NLD 66 - Popeye Eats His Spinach

Had been going through our first slump of the season, and fortunately the schedule brought to town Joe's Rebels, formerly the Peanut Farmers (that's a tough manual job, I can understand why the name change.) So let's hope those 3 wins will provide some catharsis, and relieve some pent-up emotions that had begun to fester.

Sweeping us isn't very hard.

I still find it hard to believe we're this bad. But, there are anamolies all over the place with this team starting with a team ERA of 4.75 which is less hard to believe than being second to last in scoring despite actually spending money on hitting. Pretty sure we lead the league in LOB (although Stoney has had A LOT of runners) and I know we have the lowest runs scored per baserunner.

It's just one of those teams that can't get a break I guess. $100 mil leagues you need to get lucky because every team is so good. We're not that.

You get another chance for a sweep tonight Jeepie. This time in your place. Not optimistic.

I feel I'm getting out of my slump. Meanwhile Stoney's squad has been playing very well, trying to slip under the radar. And Dale, him to.

Well, we have been in slump all season except for brief glimpses of actual competence.

Had to make a move after losing Will Smith for 15 (14 left to play). I mean it won't make a difference, but just in case, we can't throw any games away.

Who knows, maybe Naylor will get hot for us and lead us on an incredible win streak!

Looking at the West compared to the other divisions. What does that + mean on run diff?
Is that something we need to be concerned about? Or maybe not!?

Looking at the West compared to the other divisions. What does that + mean on run diff?
Is that something we need to be concerned about? Or maybe not!?

LOL, clearly my team hasn't paid attention to it all season!

Same ol same ol for us, Naylor went 1-8 (albeit with a HR and 2 BB) and Stalling was 0-2. Only one series so we'll see.

The ERAs on my team are f'ing ridiculous.

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Woodruff, B.   3.42
Kirby, G.   4.98
Civale, A.   4.78
Walker, T.   5.13
Williamson, B.   5.04
Moreta, D.   3.93
Cosgrove, T.   4.78
Lopez, R.   4.64
Suter, B.   6.32
Baumann, M.   5.21
Brazoban, H.   7.82


NONE of these make any sense at all for a team that has above average fieidling. Oh, and we lead the league by a wide margin in unearned runs too.

Real life ERAs

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Name   ERA
Woodruff, B.   2.28
Kirby, G.   3.35
Civale, A.   3.47
Walker, T.   4.37
Williamson, B.   4.46
Moreta, D.   3.72
Cosgrove, T.   1.77
Lopez, R.   3.27
Suter, B.   3.39
Baumann, M.   3.74
Brazoban, H.   4.12


Crazy bad luck on this team.

Ratings

These are as off for a couple of teams as I have ever seen. Even in $100 mil league.

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Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
Jeep...   8870   5170   829   6000   2935   C
JoeTJet   8099   4803   421   5224   2933   W
Stoney.   8146   5036   218   5255   2927   E
Millerm   8358   4698   834   5532   2898   C
Spider.   8087   4896   436   5332   2799   E
Randal.   7818   4761   386   5147   2722   W
KLX....   7924   4612   634   5247   2703   W
BigAlrc   7541   4727   198   4925   2649   W
Gilbo...   8209   5208   457   5664   2625   E
stevep.   8229   5090   580   5670   2599   C
SemperG   7868   4628   740   5369   2545   C
Dale...   7818   5353   318   5672   2194   E


Ratings put Jeep, JTJ, Stoney and Miller about the same so they would expect the divisions to look like this:
East - SToney and Spider to battle it out, Dale waaay behind and Gilbo an also-ran
Central - Jeep and miller battliing it out with the other two distant.
West - JTJ is the class of the division with the other three with an outside chance.

As we know, these ratings are laughable. Let's see why

Overall
JTJ and Miller are super underperforming, as bad as I've seen it. Spider is a "normal" underperform and Dale is way over.

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Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
Jeep...   2935   3   1   2   C
JoeTJet   2933   3   12   -9   W
Stoney.   2927   3   3   0   E
Millerm   2898   3   11   -8   C
Spider.   2799   4   9   -5   E
Randal.   2722   5   5   0   W
KLX....   2703   5   7   -2   W
BigAlrc   2649   6   5   1   W
Gilbo...   2625   6   6   0   E
stevep.   2599   6   8   -2   C
SemperG   2545   7   8   -1   C
Dale...   2194   10   5   5   E


Offense
Miller is way under, JTJ pretty much under. Dale and Randal quite a bit over.

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Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif   
Jeep...   8870   1   2   -1   C
Millerm   8358   4   8   -4   C
stevep.   8229   5   7   -2   C
Gilbo...   8209   5   7   -2   E
Stoney.   8146   6   4   2   E
JoeTJet   8099   7   10   -3   W
Spider.   8087   7   8   -1   E
KLX....   7924   9   9   0   W
SemperG   7868   10   9   1   C
Dale...   7818   11   7   4   E
Randal.   7818   11   7   4   W
BigAlrc   7541   12   12   0   W


Pitching/Fielding
Once again JTJ, projected to be one of the top 3-4 is next to last, to a team that didn't even try to have ptching or defense. Randal is similarly low with Gilbo and Dlae much over. Stones and Spidey a little low and Jeep a little high.

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Team PF   P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif
BigAlrc   4925   1   1   0
Randal.   5147   3   8   -5
JoeTJet   5224   4   10   -6
KLX....   5247   4   5   -1
Stoney.   5255   4   7   -3
Spider.   5332   5   8   -3
SemperG   5369   5   4   1
Millerm   5532   7   6   1
Gilbo...   5664   9   4   5
stevep.   5670   9   7   2
Dale...   5672   9   4   5
Jeep...   6000   12   9   3


We'll look at luck factors when I get a chance, I expect to see that Miller and JTJ have been crushed in them.

Nice to know my team doesn't look as bad as they perform - or do I have that reversed?

I actually thought I had a decent team this season - but it's daily agony to look at the results. I don't even think luck factors are likely to explain this team's descent to the bottom.

Luck Factors

Big A and Jeep lead the pack. Big A with die rolls by a big marting, one run and singles. The only downside is his plethora of injuries. Jeep is also rolling his cards and winning one runners. Dale has been lucky with the bphrs

Not surprisingly, on the flip side there is JTJ and Miller. For JTJ all bp numbers are bad, he's not rolling on his cards and has an 87% error to unearned run ratio. Miller's problem is with one runners, and Pythag. It's surprising, a little, to see that Semper is high in bad luck, VERY unlucky on bphrs and also unlucky with one run games.

Spider has one of the biggest differences in record to wins and it appears that bp rolls are hurting him,but that's somewhat balanced by errors not causing many unearned runs.

Everyone else is pretty close.

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Mgr .. .   SI   HR   1-R   Pyt   Rolls   UE/E   Inj   Luck Fctr
BigA...   +9%   +2%   +8   +6   +1.7%   67%   +69   4.5
Jeep...   +1%   -2%   +12   +5   +1.4%   66%   +23   3.5
dale...   +2%   +10%   +2   0    -0.1%   68%   -10   2
stevep.   -13%   +20%   -10   -4   +0.8%   53%   +28   0.5
Stoney.   +1%   -6%   +3   +1   -0.1%   76%   +8   0
Randal.   +5%   -3%   +5   -4   +0.4%   87%   -20   -0.5
KLX....   +5%   +7%   +3   +2   -1.8%   43%   -41   -0.5
Spider.   -6%   -10%   -4   -1   +0.2%   51%   +17   -0.5
Gilbo   -3%   -11%   -3   -1   +0.0%   63%   -11   -1
Millerm   +4%   +1%   -14   -8   -0.7%   67%   +29   -2.5
Semper.   +4%   -15%   -6   -4   -0.9%   52%   -1   -3
JTJ....   -7%   -9%   +4   +1   -0.9%   87%   +11   -3.5