Strategy question

[aceventura55369]

After playing, well now 3 Netplay leagues I avoid IBB's like the plague (especially w/my '55 staff, LOL). In your situation it seems even more obvious that you would pitch to him. I couldn't imagine walking him and forcing the winning run to 2nd rather than pitching to him under any circumstances, maybe if the next hitter was a pitcher or an extremely weak hitter, but thats even risky depending on who you have on the mound.

[Palanion]

Though I have never researched its effects in Strat play, in head-to-head or real baseball, I would NEVER walk a guy pushing someone who represents the tying or winning run into scoring position, because so many things can happen. Forgetting the hits, an error could allow the guy on second to score.

[gkhd11a]

I just find it hard to believe Harry you have the right stats after looking at Baseball.com

Lou Gehrigs OBP in 1934 was .465 and his extra bases hits were 16.64%, now against a 4R pitcher he would actually fall off from that? In 1934 do they show him hitting lefties better? The numbers for Gehrig you give do not seem as tho they could be accurate - they seem Fred Snodgrass like...........

[harry lime]

Sorry-- no trick question--this really happened. I'll try to be clear some things up.

[quote:0229d4535e]
Then I don't understand these cards, If I am reading your post correctly a 4R pitcher was in the game and Gehrig's card has a 43% chance of getting on base and Vosmik a right hander has a 29.6+33.8 = 63% chance of getting on base. I find that hard to believe. [/quote:0229d4535e]

No--Vosmik had a 33.8 % chance of AT LEAST getting a tie. Meaning 29.6% to get a single or more and a 4.4 chance to get a walk/HBP. So --Vosmik has a 33.8 chance of getting on base (which drives in the run)

The 29.6/33.8 differnce is solely in the walks. I did say this is assuming all singles advance 2 bases and all doubles 3. With 2 outs and the game on the line-- i think they would for the most part. But you are right--you can lessen it a little for that-- but you also have to lessen Gehrig's chances of tying it with a double.

Vosmik's odds of a single are very high-- but that;s the key here i think. It's why you don't do it. I don't even think it needs to be a .340 hitter either. I'm looking at .280 hitter and just on his card alone the odds of him getting a single are better than Gehrig getting an EXBH. (22.8- 19.7). Add in the .280 hitter's EXBH's and it rises to 29.7.

By walking Gehrig the other team now needs a single to win - that's it. Before walking Gehrig they need either a double, triple, HR or two base hits (or one walk and a base hit) And you've given up the 57% chance of getting the out(for the moment)

I agree an IBB can work at times, but i don't think this is one of them.

[harry lime]

Here's how i got my figures-

I'll just show you how I got gehrigs chance of getting an extra base hit--

according to his card he has:

12.7 HR
0.5 Trip
7.0 Double =

20.2 EXBH

Rhem (the pitcher)-

0 chance of HR
0.4 trip
4.0 2b =
4.4-

Now here's the part I'm not sure-- I add 20.2+4.4 = 24.6/2 = 12.3% chance of winning it.

Am i wrong to divide by 2? But even if--you have to double eveything, so it evens out.

The 12.3 isn't much lower than his ereal 16.6 you quoted-- mobviously due to the fact that Rhem has no HR's.

[gkhd11a]

Your calculation would be correct for the Extra Base hits.

I looked at the Strat Store to buy the CD ROM GAME but do not see where they are selling the Hall of Fame CD or 1934. Did they take it off the market to cut back on netplay? How do I get them??

Charlie

[MICHAELEVANS]

Charlie, I had a hard time getting the HOF set for CDROM too. I eventually got 1911, 1927, 1965 and HOF in Feb. 2005. To date, only 1965 and 1927 work. All I can say is it is quicker than the board game, but I am so frustrated and I don't find it very user-friendly.

[aceventura55369]

Charlie, try this link...

http://www.strat-o-matic.com/eShop/10Browse.asp