How Much Emphasis Do You Put On Defense?

Out of mild curiosity, I checked two recently completed leagues I was in. I added up the total number of injuries to all "non-green injury rated" players for all 12 teams. In one league there were 4 15-game injuries out of 113 possibilities. In the second league there were 3 15-game injuries out of 89 possibilities. Two examples are not statistically significant, but I really do not believe that SOM programs 15-game injuries to occur more than 5% of the time.

What I did learn, as Max said, a fair number of managers really are risk averse in the players they select.

And NONE moreso than Eric O.

A long time ago, Diamond Dope used to post actual results of players who finished seasons at different salary caps. Back then I did a little study of superstar players at 100M--superstars, so the results wouldn't be affected by the players being benched or platooned. I checked out how many PAs seven players at different injury levels achieved in an average season.
7 bulletproof superstars (0 and 1)--no injury or 680+ PA) produced an average of 732 PA per season.
7 superstars with 600+ PA (3 game injury risk) produced an average of 697 PA per season, which is 35 PA less than the bulletproof players.
7 superstars with less than 600 PA (15 game injury risk) produced an average of 660 PA per season, which is 37 PA less than the 3 game inj players.

On average, the 3 game injury risk players have about 5% fewer PA than the bulletproof players. The 15 game inj risk players have 5% fewer PA than the 3 game inj players. The 15 game injury risk players have 10% fewer PA than the bulletproof players. On the other hand, they do averge 660 PA per season, which puts them over the bar of 600 PAs that establishes their level.
So the question for an individual manager might be: can you deal with this average level of risk and with the fact that a black 1 player MIGHT be injured for 15 games?

BTW, if anyone wants to see the actual numbers, here they are:

Plate Appearances for Bulletproof Players (either no injury on card or 680 PA). A selection of seven superstar players averaged 732 plate appearances over multiple seasons, according to Diamond Dope Actuals.

Ruth (21) 744
Hornsby (22) 742
Hornsby (29) 741
Musial (48) 731
Mays (62) 726
Foxx (32) 724
Gehrig (27) 718
7 Player Avg. 732

Plate Appearances for 600 PA+ Players: inj rating 1 (max 3 games injury): These superstar players averaged 697 plate appearances, or about 5% fewer than the bulletproof players

Mantle (61) 707
Ruth (27) 707
Mantle (56) 706
Bonds (93) 693
Charleston(Nel) 693
Bonds (01) 691
Kiner (49) 680
7 Player Avg. 697

On average, 600 PA+ players lose about 35 PA to Bulletproof players. That's .4.8% (or let's say, 5%) injury cost between durable and Bulletproof. 3 game injury risk players average .95% as many plate appearances as bulletproof players. Put another way, they lose about 5% relative to bulletproof players.


Plate Appearances for 1 inj, 15 game Risk Players: 1 inj with less than 600 real-life Plate Appearances. These superstars averaged 660 PA, or about 5% less than 600+ PA players, and 10% less than bulletproof players.

Brett (80) 676
Gibson (Nel) 673
Beckwith (Nel) 666
Mauer (09) 662
Bagwell (94) 658
Dimaggio (39) 652
Griffey, Jr (94) 633
7 Player Avg 660

On average, 1 inj, 15 game risk players (less than 600 PA) lose about 37 PA to 1 inj (600 PA) players, or .053 (again, let's say 5%). 15-game injury risk players average 90% as many PA as bulletproof players. Put another way, they lose about 10% relative to bulletproof players.

For whatever reason, maybe it's selective memory, but every time I use a high $$$ 15 game injury risk, they get injured for 15 games at least twice every season. Which reduces their "value" by roughly 20%.

Nap Lajoie is the biggest offender, hand over my heart, every single time I use him, he gets injured for 15 games in the first week of the season.

Now, the other thing to consider is the playoffs. If you happen to get one of those 15 gamers to your Black 1 player right before or during the playoffs, they are done for the season. Which can kill your chances of advancing in the playoffs.

Below is the Super-Advanced Injury Chart, with splits from 1 to 20. Players with 600+ PA (italic green 1) can be injured for no more than 3 games. Splits of 14 or above result in a 3 game inj only.
Players with a bold green 0 cannot be injured at all. Players with a bold green 1 can only be injured for the remainder of the game. So the chart as a whole applies to the standard black 1s (599 PA or less)
It's worth noting that a player rated standard 1 will only be injured for more than 5 games 1/4 of the time, and will be injured for 2 or fewer games more than half the time. A 15 game injury only happens 1 time in 20. So, in my mind, a 1 rated hitter is not facing a radical risk. Most 1 injury regulars post 600+ PA, and some approach or exceed 700 in a given season. I just looked at the regular 1s on a randomly chosen 100M team of mine. Schmidt played in 159 games (680 PA). Arky 159 games (754 PA). Dihigo 145 games (632 PA). W Brown 157 games (654 PA). These results are not untypical. (BTW PA here is AB + BB). For me, if I like a player, I'm willing to take the risk of a 1 inj.
But people's risk tolerance varies. Keep in mind that injury risk is figured into player cost.
https://www.dougburgett.net/strat/injury.html

Super-Advanced Injury Chart
Ok = Player not injured. REM = Player injured for the remainder of this game. * = If the total of this players at-bats plus walks is greater than 599 ignore the result next to the * and consider this player to be injured for 3 games.

Split Injury
1 OK
2 OK
3 REM
4 REM
5 1
6 1
7 1
8 1
9 2
10 2
11 2
12 3
13 3
14 4*
15 5*
16 6*
17 7*
18 8*
19 10*
20 15*

Since rolls 1-4 don't go beyond the current game, there is a 1 in 16 chance of any injury to a Black 1 player (or worse) of being a 15 game injury. If a roll of 1-4 occurs, it doesn't show up on the Full Season Injury Chart, so it must be ignored.

I'm gonna look at some of my completed teams to see how that lines up.

Looked at several completed leagues of mine and what I found is that over the balance of the league, it is happening right around the 1 in 16 chance it should be happening.

The outlier is that not all teams experience a 15 gamer, typically less than half the league gets hit with one, but the teams that get hit with one are statistically above the norm, so maybe that's what we (me) notice, that when it does happen it seems like it happens more than it should.

Based on that, I retract my statement that it seems like it happens too much. It does appear to be pretty much spot on over the course of the entire league, you just gotta hope you're not the team that gets "dinged".

Getting back to defense, I agree with Toady, defense is important but balance is more important, and building a team to compete in your division probably more important still.

Example: I won a ring recently in Mile High with a catching platoon of Tamargo, Ferguson and Zunino. There was a speed team in that division so when I played that team I put Zunino in the lineup to slow them down. The other teams in my division didn't run much so I was ok with the 4(+2) defense of Tamargo and Ferguson.

With this great game based on dice roll results,,,and the way SOM accurately creates the cards,,,,defense needs to be paid attention too....As when looking at a hitters cards, you know the chances for all the results, and with the probability of the dice rolls over the season to be expected, the results will be close to real life.......Then, also since the defensive chances (Xs on the pitcher's cards) are the same number on every pitcher for every fielding position.....You can get a pretty good idea how many hits-errors a player will give up in the field by NOT making the play......So a way to get a players overall worth is to subtract the number of bases allowed by not making a play in the field from the number of bases a player will get when he is at bat.

I will go to my grave saying defense is underrated. Yes you pay for it in the price of the player, but, a good defensive team allows you to spend less on your pitching. So you can afford better offensive players who happen to be solid defensively.

And when it comes to defense, everything matters: Range is king, errors less important. OF Arms are big too. Never overlook the little things.

I will go to my grave saying defense is underrated. Yes you pay for it in the price of the player, but, a good defensive team allows you to spend less on your pitching. So you can afford better offensive players who happen to be solid defensively.

And when it comes to defense, everything matters: Range is king, errors less important. OF Arms are big too. Never overlook the little things.

Coincidentally, I took some of the feedback that I got from this discussion (which has been great, by the way. Thanks everyone for weighing in) and started a new team that ended up in your division. It looks like our teams are polar opposites in pretty much every way possible, so it'll be interesting to see how it comes out in the wash.