2012 card predictions

For something to discuss besides the problems we are all too well aware of how about this....

What seasons now in progress in MLB are you most looking forward to seeing the card for come next spring?

For me ...

looking forward to seeing the Gentry card. It will have 15 game injury risk but with a nice OBP should make a reasonably priced leadoff option.

Moreland will be a little more injury prone but for those willing to take the risk could be a budget sleeper card.

Darvish will be very risky to use in 12 team leagues. Too many walks and with compression of talent where every team has multiple HR threats those walks will become runs. Plus Strat cards are not as good at pitching around trouble as Yu has been most of season.

How about the closer troika of Kimbrel, Chapman, and Rodney? I can't remember the last time three closers have been so dominant in one season. Of course, there's still a month to go....

Also, it's a real battle for the #1 starter card among Cueto (suffers from being in the NL), Felix (suffers from pitching in Safeco), Sale (lefties have to be really good in 12-team leagues), and Verlander (suffers from his last outing).

There are lots of potentially interesting cards.

C - how many of the top 10 C cards will have more than 150 (AB+BB)?

CF - Who's the top rated CF - Cutch, Kemp, or Trout? (Sorry Bryce, maybe next year.)

1B - How bad will Votto's injury situation be?

P - how many of the low IP cards with great numbers (Paulino, Sheets, Anderson, Fife, Skaggs, Pryor, Andrew Bailey) get Unleashed cards?

Well if the season ended today there would be 5 very interesting Red Sox cards: Andrew Miller, Scott Atchison, Scott Podsednik, Mauro Gomez and Pedro Ciriaco.

A lot will depend on how these hitters finish the year and what kind of defensive rating they will get.

Trout will seemingly be the highest-priced card. All the UZR and fielding bible metrics suggest he'll be a 1 in center...along with his 1.000 OPS and baserunning.

What if Billy Hamilton comes up for the Reds and gets a handful of plate appearances and more stolen bases to go with the 150 from AA? What kind of a steal rating will he have on an unleashed card? Even if it's not this year, what about next year? Maybe AAA? *2-6, 12 (19-16) ? He's a beast on the bases. It'll be interesting to see.

How about the closer troika of Kimbrel, Chapman, and Rodney?

Load up on all 3 of just go after 1. Sometimes in 200x games I think you can have too many great closers. When there are enough just about everyone can have a top closer advantage of grabbing one is lessened. If they do not falter though these 3 could be just enough better than next tier of closers having one of them could be an advantage.

The Chapman card will be the most interesting to see. His K rate is so high I am wondering if the Strat model of 50/50 is capable of reproducing that.

Trout has 507 PAs at the moment. Will he be able to get the 600 needed to dodge the 15 game injury risk?

Trout has 507 PAs at the moment. Will he be able to get the 600 needed to dodge the 15 game injury risk?

Barring injury, he'll exceed it comfortably. He'll most likely average more than 4.5 PAs per game and they've got 29 left. A conservative 4.5*29 estimate is 130.5 (37.5 beyond what he needs).

How about the closer troika of Kimbrel, Chapman, and Rodney?

Load up on all 3 of just go after 1. Sometimes in 200x games I think you can have too many great closers. When there are enough just about everyone can have a top closer advantage of grabbing one is lessened. If they do not falter though these 3 could be just enough better than next tier of closers having one of them could be an advantage.

The Chapman card will be the most interesting to see. His K rate is so high I am wondering if the Strat model of 50/50 is capable of reproducing that.

It is reproducible, but it will be amazing:

NL strikeout rate: .201
Chapman strikeout rate: .465
Chapman Strat card strikeout rate: .729
Strikeout chances on Chapman card: .729*108 = 79

In other words, if his season ended today, his card would have strikeout rolls on all columns' 5-9's, plus an additional 2,10,11,12 in one column (for example).