Wake up and stop the cheating

Please make public the formulas you use to update player cards. They are so bizarre and unpredictable it really comes across like the fix is in for your buddies. Make it fair so we can all have the same playing field!!!

will update this post later with a shot Ty list of players with absurd cards which I have noticed and I am sure many other owners can add it in their list. Enough excuses!!!

EG 1:Reds Reece hinds can hit .240 with a .300!obs &a .350 slug and still be > 1.000 ops - yikes he is your hottest player and has not moved at all.
EG2: HESTON KJERSTAD .947 ops in >50 ab, mob top prospect, still no movement .
EG3: JORDAN WESTBURG. .319 obs is an all star and has slu Ped sleightly over last week, his one on card is .250ish ? Henderson slumping more his card has not moved
EG4: EZEQUIEL TOVAR - has a .269, .296, .441 stat line with no listed power on card at all and a .200 obs. Seriously ? &he is an expensive card!!!
Eg5: Matt Wallner - one of the most sought after sluggers at the trade deadline who in limited AB has slugged , his card is useless.

Many more to follow

I copied this to the Baseball Daily forum.

I have tried to use this league to try and figure out what cards would look like for next year and I have found the daily cards to be useless in predicting what next year's cards will look like. This game I will never play. I find it to be refuse.

I just finished my first season. After many years playing the board game in my youth. Bought two teams on a deal.After I finish my second team, I will not return. If I even decide to play it. This online game is clearly broken. Or something worse.

The programming for 365 is either faulty or fixed. I simply don't trust it. Others have told me there is a small group who control the game results to reward themselves. I believe it.

People have told me there are several ways to "fix" a team. One of them is to skew results so a good pitcher sees a majority of rolls fall on a hitters card and vice versa.

My first team in a 2016 league I drafted relief pitcher Dan Otero. He's a lights-out reliever who for much of the season had a replicated ERA more than 3x what it was in the regular season (it ended up "merely" 2.5x). I checked the splits: 441 rolls on the hitters card. 362 rolls on the pitchers card. That's a 55%/45% split. The probability of that happening after 803 rolls is a staggeringly low 0.000577. There is a one in 1,733 chance of that happening.

I invite you to check for yourself: https://www.omnicalculator.com/statisti ... robability

In the recent playoffs that my team just lost, Otero pitched in 3 games. He lost one, with an era of 5.78. During these playoffs, the splits were even worse: 4 pitchers / 13 hitters (23%/77%) . After his first appearance (which we were already losing), 13 of the last 14 rolls were on a hitters card, and 11 in a row at the end as we were being eliminated. All six of the players he faced in his final appearance the rolls fell on hitters cards. Both the pitchers who came in after him ALSO had 100% of the rolls fall on hitters cards. Of course we lost.

According to math, the probability of obtaining eleven heads in a row when flipping a coin is 0.000488, meaning it is an extraordinarily rare event that is expected to happen once in every 2,048 attempts.

There are other blatant oddities I noticed that I will keep to myself for now. But mathematics strongly suggests the results of this game are either being controlled by someone, or the game itself is inherently flawed. Either way, it cannot be trusted. It does not deserve my money. It will not get any more of mine. Whether it deserves yours or not is a personal choice. Perhaps made easier by whether you're on the "inside" or not."

Bird,

I agree with some of what you said....basically, that something is wrong

I tend to believe in faulty system rather than a fix.....

i understand the "all stars" format will result in great variances than regular MLB seasons...but I also have had overly drastic swings and results, not in accordance with normal, even skewed variances

although the computer (HAL) was on vacation for my 3 recent title wins, he's making up for it with several 9+ game losing streaks across multiple leagues (more than 2)....which, using your coin flip or math theory, all happening at the same time, is an infinitesimal chances of happening

cant even count how many 15 game injuries I've had, which first need a microscopic card result combined with a 5% chance only 1/20) on the 20 sided dice

i've also decided to not purchase any more, and just use remaining credits

it's fine to lose when other teams are simply better

it's another thing to see impossible results be "the norm"

good post, although I'm sure many (some ?) will be disagreeing

OK, I'll bite and present a dissenting opinion. There are two things:

- Things do not "even out" over time. Not in SOM, or in life in general. If your team or a specific player on your team has genuinely had some bad luck up to some point in the season, you can not expect to have good luck in the future. You can only expect "average" luck the rest of the way. Or to put it differently, from that point forward you are equally likely to experience bad luck and good luck.

- People only notice the unlikely things that actually happened. What are the odds of the same player rolling a 1-12 three times in a row in the same game? I have no idea. Surely it happens. Maybe some alert manager will notice it and start bitching and moaning that the game must be rigged or unfair because the chances of it happening are so, so small. Nobody is going to come here and post a message about how their team went through an entire season without any of their players rolling a 1-12 three consecutive times, despite ample opportunities for it to happen.

On the other hand, none of this rules out the possibility that someone at SOM global HQ is actively putting their thumb on the scales. How this would benefit SOM as a business, I don't know.

that's why I also disagree with any fix.....why jeopardize the greater whole to benefit only a select few ?

and for what, bragging rights in a (adult) kids' game ?

it's not like the rest of the world even knows SOM exists or would care

my gripe is that their is something incorrect or flawed in whatever "random" (sic) system their using....again, not suggesting it's rigged.....but there are outlier results repeatedly that go far past "all star team format" and normal bell curve distribution which defy explanation or common sense...one time ? certainly....a couple/few times ?....most likely

but 68 games across all 5 currently active different teams, all of which are easily arguably in the top half talent wise in those leagues ?

my wins-my losses last recent stretch of games

2-9 11
8-19 27
3-7 10
3-14 17
1-2 c 3
17-51 68

250% winning pct, across almost half a season of cumulative baseball ?.....only TWO teams in MLB baseball history comprising almost years finished with a lower season %, the '16 Athletics, and '35 Braves

Ollie

totally disagree with your comment about luck "not evening out"

this game isn't about luck....it's about statistics....no "luck" is inserted into cards...even clutch hitting is based on statistical data

CLT (central limit theorem - bell curve) states:

The central limit theorem (CLT) states that the distribution of sample means approximates a normal distribution as the sample size gets larger, regardless of the population's distribution.
Sample sizes equal to or greater than 30 are often considered sufficient for the CLT to hold.
A key aspect of CLT is that the average of the sample means and standard deviations will equal the population mean and standard deviation.
A sufficiently large sample size can predict the characteristics of a population more accurately.


1/2 a season as you stated is more than enough sample size (2.5 times theory minimum threshold and 3+ times the minimum sample data required for other theorem "25")

if a team loses 10 games in a row, that is an outlier to whatever extent (a better team on paper losing that streak would be a father away from mean outlier, for example)

and plotted on a bell curve distribution, with (more than) sufficient sample size, there would be an equal amount of results on the other side of the curve

while real life baseball may have luck involved ('baseball is a game of inches', Bobby Richardson just barely snagging McCovey's liner to seal '62 WS), even those instances would theoretically even out over sufficient sample sizes

Boston is a great example....the "curse" which fans endured for ever so long, was eventually balanced with 4 WS rings in 15 years....a result, even a die hard Yankee fan (or other successful franchise) would take in a heartbeat

it might be hard to explain luck, but, unless you have some facts that support the theory you noted, I find it impossible to agree with, but will allow the possibility I am incorrect and would welcome your factually supported reasoning

great discussion for its own post, Im sure there would be a variety of opinions throughout the community

Speaking for myself, I always remember the bad luck that happens to my teams. I can honestly say that if I looked back at some of my winning teams I would see some extraordinary occurences happen that helped me to win. But, I guess I smiled and moved on. Human nature to remember and complain about the bad luck?

I just finished my first season. After many years playing the board game in my youth. Bought two teams on a deal.After I finish my second team, I will not return. If I even decide to play it. This online game is clearly broken. Or something worse.

The programming for 365 is either faulty or fixed. I simply don't trust it. Others have told me there is a small group who control the game results to reward themselves. I believe it.

People have told me there are several ways to "fix" a team. One of them is to skew results so a good pitcher sees a majority of rolls fall on a hitters card and vice versa.

My first team in a 2016 league I drafted relief pitcher Dan Otero. He's a lights-out reliever who for much of the season had a replicated ERA more than 3x what it was in the regular season (it ended up "merely" 2.5x). I checked the splits: 441 rolls on the hitters card. 362 rolls on the pitchers card. That's a 55%/45% split. The probability of that happening after 803 rolls is a staggeringly low 0.000577. There is a one in 1,733 chance of that happening.

I invite you to check for yourself: https://www.omnicalculator.com/statisti ... robability

In the recent playoffs that my team just lost, Otero pitched in 3 games. He lost one, with an era of 5.78. During these playoffs, the splits were even worse: 4 pitchers / 13 hitters (23%/77%) . After his first appearance (which we were already losing), 13 of the last 14 rolls were on a hitters card, and 11 in a row at the end as we were being eliminated. All six of the players he faced in his final appearance the rolls fell on hitters cards. Both the pitchers who came in after him ALSO had 100% of the rolls fall on hitters cards. Of course we lost.

According to math, the probability of obtaining eleven heads in a row when flipping a coin is 0.000488, meaning it is an extraordinarily rare event that is expected to happen once in every 2,048 attempts.

There are other blatant oddities I noticed that I will keep to myself for now. But mathematics strongly suggests the results of this game are either being controlled by someone, or the game itself is inherently flawed. Either way, it cannot be trusted. It does not deserve my money. It will not get any more of mine. Whether it deserves yours or not is a personal choice. Perhaps made easier by whether you're on the "inside" or not."

Most of your theory is incorrect. First, the chances of having at least 441 rolls on the hitters card out of 803 is 1 in 340, not 1 in 1,733. The 1 in 1,733 would be if you wanted to try and get exactly and only 441 hitter rolls.

Second, strat cards are made to face the players that played during the season of the card, with other cards from that same season. Most likely you are playing with superstar cards in the league. Instead of facing a bad hitter in the 7, 8, and 9 holes, you are probably facing all-stars.

Nobody is controlling anything. If you are not winning and or consistently bad, it's because you are not drafting well, or putting the best team on the field. Very easy to blame everything else except what is actually happening. I see it every day in the casino world.