Aggressive base running

[cummings2]

Only problem with that kinda of data WK is that from what I have observed you have to look much more into the stealer, and situation. Just looking at raw Att & Succ rate gives you very skewed numbers.

Essentially you have to look, IMO at a team's entire on base log through the season. Make separate logs for each runner then keep track of every time that runner was on 1st with 2nd base open and record: Pitcher's HLD, Catchar's ARM, score, inning, # of outs, outcome of each time OB, OPS of hitter on deck and in Hole (and you assume that the runner is a held -if a * of course). My feeling is that after you have tabulated that info from every time the runner was on base, then when you determine the runners overall chances of getting lead and combine that with the battery/held penalty/bonus you can determine an overall Succ. Pct. of stealing succesfully and the obvious % with lead and % w/o lead. Then once you have all that info ready you will start seeing some pattern on when HAL gives the green light, but remember that for every time the runner was on base you have to make sure that the right pitcher's HLD/ catcher's ARM was taken into account (in case its an RP or 2nd C). That is with what Succ. % and in what situations HAL gives it a go. That's all the info that you need, whether or not it was succesful IMO is a bit irrelevant as it's just at the mercy of the roll, some really bad luck will skew things.

Anyway, you just need to do that wth one team and all the good stealers to have plenty of info, you don't need 100 teams I am currently doing so with the team I posted in the Hanley Ramirez thread. it takes time of curse but that's where the fun is, eh?

Once again, just my opinion on this.


Either way, gathering info/data is always cool, if people still want to share their goodies it would be great.

C2

[Mean Dean]

The way to test it would be to take the [i:79a7aba413]same[/i:79a7aba413] team and sim a bunch of seasons on the various settings, using the PC game. Hell, I might just do it, although not in the next few days. I think everyone has been wondering about this for a long time.

[worrierking]

As I think about it, the data would be skewed by the attempts taken at a higher percentage than the base HAL prefers. IE if the % where HAL steals is at 75% when set to normal, then the players who have a 1-19 success rate, or 95% success (at which HAL would obviously send the runner) would make the percentage higher than the base. It wouldn't help us find the percentage. Even C2's method probably wouldn't work, because you wouldn't know when the runner's lead was successful or not. IE, a stealer with a 1-18 when he get's a lead and a 1-14 when he does not, might still be sent and you would not know at which percentage he was making the attempt.

H& R attempts might also skew the percentage.

Oh well, it was a nice idea. I got a little excited there.

[frog17]

I used to change my steal settings according to whether or not teh catcher had a high T-rating. I figured that wouldn't count in teh percentages, but might give me a good chance at taking an extra base. It seemed to wrok okay against teams catchers with really bad t-ratings. often a backup catcher who was an injury replacement.

[Mean Dean]

That would probably make more sense than doing it based on arm.

[Soapcreek1]

I enjoyed reading this thread and like others, learned a lot from Dean's posts :)

One thing I would add is that (in 80s at least) you can customize stealing for the individual player so I use normal steal for the team and then tell individual basestealers (sax, molitor, reynolds, coleman) to steal more in the individual ratings. Same thing with bunters.

I just so no to H%R in general and set it to extra conservative based on my SOM pc game results.

The running thing makes sense at aggressive but I too never use extremely aggresive since watching EDavis get thrown out by JSamuel at the plate in a pc game.