Are Division Assignments TRULY Random?

There is a certain very high winning % player and I have started to feel like every time I'm in a league with him, we are in the same division.

After it happened again yesterday, I did some research on it going through my last 50 or so teams.

The simple odds of a particular manager being in the same division that you are is 3 in 11 (27.3%).

Yet this particular player (who is among the very best in the game) has been in the same division as me in 9 of the last 13 leagues we have played in together. Including 3 straight leagues TWICE.

9 in 13 is 69.2% which is OVER 2 1/2 times the expected number.

On occasion, I have been left to wonder if HAL somehow tinkers with the divisional assignments based upon a player's winning %, putting stronger managers (my winning % is .539, the player I referenced is north of .550%) in the same division to beat each other up, thereby making it easier for less experienced players to make the playoffs.

Is it just a coincidence? Or is there something to it? And has anyone else noticed anything similar to this?

This is equivalent to a .273 hitter having a 9 for 13 stretch. If you really think something is amiss, it's certainly possible to do an analysis of winning pct vs division assignment over several hundred randomly selected leagues.

As an aside, I actually prefer having better managers in my division. They generally have a clear strategy that makes it easier for me to mitigate the advantages they are exploiting. Harder road to the playoffs, but a better chance at a ring if you get there.

This is equivalent to a .273 hitter having a 9 for 13 stretch. If you really think something is amiss, it's certainly possible to do an analysis of winning pct vs division assignment over several hundred randomly selected leagues.

As an aside, I actually prefer having better managers in my division. They generally have a clear strategy that makes it easier for me to mitigate the advantages they are exploiting. Harder road to the playoffs, but a better chance at a ring if you get there.

Well, not really when you consider the norm for that .273 hitter is somewhere between .200 - .330 or so.

The odds of being in the same division with this manager in 3 consecutive leagues is 3 in 11 X 3 in 11 X 3 in 11 which equals a 27 in 1331 chance or a 1 in 49 chance and I did that twice in a 13 team stretch.

I don't mind and am not afraid of competition, but this just seems to be defying the odds so I wanted to see if anyone else had noticed something similar.

I agree wholeheartedly. I usually see HAL set up divisions either by ballparks or by owner winning Pct. You will often see similar parks together in a division if there is some repetition in your league. I usually see newbie managers grouped in the same division while the other divisions have one or two winning mgr.s

Eddie, do you have data?

I was speaking with anothe player a few weeks ago about this. We both noticed it.

No data. Just my memory from looking at the divisions when they are created. Let me see if I can just review the past few leagues that I have been in without having to dig too deep.

I believe this is the type of thing that you notice when it happens, but pay no mind to all the times that it doesn't.

Sometimes you get what seems like a favorable draw for your division and sometimes you don't. After 800 teams, I haven't seen enough evidence to support another conspiracy theory.

nothing is random in Strat.

my 2023 barnstormer i had some pretty tough draws. was not really happy at the time but to catch the people ahead of you it's easier to beat them yourself. last 22 barnstormer where i had a chance to get in top 8 for bye to finals try being in a division where other 3 teams are cristiano at 558 win %. rocket 05 541% and n barella 540% . all 4 of us were in the top 25 in the standings, i was in top 8 all year till this last draw.