The Secret Formula 2007

[STEVEPONEDAL]

If you come out of the first week, in which you play your division-mates, with a losing record is that too soon to think about making adjustments?

Thanks for the great post.

sponedal

[J-Pav]

[b:dc7684d0cd]Sponedal[/b:dc7684d0cd]:

I'm an autopilot manager. Except for match-up starting pitching (once in a blue moon), I rarely do [i:dc7684d0cd]ANYTHING[/i:dc7684d0cd] after the season begins. Maybe I'll shake up a lineup because it makes me feel better about doing SOMETHING sometimes.

Otherwise, I try and leave things well enough alone.

:D

[STEVEPONEDAL]

[quote:5e3f242468="J-Pav"][b:5e3f242468]Sponedal[/b:5e3f242468]:

I'm an autopilot manager. Except for match-up starting pitching (once in a blue moon), I rarely do [i:5e3f242468]ANYTHING[/i:5e3f242468] after the season begins. Maybe I'll shake up a lineup because it makes me feel better about doing SOMETHING sometimes.

Otherwise, I try and leave things well enough alone.

:D[/quote:5e3f242468]

J-Pay,

I don't know if I have the discipline not to tweak. But your record speaks for itself.

[Play By The Rules]

I think a key for '07 is adjusting the normal wisdom to accept a "3" at 2B. Just too many bargains here compared to Hudson's price tag. I only try for Hudson in a neutral to pitchers' park, mostly which I don't play much.

As far as relief I still stand by the old school idea that you should spend the big bucks on your innings guys, and used the cheapies to close. Sure, I lose some games in the last at bats. But a setup guy will have twice the innings of a closer even in the best circumstances, so it makes more sense moneyballwise.

Guys like Coffey, McBride, Schoeneweis, Cordero, etc. make excellent closers if sequestered to their strong card side. Sure HAL makes them look like schmucks sometimes, but if he didn't their price tags would be considerably higher. Plus this allows you to use two other cheapies as "don't use before the 8th", effectively hiding four cheap highly directional guys.

Heilman is a tremendous value and you can get a lot of mileage out of him in a hitters' park, especially with a Kuo chaser.

I just never believed in this "formula" idea, I believe you can win many different ways in this game, although I admit this year more than ever I tend to go with the same players over and over again.

[J-Pav]

To add to your thoughts, I think of my defense as groups of x rolls:

1. SS
2. 2B
3. CF, 3B, C
4. LF, RF, 1B

I start with the SS, 2B and CF guys. I like for the range totals to be no more than [i:756bc0854c]seven[/i:756bc0854c] (the formula allows one 3 and two 2s here for me, although 1s and 2s are more ideal if you can get what you like).

So let's say I put the 3 at 2B (I almost always do, favoring German here, but you're right, many others as well). That means I must have 1s and 2s at the other two positions.

CF, 3B and C should total no more than [i:756bc0854c]eight [/i:756bc0854c]range points (for me). So if I have a 1 in CF, I can use a 4 and a 3 (or better) at 3B and C.

Lastly, LF, RF, 1B should total no more than [i:756bc0854c]nine[/i:756bc0854c] range points (for me). So if I have Pujols at 1B, I would not hesitate to use a pair of 4s in the OF, or heaven forbid, a 3 and a 5 ( :shock: ). It hasn't come to that yet, because there are so many better options and I tend to be somewhat defensive minded as it is. But I think it is doable.

So that's my overall working framework.

To add to your bullpen insights, I agree entirely. In fact, I kind of like the fact that my cheapie closers sometimes end the season with horrendous looking ERAs and WHIPS. It camouflages their stellar "one or two outs when you need them" skills with meaningless innings where HAL leaves them in on a mop up assignment and they get shellacked. So I'll have a cheapie with a 5.00 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, but 12 saves, and only one blown save and one loss. I'll take that every time.

But let's just keep that one to ourselves, this is [i:756bc0854c]secret[/i:756bc0854c] stuff after all. :wink:

[J-Pav]

After four years of writing this, the [i:9cebdcce66]Old Guard[/i:9cebdcce66] has probably grown tired of reading it.

So I've moved this year's The Theory in Action team to start my first blog entry. HAL hates the team already, a 1-2 start with injuries to both Mauer and Bay in Game One.

So for you newbies out there, check out my new sporting blog. I posted a link to my team, and listed the autodraft card, waiver claims, salary construction, etc. all for your reading pleasure. We can talk about the finer points there, without clogging up the SOM Online Forum.

Hopefully my luck will improve in the weeks ahead! :P

[cummings2]

J,

As always, a pretty good read. Thnx for this 4th installment.

Only food I'd throw for thought as far as salary construction:

IMO speed is a bit too expensive this set. Look at Crawford and Endy Chavez as a comparison. So, when factoring the moola spent on individual players don't be fooled by the pricetag :wink:

Take care J, Keep up the good work.

C2

[the splinter]

Crawford has much better pop and is healthy.

[J-Pav]

[quote:9df72c6a71="Aray0113"]1. What adjustments, if any, do you make in the Secret Formula (either the actual formula or the team that you build) to account for hitters parks like '07 Coors?[/quote:9df72c6a71]

[b:9df72c6a71]Aray[/b:9df72c6a71]:

I don't really use "a" formula or "the" formula when I'm team building, so there's no really good answer for you. Most of what I do (I guess) is a combination of trial and error and the resulting instinct that comes from playing a lot. At the end of the year, when I look around to see what everyone else has been doing, I see a pattern in the better teams. My own better teams often fit the "profile" as well. The "formula" is just another name for this profile. Remember, "Secret Formula" is tongue in cheek. It's just a synonym for standard better vet practice or whatever you want to call it.

So to answer your question, try to find winning Coors type teams in the forums or at the tour home page and see what they're doing differently. My opinion is that it's a little uphill in the hitters parks this season. If you want to go hitters park, go [b:9df72c6a71]VERY LOW[/b:9df72c6a71] ballpark singles (like Great American) and keep good balance (ie, [u:9df72c6a71]don't[/u:9df72c6a71] go eight big bangers weak on speed and defense).

[quote:9df72c6a71="Aray0113"]2. Do you simply adjust up or down if you want to try the Secret Formula for building a $100M or a $60M team?[/quote:9df72c6a71]

No, it does not carry over as well, as these leagues sort of have their own personalities. So it's not a matter of just adjusting the percentages to the different salary caps. Again, it's usually just spending the time to compile a good list of teams which appear to be doing something right, and finding the patterns.

If I can get around to it, I'll add some more food for thought on this in the blog.