was wrong from the beginning of this thread, actually jmdziuban wins the tiebreak v mds (1 championship to zero). So, I think points 1-4 above are correct.

Let me try and clean up the mess I've made. Here are the current standings which don't show the eliminated teams and with canauscot moved up to around 18:

21. stratorat 460
22. CirrhoticLiver 460/465
23. jmdzubian 459
24. mds6101 459/464/469 (loses tiebreak v jmdzubian)
_________________________________________________________
25. der geist 456/461
26. brifas 454/459 (plays geist in WS)
27. MoodyWoody 452/457/462

Let me try a couple more scenarios:
5. If CirrhoticLiver, mds, geist and MoodyWoody all win, then they are in and jmdzubian and stratorat are out.
6. If CirrhoticLiver loses, and mds, geist and MoodyWoody all win, then jmdzubian and CirrhoticLiver are out.
7. If mds, brifas and MoodyWoody all win, then jmdzubian and brifas are out.
8. If mds loses they are out because geist would have more wins or brifas wins the tiebreak. Currently, mds is up 3 games to 2 in the first round of the playoffs.

this is unofficial, I've already made one mistake.

Yes, stratorat, you are still in the running. Neither I nor brifas can catch you, but mds, der geist, Cirrhotic, and Moodywoody still can. They also all would have to. Thus your simplest path in would be if brifas defeats der geist in their playoffs which would keep you above them both.

Then even if mds, cirrhotic, and Moodywoody pass you, you would still be ahead of myself (459), der geist if he loses (456), and brifas even if he wins (459).

Stratorat has the tie breaker over cirrhotic based on two finals made to cirrhotic's one.

Is stratorat still in the running?

Yes stratorat, you are still very much in the running. A >90% chance of making the semifinals.
To NOT make it, would require mds6101 to complete the win of their current semi-final (up 3-2) AND Moodywoody to come back from down 2-3 in their semifinal AND dergeist to beat brifas in their final.

Stratorat has the tie breaker over cirrhotic based on two finals made to cirrhotic's one.

Ah, but Cirrhotic has just made their second final, so Cirrhotic have the tiebreak over stratorat on run-differential. That means Cirrhotic can finish no lower than 24 and are (unofficially) in the tourney semifinals, and may move higher up with a finals win in the 00’s