2012 card predictions

Yeah but how do you put that somersault after a save on his card?

I'm thinking Beachy should have enough innings to get carded. If so, it should be a top tier card.

How about the closer troika of Kimbrel, Chapman, and Rodney?

Load up on all 3 of just go after 1. Sometimes in 200x games I think you can have too many great closers. When there are enough just about everyone can have a top closer advantage of grabbing one is lessened. If they do not falter though these 3 could be just enough better than next tier of closers having one of them could be an advantage.

The Chapman card will be the most interesting to see. His K rate is so high I am wondering if the Strat model of 50/50 is capable of reproducing that.

It is reproducible, but it will be amazing:

NL strikeout rate: .201
Chapman strikeout rate: .465
Chapman Strat card strikeout rate: .729
Strikeout chances on Chapman card: .729*108 = 79

In other words, if his season ended today, his card would have strikeout rolls on all columns' 5-9's, plus an additional 2,10,11,12 in one column (for example).

Kimbrel's card is going to be even better than Chapman. Another 3 K's yesterday and today. That's now 104 in 202 batters faced--a .515 strikeout rate. That will be 89 or 90 strikeout chances...two full columns plus 3,6,7,8 in the third, for example. My guess at his card right now:

column 4
2-strikeout
3-strikeout
4-strikeout
5-strikeout
6-strikeout
7-strikeout
8-strikeout
9-strikeout
10-strikeout
11-strikeout
12-strikeout

column 5
2-strikeout
3-strikeout
4-strikeout
5-strikeout
6-strikeout
7-strikeout
8-strikeout
9-strikeout
10-strikeout
11-strikeout
12-strikeout

column 6
2-out
3-strikeout
4-out
5-out
6-strikeout
7-strikeout
8-strikeout
9-out
10-WALK
11-WALK
#12-HR 1-8
flyball(lf)b

The Chapman card will be the most interesting to see...

It is reproducible, but it will be amazing:

NL strikeout rate: .201
Chapman strikeout rate: .465
Chapman Strat card strikeout rate: .729
Strikeout chances on Chapman card: .729*108 = 79

In other words, if his season ended today, his card would have strikeout rolls on all columns' 5-9's, plus an additional 2,10,11,12 in one column (for example).

I don't think 79/108 strikeout chances is possible on Chapman's card, as he has to have the same number of fielding X-chances on his card. (I don't know how many x-chances that is and I'm too lazy to count a card.)

I too am too lazy to count a card but feel compelled.
pos=xchances
1=2
2=3
3=2
4=6
5=3
6=7
7=2
8=3
9=2
= 31
108 - 31 = 77 non fielding chart chances on card. So a card cannot have more than 77 strikeouts on it.
104/202 = 51%
So if Kimbrel faced 216 hitters and the 50/50 held up for Kimbrel to strike out 51% the hitters he faced there would be a need for 33 strikeouts among the 108 chances on the hitters cards.

Maybe if improve statistical accuracy is on the computer game engine will adjust enough rolls to make it happen. But that happens with a strict nonadjusted rolling of the dice and I start believing in the ability of Mayan calendar to predict end of world.

Chapman and Kimbrel will both have great cards and will put up amazing strat seasons. But guarantee they will come up short of reproducing what they have done on the mound this year. The 50/50 model makes it impossible.

Having said that looking forward to using those cards with one as closer and one as setup.

Right. I totally brain-farted the x-card results. You're right. It won't be possible to replicate.

Ike Davis will have a VERY interesting card. I predict it will be much like the much coveted Pedro Feliz card from 03 or 04, I forget which, with tons of clutch and big HR numbers. The clutch has to be huge given the low batting average and high rbi's. Very interested to see this card next year.

Another interesting card if he gets one will be Koji Uehara. He has a strikeout per inning and a 0.74 WHIP. Batters have only hit .183 off him. Against RH hitters BA is only .140 and OBP is only 0.64. Should be an R1 rating. Could make a good RH specialist for deep bullpens.