Secret Formula 2006

[J-Pav]

I can't help but continue to kick the tires on my incredibly worthless team.

Rule A1A is to read the cards.

Here's my last Finals runner up (thx to [b:2268730307]Jerlins[/b:2268730307]) team compared to my worthless piece of trash team:

Position Player OBP points, Total Bases points (vs. RHP)

C [color=green:2268730307]Barajas[/color:2268730307] 28 36 vs. [color=red:2268730307]Bako[/color:2268730307] 40 24
1B [color=green:2268730307]Casey[/color:2268730307] 40 39 vs. [color=red:2268730307]Lee[/color:2268730307] 46 66
2B [color=green:2268730307]Kennedy[/color:2268730307] 39 41 vs. [color=red:2268730307]Giles[/color:2268730307] 44 43
3B [color=green:2268730307]Ensberg[/color:2268730307] 40 41 vs. [color=red:2268730307]Mueller[/color:2268730307] 41 38
SS [color=green:2268730307]Furcal [/color:2268730307]36 35 vs. [color=red:2268730307]Young[/color:2268730307] 44 47
DH [color=green:2268730307]Lopez [/color:2268730307]42 53 vs. [color=red:2268730307]Sanchez[/color:2268730307] 39 52
LF [color=green:2268730307]Conine[/color:2268730307] 49 47 vs. [color=red:2268730307]Conine[/color:2268730307] 49 47
CF [color=green:2268730307]Jones[/color:2268730307] 33 55 vs. [color=red:2268730307]Duffy[/color:2268730307] 43 53
RF [color=green:2268730307]Ordonez[/color:2268730307] 41 36 vs. [color=red:2268730307]Jenkins[/color:2268730307] 42 45

If you add it up and divide, it's [color=green:2268730307]94 Win Team[/color:2268730307] 39 obp, 43 tb on average, and [color=red:2268730307]On the Way to Losing 100 Team[/color:2268730307] 43 obp and 46 tb versus right handers in an equally neutral park (10 for rh batters in both parks). In the Conine control group, he hit [b:2268730307].331[/b:2268730307] BA, [b:2268730307].390[/b:2268730307] OBP, [b:2268730307].440[/b:2268730307] SLG in McAfee, but he's only [i:2268730307].207[/i:2268730307], [i:2268730307].286[/i:2268730307], [i:2268730307].274[/i:2268730307] in Yankee Stadium through 60 games.

The more I look at it, the more puzzled I get. :?

[b:2268730307]Jerlins[/b:2268730307]:

I went Petco, FWIW.

[cummings2]

OK, here we go again, every time I mention this I am told I don't know what I am talking about, however given my limited experience and based only on results:

Given the ammount of Sac Bunts, H&R and SB I'd say you have quite a good ammount of restraints on the team J, my feeling is and has been for a while that you are better off running on Normal settings and releasing your "Do Nots". I wouldn't lead off with Conine Either, I'd probably go

Duffy-Giles-Lee-Jenkins-Young-Sanchez (Vs. R)

or

Sanchez-Giles-Lee-Jenkins-Young-Duffy (Vs. R) To avoid Sanchez's DPs and Try to use Duffy's + clutch to force HAL into pitching to Young.

Just my .02 though. Good luck J.

[J-Pav]

[b:099b39bc29]C2[/b:099b39bc29]:

I certainly can't get any worse, so I'm giving it a shot. Thx for the suggestion. Can you explain the logic a little more? Or direct me to another thread?

[cummings2]

J,

Sorry I don't really have any explaination. Merely what I've come to find as a pattern out of observing my Hit and Run teams.

I have run them (H&R teams) with different combos of settings and usually keep a quite detailed log of settings / matchups / results and usually the heavy restricted teams have a tendency to perform way below the expected/projected results.

FWIW I have found HAL's thresholds to be quite safe and acceptable for stealing, bunting and hit and run when running on "normal". The best way for me is to just use the "Do mores" I can't really explan why it happens (I guess I'd need to see the code for that) or run about 1000 teams with detailed logs of settings and results in order to at least have a sample of significant size.

At one point I realized that my H&R teams with multiple resptrictions were following a pattern of underachieving by ranges outside just "Bad-Rolls". Like with your team, it seems like there[i:d1e5665d96] has [/i:d1e5665d96]to be someting broken because luck can't be that bad for that long. What that something is and how it is or isn't related in some way to manager settings I really can't tell. That's why I phrased it "[i:d1e5665d96]given my limited experience and based only on results[/i:d1e5665d96]"

Sorry I can't back up what I mentioned with anything other than just the stats from the 14 Hit and Run teams I've kept a close eye on.

I just saw Sunday's results. Dang it! No matter if lee is overpaid or not and for how much...to get a .300 OBP from a 13 Mil dude is tough!

Headscratching stuff here.

[MARCPELLETIER]

Cummings,
I understand this

[quote:452b9cfb76]has been for a while that you are better off running on Normal settings and releasing your "Do Nots". [/quote:452b9cfb76]

to mean that you suggest a more liberal use of bunting and hit-and-run. I disagree. Bunting and H-R are strategies to be used only with poor hitters, and then only if they have good bunt and H-R ratings. In the case of J-Pav team, his starters, except for Bako and perhaps Mueller, are too good offensively to start using more hit-and-run or bunting. And both Bako and Mueller have D ratings for both strategies. Thus, with the exceptions of bench players like Logan and Pierre, I would strongly restrict the use of bunt and H-R through individual ratings in the case of J-Pav team. Moreover, the success rate he had so far (0% for squeeze, 50% for bunting, 50% for hit-and-run with 0 hit), even though limited to a few cases, suggest that J-Pav simply doesn't have the players to use these two strategies.

[cummings2]

You're right Marcus, I agree with the post above.

As I posted above my observations are as empirical as they come and they are derived to only from tracking several teams in which I've noticed a consistent drop in performance when the cards are checkmarked all over the place " Don't Bunt, Don't Hit and Run, Don't steal, Don't PH vs. L, Don't PH vs. R." These setting make perfect sense in pretty much all aspect of logic with any hitter above the Mendoza line. However,[i:c40226a516] in my experience[/i:c40226a516] -once again just going from experience here- the players/teams with all those marks have a tendency to underperform in ways outside a "normal" variation.

On the other hand HAL's triggers/thresholds to execute certain strategies are quite safe IMHO. Derrek Lee won't Hit ad Run if you leave him alone. No matter if it's Figgins and Podsednik and Freel all rolled into one with a SS rated 4 defensively, poor pitcher HLD and weak catcher T. Even if you tag him to H&R more and set H&R to aggresive HAL won't do it. So my logic behind those "liberal" settings is that if I know HAL won't goof up leaving it alone and if on top of that I find an underperforming pattern when I tinker with settings heavily, why mess with it?

As I mentioned before, all rational use of logic will take us to checking all the do nots with all but a very few cards. I do not argue with that logic. Only from observing certain teams in similar situations and recording their performance with as little variation as possible in their environment other than the settings (Individual and managerial) have I come to the idea that teams runs better in normal settings.

As I said before when I've shared this in the past I have been told it holds no water, and to be perfectly honest from a cold, logic point of view I agree -there is no reason to believe what I've posted and anyone who wants to disregard it is welcome to it, certainly no offense taken. I still try to prove the very thing wrong by checkmarking stuff all over.

So, yep you're right Marcus. Still I hope my logic behind the suggestions makes some sense. I know how convoluted my writing can be.

[keyzick]

Posted this as new forum at first, then realized you guys had already blown out this amazing topic stream on the 06 strategy.

I've been playing for a while...typically finish in the 80-87 win range (with occasional throwaway seasons when I test some terrible idea I have!).

Most recent 06 team looks very solid (to me). Similar ballparks throughout the league for the most part. Would love to hear feedback from some of you on how you think this team will do...where you'd target improvements, etc..

I didn't quite get the pitching I wanted, but think I still ended up pretty well off.


http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/team/team_other.html?user_id=15352


Thanks!
keyzick

[worrierking]

Just looking briefly at your team and league I am wondering why you have so many hard lefties on the team. I didn't see enough LH hitters within your division or league to justify having Nate Robertson along with three hard lefty one-out guys (LOOGYs). If it were my squad, I would have taken the cash spent on Robertson and one of the LOOGYs and put that into a generic reliever who doesn't give up long balls, someone like Eischen as a reverse LH or a RH like Dejean or Guerrier. Your park will protect you against the hits they allow and they won't give up the long ball. In my mind you need one more innings-eating reliever.

Offense looks okay, although I am not sure you will see enough LH to make Wells a good buy. I probably would have sold out for the HR rather than use guys like Grudz and Young up the middle, but power is scarce at those positions.

Do you have a role for Robertson?

Good luck

[keyzick]

Worrierking -

Thanks for the feedback. Took your advice at went with Guerrier (dropped Robertson). I think I was paying too much attention to just one team in my division (Pica...), and hoping Robertson would pay off spot-starting against his team. I agree with your assessment of another inning-eating RP though.

Had to pick up Young in waivers (Hal had given me Alex Gonzalez), was best available.

I got Wells as the only RH power hitter, along with Varitek, against lefties.

I'm never really sure how to use the reverse pitchers? Is it solely to limit switchhitters? Or is there more?

[worrierking]

[quote:91aea10f6d]I'm never really sure how to use the reverse pitchers? Is it solely to limit switchhitters? Or is there more?[/quote:91aea10f6d]

Reverse guys are very effective if you have lots of switch hitters and/or platoons in your division and league.

Conversely, if your league has lots of hard lefties and righties and few reverse guys, switch hitters and platoons are a viable option offensively.