NLD 67 - I Go, You Go, Lu go???

That’s what you get for taunting HAL with your injury comments! Lol

Ugh, maybe, but I didn't say anything about my team!

I score (1) run in three games......hitting coach is now unemployed....

Ratings

There are a lot of anomalies this time around in terms of the overall ratings and the luck factors. Some things I havent' seen much, if ever.

The ratings would say the following:
E- Semper #1 with other three possible WC
C - JTJ the clear favorite with Spider a WC candidate and a dark horse to take the division. Glibo and KLX out of it.
W - Jeep and Stoney battling for #1, the other two, not a factor.

Clearly this hasn't panned out so far.

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Team...   O...   P...   F..   P+F.   Ovrl   Div
JoeTJet   8092   5303   623   5925   2245   C
SemperG   8011   5231   635   5866   2225   E
Jeep...   7986   5230   622   5853   2195   W
Stoney.   7969   5382   590   5972   2043   W
Spider.   7680   5236   462   5698   2010   C
Millerm   7679   5394   371   5765   1956   E
BigAlrc   7186   5051   270   5321   1909   E
MEAT...   7863   5386   714   6100   1846   E
Randal.   7809   5287   728   6015   1837   W
Gilbo...   7495   5327   405   5732   1824   C
Dale...   7467   5205   735   5940   1558   W
KLX....   8523   6336   780   7116   1451   C


Overall

JTJ way under, KLX a record setting 10 over. I dont' think the ratings have ever had the best record with the worst rating and the best rating with near the bottom record. Randal is high and Semper is low.

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Team Ov   Ovrl   Rtg   Rec   Dif   
JoeTJet   2245   2   7   -5   C
SemperG   2225   2   5   -3   E
Jeep...   2195   2   2   0   W
Stoney.   2043   4   5   -1   W
Spider.   2010   4   6   -2   C
Millerm   1956   5   2   3   E
BigAlrc   1909   6   7   -1   E
MEAT...   1846   7   9   -2   E
Randal.   1837   7   3   4   W
Gilbo...   1824   7   6   1   C
Dale...   1558   10   7   3   W
KLX....   1451   12   2   10   C


Offense

Remarkably close. JTJ is the only team that is 2 off .

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Team Of   O   Rtg   Run   Dif   
KLX....   8523   2   2   0   C
JoeTJet   8092   5   7   -2   C
SemperG   8011   6   7   -1   E
Jeep...   7986   6   6   0   W
Stoney.   7969   6   7   -1   W
MEAT...   7863   7   8   -1   E
Randal.   7809   7   8   -1   W
Spider.   7680   8   9   -1   C
Millerm   7679   8   8   0   E
Gilbo...   7495   9   8   1   C
Dale...   7467   9   8   1   W
BigAlrc   7186   11   11   0   E


Pitching and Fielding
Also really close. A few teams a little off, but not all that much.

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    P+F   Rtg   Run   Dif   
BigAlrc   5321   1   2   -1   E
Spider.   5698   4   4   0   C
Gilbo...   5732   4   5   -1   C
Millerm   5765   4   3   1   E
Jeep...   5853   5   4   1   W
SemperG   5866   5   7   -2   E
JoeTJet   5925   6   6   0   C
Dale...   5940   6   7   -1   W
Stoney.   5972   7   5   2   W
Randal.   6015   7   5   2   W
MEAT...   6100   8   7   1   E
KLX....   7116   12   10   2   C


Fielding
The biggest difference I've seen in a while. JTJ is WAY off and Stones and Randal are more than the norm off. Normally they are so close I don't award luck factors, I will this time.

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Fieldng   FRt   Rtg   F%   Dif   
BigAlrc   270   2   1   1   E
Millerm   371   4   6   -2   E
Gilbo...   405   4   3   1   C
Spider.   462   5   6   -1   C
Stoney.   590   7   4   3   W
Jeep...   622   7   5   2   W
JoeTJet   623   7   11   -4   C
SemperG   635   7   8   -1   E
MEAT...   714   8   10   -2   E
Randal.   728   8   5   3   W
Dale...   735   8   8   0   W
KLX....   780   9   11   -2   C


Luck Factors

Not surprising according to the ratings, KLX has one of the highest luck factors we've seen. He's double the STD dev in both singles and HRs, +11 in one runners, twice the Std dev in pythag. Just crazy high. Milleram is a "normal" luck with very high bpsi and very high hit/pit rolls.

On the negative side, also not a surprise, JTJ is very low with low singles and double the low in bphrs. Also low in 1 run and pythag. Also, waaay off on fielding rating. In a more normal amount of bad luck, Big A is low on bprhs and one runs and pythag. Spider, also, -2.5 on singles, 1 runners with more injuries than expected.

Some other things to note: Randale is way off on rolls as he has pointed out and also bprhs, but he's mitigated it a bit in one run and pythag to not be *totally* unlucky, just a little unlucky.

Meat has an amazing 95% ratio of errors to unearned runs: 56 Errors and 53 unearned runs. This is very high historically.

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Mgr .. .   SI   HR   1-R   Pyt   Rolls   UE/E   Inj   Luck Fctr
KLX....   +9%   +16%   +11   +7   +0.0%   54%   +5   6
Millerm   +12%   +4%   +2   +2   +2.7%   47%   +1   3
Jeep...   +2%   +10%   +1   -1   -0.6%   49%   +16   1
Stoney.   +4%   -3%   -6   -4   +1.1%   40%   -21   0.5
Semper.   -12%   -2%   +5   +2   +0.1%   53%   +11   0
Randal.   -1%   -10%   +5   +5   -2.3%   46%   +29   -1
Gilbo   +0%   +2%   -8   -4   +0.8%   46%   +10   -1.5
Meat....   -0%   -5%   +3   0    -1.1%   95%   -6   -1.5
dale...   -1%   -16%   +2   +1   -0.3%   69%   -13   -2
BigA...   +4%   -11%   -6   -5   +0.1%   55%   -24   -2.5
Spider.   -8%   +6%   -5   -1   +0.3%   48%   +25   -2.5
JTJ....   -5%   -17%   -4   -4   -0.7%   56%   +2   -5


As Lefty Gomez first said "It's better to be lucky than good!"

As Lefty Gomez first said "It's better to be lucky than good!"

Words I live by for sure......

I still do not understand the overall rating.

It is not O-(P+F) though it is mostly proportional all the way down the list. Why the difference?? are you throwing ballparks in after the fact?? or team speed?? Or whatever.

For instance, JTJ 8092-5925= 2167 instead of 2245, Miller 7679-5765= 1914 instead of 1956 and KLX 8523-7116= 1407 instead of 1451--Why does JTJ gain 78 rating points, Myself 42 for instance and KLX 44???

Hey Milleram,

The fielding that I display is with pitchers, BUT since the fielding for pitchers is part of their rating, I don't use it to do that math for the rating because it would be double counting.

Does that make sense? I guess I could also display each team's fielding without pitching if that would be useful.

I kind of see how that makes some sense.

For curiosities sake, I took a quick survey of the Starting pitchers fielding for the same three teams---which is two thirds of the fielding chances I estimate (my SP have 68% of my innings so far)

For the 5 SP on each team.

KLX averages a 2.3 fielding rating with an e7.6
Miller............ 2.4 fielding rating with an e6.8
JTJ.............. 3.0 fielding rating with an e15.0

With the caveat the I didn't look at RP fielding at all and pitchers are only 2 of 30 Chances anyway, so it means nothing--just an observation. Personally, I think high WP and Balk ratings are worse than fielding for pitchers and my team sucks at that.

I know you and I are playing 2s at 2B and SS where KLX is playing 3s, but both you and I have 92 DP on GB and KLX has 100 on GB (114 games in). Of course, KLX gives up a lot more baserunners, so it makes sense he turns more DP--he scores a lot more runs too in that park. KLX and JTJ are almost dead equal on X-outs vs X-chances too

Luck has to be a larger factor than most would think--especially in a serpentine draft league...Unless you pick a bad park for the league--then you are usually doomed.

I kind of see how that makes some sense.

For curiosities sake, I took a quick survey of the Starting pitchers fielding for the same three teams---which is two thirds of the fielding chances I estimate (my SP have 68% of my innings so far)

For the 5 SP on each team.

KLX averages a 2.3 fielding rating with an e7.6
Miller............ 2.4 fielding rating with an e6.8
JTJ.............. 3.0 fielding rating with an e15.0

With the caveat the I didn't look at RP fielding at all and pitchers are only 2 of 30 Chances anyway, so it means nothing--just an observation. Personally, I think high WP and Balk ratings are worse than fielding for pitchers and my team sucks at that.

I know you and I are playing 2s at 2B and SS where KLX is playing 3s, but both you and I have 92 DP on GB and KLX has 100 on GB (114 games in). Of course, KLX gives up a lot more baserunners, so it makes sense he turns more DP--he scores a lot more runs too in that park. KLX and JTJ are almost dead equal on X-outs vs X-chances too

Luck has to be a larger factor than most would think--especially in a serpentine draft league...Unless you pick a bad park for the league--then you are usually doomed.

Hard to know why KLX turns more DP, but the XChart info like you point out is bad luck because his D is TERRIBLE.

Luck? Yeah, we've been super unlucky.
- 7 of our last 9 losses have been by 3 runs or less including 3 more one runners (we're 15-21 and 1-8 in extras)
- We've won 3 over that time span by a collective 29-10 run diff. I guess one of those *was* by one run so there's that.
- Our pythag puts us at .500, but we're 13 under.
- You point out our Xchart luck (all bad)
- Still haven't made up any ground on the bphrs. Went 0-3 in 1-8 bphrs last night and lost a game because he got a 1-5 2 run shot. If we were hitting them at the same rate as our opponents we'd have 13 more HRs. How many more wins would that be? Quite a few if you ask me.
- We have three pitchers who's ERA are over 6 and are priced at 3.18 or more including Mldozinski who is actually pretty good.
- NOt sure we have a single pitcher that's over performed. Strider and Shaw have been at least close. Oh, maybe Detmers is better than expected, but across the board the pitching has been awful. Of course, part of that is the terrible xchart luck.
- We've lost two RPs to injuries, Diekman for 15 and Brozoban for 8. At least the latter isn't a key part of the pen.
- Offensively, if we had normal luck on bphrs we'd probably be in good shape, but...

It is what it is, it's a dice game.