Looking Ahead: Strasburg

There appear to be no "keeper" leagues in Strat Online. Fair enough. But I'm looking ahead to the 2012 cards. I've been watching the Washington Nationals a lot, and am wondering what sort of situation Stephen Strasburg would put me in were I to draft him.

As you know, the Nats have promised to shut their ace down when he reaches a certain number of innings. This despite being in the first real pennant race the franchise has seen in the capital, and with every game important in September. They may also KEEP him shut down for the playoffs. This seems to me utter lunacy and excessive caution, and Strasburg has said many times he does not want to give up the ball.

Anyway, what I'm wondering is what would happen were I to draft him in a 2012 league (and it tempts me -- he's a dominating pitcher). Would his reduced innings be reflected in injuries at bad times?

According to the current rules and game systems, Strasburgh would NOT be more at risk for injury. All pitchers have the same injury risk. I haven't checked his stats lately, but if he gets more than 200 IP he will likely get to start every 4th game in strat.

The main thing to consider in acquiring him for a keeper team (I.e. by trade, or by initial draft for a new keeper team) is what his long-term prognosis is, for health, effectiveness and IP. Based on the little that I know right now, he looks like a good bet. But you never know with pitchers. (with any pitcher for that matter).

As for the real life baseball situation - I think this is a medical sports injury analysis issue. If there are mechanics in his throwing delivery that are causing the problem, then it could be chronic (ongoing). He may have to change his delivery, if that is the case. Otherwise, they could be limiting his innings for years to come. If it is chronic, but it isnt realiztic to change his delivery, then i would sayjust let him pitch, and go for the championship". On the otherhand, if the medical opinion is that he just needs to rest it, I would shut him down already, if it means he will be better next year (and for years to come).

I was watching some graphics on tv today, on a sports channel. I know about zero about the sports medicine behind this, but it looked to my untrained eyes like it might be a chronic condition relating to his delivery. See above.

Pitchers who are 4-day starters can never miss a start. Pitchers who are not 5-day starters can be injured for up to 15 games. The injuries are pretty common in DH leagues - he will miss at least one start in an average league, and could miss 4 or 5. In non-DH leagues, he is less vulnerable since he can only be injured while he is batting - he would miss no starts in the majority of his leagues.

And there are plenty of keeper leagues here. See USKL, TKL, New TKL, and others. The "KL" in the league name is a big clue. Usually several of them start each winter. I will be starting one then, just for fun.

Regarding Strasburg's mechanics - as I recall, there was considerable fear of his mechanics for his long-term health while he was in college. Most of the guys who lead the rehab for these surgeries, though, understand mechanics very well and emphasize getting things right during the rehab. As I remember, the rate of blown out arms for SP has been about 10% per year pretty much throughout the history of MLB. So you're a favorite to get 5 or 6 years out of him in a keeper league. That's an eternity, although many years ago I had Glavine for his entire career in a dice and cards keeper league.

The current issue, though, is simply medical as far as I can determine, and is being pushed by his medical team (and his agent - remember, he hasn't "been paid" yet, and the agent has a vested interest in having him hit the free agent market uninjured). See Kris Medlen and Jenrry Mejia for alternative ways to deal with the aftermath of TJ surgery.

As rburgh said there are lots of keeper leagues. Check the individaul league chat thread to see the keeper league chat and draft threads. SOMO does not do anything as far as setting up keeper leagues, users create them and run them. You just need to contact a league with an opening to get in one. Then you draft and load your team like a regular SOMO "one-shot" team. There are no waiver/FA pick-ups but there is lots of trading.

As far as Strasburg, rburgh and geoff both had good points. My problem with the Nats handling of this is why didn't they give him a start here and there off during the year, and /or put him on the DL ("shoulder fatigue") for a stint or two to limit his innings. That way they could limit his innings but still have him available for the stretch run and at least some playoff innings. The way they have handled it if they follow through with shutting him down they will not have him available at all.

The injuries are pretty common in DH leagues - he will miss at least one start in an average league

Have you found that too be the case, because I almost never seem to lose pitchers to injury, maybe once a year at most for the staff.

Pitchers who are 4-day starters can never miss a start.

FYI, this is wrong information

they have to have 200 ip.

They can still get the * without that, but could go down for 15 games.

Dr. Glenn Fleisig, an expert in these issues, has often posted on the SOM Online boards. Perhaps he'll chime in (although I doubt he would or should give a specific thumbs up or down to the Nats' plan.)

It's certainly true that it's prudent to be careful with young pitchers' arms. However, anything that relies on adhering to a specific date or number of innings is clearly magical thinking, IMO. Although it's ultimately more difficult to use common sense than it is to count innings or look at a calendar, I believe that is the way to go.

Kris Medlen was mentioned earlier. Although it's unclear whether the Braves actually planned things this way, the way it's worked out was that he started the season in the bullpen and moved into the rotation mid-season. That sure makes a lot more sense to me than having a guy available in April/May but not September/October...

geekor:

I have played upwards of 20,000 games on this site now, and have not seen a 4-day starter miss a start regardless of the number of innings he pitched in real life. Possibly this is the same as the "bulletproof C" rule on the site where your last catcher can never be injured. I've used a platoon of Landrith and Hershberger a number of times (both have 6 injury chances) and have never had to use an emergency catcher.

I have seen *SP go down for 15 games. It is not the * that makes them bulletproof it is the number of actual innings pitched. There are a few *SP that get the * with slightly less than 200 IP. Any of those pitchers could get the 15 gamer. Any pitcher with at least 200 actual IP can only miss up to 3 games which only means "rest of game" in this online game.

Agree it is the 200 innings that gets the injury risk reduced. Those with < 200 and * are not extremely common and thus probably have limited use which may explain the rarity of seeing the * pitcher go down long enough to miss starts. Remember a pitcher would not only have to fit those qualifications they would also have to be good enough to be used in a strat league.

I have seen a number of * pitchers get injured but with the 3 game limitation they never miss a start so for practical purposes you can call that rest of game injury only. Also, for whatever reason the rate of pitcher injury is much lower in online strat for pitchers than for position players. It is so rare I never bother with contingency plans for a pitcher getting injured regardless of number of innings or presence of the * rating. Since jumping in to this in 2001 I bet I could count on one hand the number of pitchers I have has miss games. Well I could if those teams were available to look at.