Aggressive base running

[frog17]

I understand that HAL determines when to attempt an extra base based on the likelihood of success, but does anyone know how this is determined. In one thread someone implied that it was an average of all three outfield position's arms that would determine the likelihood that a runner would attempt to take an extra base. I had always assumed that it was based on the arm of theifielder the ball was hit to (justlike in rela baseball).
Anyone got any insights?

[cummings2]

My understanding is that it is as you described.

When you play the Comp game you get a succ. % when you are given the option to try to take the extra base or not. It is in relation to the OF's arm the ball was hit to and taking into account the game rules i.e speed, runner held, LF to 3B, RF to 3B, etc... my understanding of the aggresive settings is that they lower the % for HAL to give the green light. Basically the way you understand it.

Just my opinion though. DeanTSC is the zen master of all of this.

C2

[Mean Dean]

Yeah, that's a strange idea about the average of all three OF's arms, I dunno where a person would have gotten that from :? It's the arm of the person to whom the ball is hit, which is often specified on the card. If it isn't specified, it's to the CF. I think most people think that there end up being more plays that test the CF's arm in SOM than there are in real life. And many believe that, all other things being equal in both cases, you should put your best arm in CF in SOM, where in real life, you'd put it in RF. I can't really say that either of those things is true for sure.

Anyway, to get things in terms of percentages, you multiply the arm rating by 5% -- if it's -1, it's subtracting 5% from the runner's chance to advance; +2 adds 10% to his chances; etc. This number is added to the runner's speed number, which again, you multiply by 5% to put it in terms of percentages.

The various other modifiers are:[list:e5fb7affa7][*:e5fb7affa7]+10% with two outs[*:e5fb7affa7]-10% going to 3B on a hit to LF; +10% going to 3B on a hit to RF[*:e5fb7affa7]-5% if held on, +5% if not[/list:u:e5fb7affa7]Now, what you really want to know is what exactly the various ratings mean, and that's unknown :) I can tell you from playing the PC game that "normal" is too conservative for my taste -- the computer plays it too stationary. And I am not exactly a huge fan of speed. But it's just set to take no chances at all, and that's no good. Advancing runners is less risky than basestealing. If a straight steal doesn't work, you have no one on base at all. But when you've got multiple men on base, the trail runner limits the damage you can do to yourself, and in fact can be a major pain in the butt to the opponent. If the lead runner is going to 3rd and the defense chooses to throw for him, the batter-runner automatically goes to 2nd. So even if the lead runner's out, you've still advanced the other guy to 2nd. If the lead runner is going home, the trail runner will similarly automatically advance if the play is to home, or if the defense chooses to cut off the throw and go for the trail runner instead, then the lead runner scores. These various scenarios can easily be damned if you do/damned if you don't situations for the defense. So you want to go on lower chances than you do with basestealing, and most people will start stealing around 65%, so if you think about it, there are some pretty low numbers where you still want to go.

The icing on the cake is that HAL as defensive manager is [i:e5fb7affa7]also[/i:e5fb7affa7] conservative with respect to throwing (something you don't have a control for), and will often cede the base to you. Just the other day, the game was tied in the 8th inning, I went for home on something like a 60% chance, and HAL cut off the throw and conceded the run :shock:

So all that is why I go higher than "normal." However, "extremely aggressive" seems to be a bad idea for pretty much every setting. So I end up at "aggressive."

[cummings2]

:D

Very cool stuff Dean.

Zen master indeed 8)

[Stoney18]

Dean, thanks for the post. Like C2 says you are definitely the Zen Master and I read everything you post.

[frog17]

Thanks for the through reply, Dean. More than I was asking, but excellent to hear about. Very much appreciated.

[Loobee]

Been playing this online version since it was introduced and never knew the info you have just given Dean, awesome job !!

[Coffeeholic]

So, the obvious correlary seems to be that it's rather pointless to check your opponents throwing arms, hold ratings, etc., and change your settings accordingly?

By this I mean, if HAL is going to steal, or take an extra base at a certain percantage rate based upon your managerial setting, this percentage will automatically factor in throwing ratings, right?

[Mean Dean]

[quote:397c4eea01]So, the obvious correlary seems to be that it's rather pointless to check your opponents throwing arms, hold ratings, etc., and change your settings accordingly?[/quote:397c4eea01]IMO, yes. I don't know it for a fact, but what you describe seems to be how it works to me.

[worrierking]

If HAL has a figure in mind for each setting, let's say for example he uses a 75% success rate for base stealing with the normal setting, couldn't we determine what the percentage is by compiling a list of teams that used that setting and gathering up enough SB percentages for each team over a course of a season? After 100 teams or so we should have all the random fluctuations out shouldn't we? We couldn't use any team that changed the setting from series to series, but any team which chose a setting and stuck with it all year could be used. You can't go back and look at past teams and check their managerial settings, but going forward we should be able to do it. All three of my active teams are on "normal." If there's interest, I'd be happy to revisit this thread with totals at the end of the season. Heck, we really don't need to wait, we could all just post current totals, since the seasons don't have to be finished. We might need more teams posted to get to a true reading.

With that in mind, my three current teams all with "normal stealing" have totals as follows

SB CS
23 12
9 2
0 0

If we get enough teams posted we should figure out what percentage HAL uses. Post your teams if they are on Normal and have stayed there.