The Secret Formula 2007

[J-Pav]

Every year, I post a link to a team that I draft while writing The Secret Formula. It's a chance to sample my own cooking, while sharing some insights with new managers just learning the game, or with veteran managers looking for a different player's perspective. The team link is posted here on the first day of the season, so you know I didn't cherry pick a successful team after the fact.

Here's a link to my team:

[url=http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2007/team/team_other.html?user_id=10813]The Secret Formula: The Theory in Action[/url]

Since I wrote about trying to give your pitchers the best chance to succeed, I decided to enter with RFK Stadium (Singles 1-1, 1-1, Home Runs 1-5, 1-3) to give myself the best chance of finishing well in the earned runs allowed category. The league average came out Singles 1-9, 1-9, Home Runs 1-8, 1-8. A little on the pitcher friendly side of neutral, much like you'd see in any given 2007 autoleague.

Here's my autodraft card in the exact order it was submitted (replacements in CAPS):

1. C. Guillen SS
2. I. Suzuki RF - [i:d22c0ac5a9]J.D. DREW RF[/i:d22c0ac5a9]
3. B. Webb SP (*) - [i:d22c0ac5a9]R. HARDEN SP[/i:d22c0ac5a9]
4. J. Mauer C
5. J. Bay LF
6. J. Dye RF
7. L. Castillo 2B - [i:d22c0ac5a9]J. KENT 2B[/i:d22c0ac5a9]
8. R. Zimmerman 3B
9. J. Peavy SP (*) - [i:d22c0ac5a9]J. BONDERMAN SP (*)[/i:d22c0ac5a9]
10. P. Ozuna LF
11. K. Rogers SP (*)
12. S. Shields RP
13. C. Schilling SP (*)
14. C. Ray RP
15. M. Thornton RP
16. J. Beimel RP - [i:d22c0ac5a9]D. MICELI RP[/i:d22c0ac5a9]
17. F. Cordero RP
18. M. Izturis 3B
19. J. Peralta RP
20. P. Phillips C
21. W. Taveras CF
22. B. Harris 2B
23. D. Erstad CF
24. P. Byrd SP
25. T. Womack 2B

So I opened up with 20 of 25 selections and the last free agent claims position. I didn't chase and miss a bunch of high dollar guys, I spent some time figuring out who I wanted at the bottom of the salary construction table and moved my way up. It worked out well. I ended up with seven of nine offensive players I wanted, leaving only two or three holes to fill there. My pitching obviously needed some work, so I focused my energy there, putting Randy Johnson and Ervin Santana [i:d22c0ac5a9]one-two[/i:d22c0ac5a9] on the waiver claims card. I had five additional players listed, but none remained on the final roster.

[b:d22c0ac5a9]I. Salary Construction[/b:d22c0ac5a9]

When we were all done scurrying about, this is what I ended up with as compared to my salary construction framework (the best record teams' averages are on the left):

1. $6.29 - $4.92 J. Zumaya RP
2. $5.21 - $4.44 R. Johnson SP (*)
3. $4.26 - $4.36 S. Shields RP
4. $3.52 - $3.83 K. Rogers SP (*)
5. $2.87 - $3.00 C. Schilling SP (*)
6. $2.20 - $2.99 E. Santana SP (*)
7. $1.78 - $2.76 C. Hensley SP/RP
8. $1.38 - $0.90 F. Cordero RP
9. $x.xx - $0.86 K. Birkins RP
10.$x.xx - $0.83 J. Beimel RP
11.$x.xx - $0.50 P. Byrd SP

1. $10.12 - 8.49 J. Mauer C
2. $7.60 - $7.66 J. Bay LF
3. $6.64 - $7.22 C Guillen SS
4. $5.78 - $5.90 J. Dye RF
5. $4.94 - $5.71 L. Overbay 1B
6. $4.01 - $5.67 R. Zimmerman 3B
7. $3.21 - $4.26 B. Roberts 2B
8. $2.24 - $1.74 P. Ozuna LF
9. $1.86 - $1.18 W. Taveras CF
10.$1.25 - $1.04 K. Lofton
11.$x.xx - $0.62 W. Bloomquist CF
12.$x.xx - $0.61 D. Navarro C
13.$x.xx - $0.50 N. Perez 2B


$29.39 on pitching ($17.52 SP, $11.87 RP), $50.60 on hitting, $0.01 left in the bank. I had to improvise my salary construction when I missed B. Webb with the third pick. There were no high dollar (*) SPs left over, and none surfaced before opening night. Basically it just allowed me the left over salary to upgrade the lower priced guys. If a Halladay, or Webb, or J. Santana would have shown up as available on the free agent list, I would've grabbed him and the salary construction would have worked out more like the best teams averages. As it stands, I'm pretty happy with where I ended up.

[b:d22c0ac5a9]II. Pitching [/b:d22c0ac5a9]

I like my starting pitchers okay enough, although if I would have missed R. Johnson I would've scrapped the whole thing and built around five non (*) SPs. As it is, I have four starters who should get me 250 innings apiece, easy. Zumaya and Shields will get the ball to Cordero/Beimel for the close. Birkins is my LOOGy. Six pitchers have negative hold ratings, and six have eight or more double play rolls on each side. These are all good things.

[b:d22c0ac5a9]III. Defense[/b:d22c0ac5a9]

I'm very sound defensively. Up the middle I'm 2B-2, SS-2, CF-2, with a 1 at 3B and 2s at C and 1B.

[b:d22c0ac5a9]IV. Offense[/b:d22c0ac5a9]

Lots of lineup diversity, with big bats in Dye and Bay, and to a slightly lesser extent Mauer, Guillen, Overbay and Zimmerman. Small ball at the bottom of the order with Taveras, Roberts and Lofton/Ozuna. Lots of stolen bases, lots of bunts, and hopefully lots of low dollar guys in scoring position when Mauer and Guillen come up at the top of the order. Hopefully I can push across the 850 runs needed to compete offensively.

[b:d22c0ac5a9]V. Players Suited to the Park[/b:d22c0ac5a9]

Everyone should do well in pitchers parks, with just enough power to compete in the three neutral to hitters parks.

[b:d22c0ac5a9]VI. HAL[/b:d22c0ac5a9]

Hopefully in the pitcher friendly RFK Stadium with strong middle relief, HAL will bestow an enhanced pythagorean record on this team. 90 wins would be wonderful.

[b:d22c0ac5a9]VII. Win The Division[/b:d22c0ac5a9]

Well we're off. Mauer and Bay each get injured for three and two games respectively in Game One. I lose Games Two and Three for a 1-2 start. There can be no doubt that HAL hates people posting their teams before the last out of the Finals is played, so I'm trying to overcome a lot here.

But it's a long season, and hopefully HAL will grow to like me more in the weeks ahead.

[J-Pav]

As we wind down the year in Strat-O-Matic 2007 Online, I discovered a few more nuggets to share and kick around.

The posts abound with frustration at the ever-diminishing available slice of SOM pie. It simply continues to be increasingly more difficult to win year after year. As evidence, I present the following.

My five best teams have averaged 95 wins. My five worst teams have averaged 75 wins. That's a pretty wide spread, so I thought a quick stats review might offer up some insights to learn from my own style of cooking.

I was absolutely shocked to discover that I almost cannot differentiate my best teams from my worst teams (apart from their pythagorean projection, or net runs).

My five best teams averaged 95 wins with $29 mil spent on pitching that yielded a 1.28 WHIP. My five worst teams averaged 20 less wins with $31 mil spent on pitching that yielded a 1.31 WHIP. Same defenses. Often lots of the same actual players! But obviously, I scored far less runs with the worse performing teams, on average 75 or so fewer runs than the better teams. So the order of the day becomes adding 0.45 more runs per game to the offensive production.

My better teams performed best in pitcher's park environments. I say this not because I think pitcher's parks are necessarily [i:6696de7bd0]better[/i:6696de7bd0], but because it apparently works with my "style" of play (although you should remember that [b:6696de7bd0]The Secret Formula[/b:6696de7bd0] best records teams overwhelmingly chose pitcher's parks).

Bearing all this in mind, I put together a new team with my last free credit of '07 (click on the link):

[url=http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2007/team/team_other.html?user_id=14589]The Secret Formula Redux[/url] (Team name is [i:6696de7bd0]Hoosier Daddy[/i:6696de7bd0])

[b:6696de7bd0]I. Salary Construction[/b:6696de7bd0]

1. [b:6696de7bd0]$6.29[/b:6696de7bd0]-$6.93 Webb
2. [b:6696de7bd0]$5.21[/b:6696de7bd0]-$5.17 Arroyo
3. [b:6696de7bd0]$4.26[/b:6696de7bd0]-$5.04 Francis
4. [b:6696de7bd0]$3.52[/b:6696de7bd0]-$4.44 Johnson, R.
5. [b:6696de7bd0]$2.87[/b:6696de7bd0]-$4.36 Shields
6. [b:6696de7bd0]$2.20[/b:6696de7bd0]-$2.76 Hensley
7. [b:6696de7bd0]$1.78[/b:6696de7bd0]-$2.02 Kennedy
8. [b:6696de7bd0]$1.38[/b:6696de7bd0]-$0.93 Valverde

Add in Peralta and Beimel and the pitching salary comes out to $32.98.

For the offense, I chose this:

1. [b:6696de7bd0]$10.12[/b:6696de7bd0]-$9.18 Scott
2. [b:6696de7bd0]$7.60[/b:6696de7bd0]-$8.49 Mauer
3. [b:6696de7bd0]$6.64[/b:6696de7bd0]-$6.38 Guerrero
4. [b:6696de7bd0]$5.78[/b:6696de7bd0]-$3.99 Gload
5. [b:6696de7bd0]$4.94[/b:6696de7bd0]-$3.97 Young
6. [b:6696de7bd0]$4.01[/b:6696de7bd0]-$3.76 Grudzielanek
7. [b:6696de7bd0]$3.21[/b:6696de7bd0]-$3.45 Cirillo
8. [b:6696de7bd0]$2.24[/b:6696de7bd0]-$2.83 Pierre
9. [b:6696de7bd0]$1.86[/b:6696de7bd0]-$1.61 Sheffield (vs. LHP)
10. [b:6696de7bd0]$1.25[/b:6696de7bd0]-$1.04 Lofton (vs. RHP)

What do you notice is [u:6696de7bd0]different[/u:6696de7bd0] about this particular lineup? The answer in just a bit...

[b:6696de7bd0]II. $32 million on pitching, $48 million on hitting (or thereabouts).[/b:6696de7bd0]

$32.98 in pitching salary, as pointed out above. It's a bit high, but I like my hitters where I'm at, so I'm allocating four million "bonus bucks" to the pitching staff. I've done best in that $28-29 mil range, though, so I hope this isn't a blunder.

[b:6696de7bd0]III. Spend for "1s" and "2s" at SS, CF and 2B.[/b:6696de7bd0]

Young is a 3 at SS, Pierre is a 2 in CF and Grudzielanek is a 2 at 2B. Other than Guerrero as a 4 in RF, I'm sound defensively everywhere else (1B-2, 3B-3, LF-3, C-2 (-2 arm). I recognize that Pierre's +3 arm is something of a liability, but I particularly wanted Pierre in CF, and I wanted Young at SS (despite his 3 range).

Incidentally, I had the 11th waiver pick, so I ended up with the vast majority of these selections making it through the autodraft.

[b:6696de7bd0]IV. Score Runs and Do Not Allow Runs[/b:6696de7bd0]

Sounds easy, right? But [b:6696de7bd0]HOW[/b:6696de7bd0]??

This is how I'm gonna try it. Something I've been fooling around with in the back of my brain is what I call "Net WHIP." To get Net WHIP, I add up my offensive hits and walks and divide it by [i:6696de7bd0]my pitchers'[/i:6696de7bd0] total innings. It's not an exact science, but you get the point. The end result is to filter out the ballpark effects and have a basis to compare all teams equally.

My best effort to date was my 95 win team that posted 1658 hits and 585 walks divided by 1452 IP. This gave me a 1.55 Offensive WHIP over a 1.33 Defensive WHIP (for a net 0.22). I cannot overstate how huge this is.

Getting back to my five best teams, they sported a 1.42 average offensive WHIP. The five worst teams, 1.36. Now, recall that my pitching numbers were almost identical, so the difference between 95 and 75 wins in my world is less than half a run of offense per game.

Incidentally, The Secret Formula best records teams (all twenty of them) also averaged a 1.42 offensive WHIP (over a 1.32 defensive WHIP, or +0.10 points net).

(Isn't fifth grade math fun!)

So here's the plan, patient readers. Since the walks were the same between my five good teams (551 on avg) and my five poor teams (543 on avg), I'm going to maximize as best I can the chance to simply [b:6696de7bd0][i:6696de7bd0]get more hits[/i:6696de7bd0][/b:6696de7bd0].

1. Scott (19 hit points vs lhp, 36 hit points vs rhp)
2. Mauer (36, 37)
3. Guerrero (42, 32)
4. Gload (34, 40)
5. Young (26, 33)
6. Grudzielanek (27, 33)
7. Cirillo (50, 27)
8. Pierre (33, 30)
9. Sheffield (33 vs. LHP)
10.Lofton (32 vs. RHP)

That amounts to [i:6696de7bd0]33 hit points per batter[/i:6696de7bd0] on each side of the plate. That's a pretty healthy amount.

But WAIT! THERE's MORE!!

In a further effort to push those necessary 0.45 runs per game across the plate, I made a concerted effort to NOT STRIKE OUT, something I've never before targeted with one of my teams. With the exception of Luke Scott, (the straw that stirs this drink and selected with my #8 waiver pick) who might strike out 150 times, no one else should have 100+ strikeouts and in total I'm shooting for less than 700 offensive K's. This is why I particularly wanted Pierre in CF. The guy simply does not strike out.

My best teams average around 1059 k's per season (or 17% of most plate appearances, i.e. at bats plus walks), while the worst teams average somewhat more at 1140 k's per season, or 19% of plate appearances. [u:6696de7bd0]Why not go for 10% then???[/u:6696de7bd0] I'm always bemoaning my lack of offense anyway, and since double plays are so [i:6696de7bd0]2006[/i:6696de7bd0] (sorry, [b:6696de7bd0]C2[/b:6696de7bd0]), why not see if making more contact will yield those precious extra runs?

(Okay, [b:6696de7bd0]Cummings[/b:6696de7bd0], double plays still matter. There.)

[b:6696de7bd0]V. Choose Players Suited to Your Park[/b:6696de7bd0]

That's what I did. Scott, Mauer and Guerrero for batting average, OBP and SLG, Young, Gload and Cirillo for the next tier, and Pierre, Lofton/Sheffield (and Grudz!) for hits and intangibles (SB's, bunts, etc.). Lots of hits, very few strikeouts, sound defense, some speed on the bases.

Additionally, I have two LH (*) starters to take advantage of my ballpark singles (1-10 lefties, 1-1 righties) and I have five lefty bats of my own versus RHP, four versus LHP, balanced throughout the lineup to keep HAL's opposing bullpen selections off balance.

[b:6696de7bd0]VI. Worship HAL[/b:6696de7bd0]

I love HAL, and HAL likes me okay, but HAL [i:6696de7bd0]hates[/i:6696de7bd0] my freaking Secret Formula team. How's this for offense: Bay (.191 BA, .297 OBP, .346 SLG); Guillen (.252 BA, .335 OBP, .418 SLG); Dye (.203 BA, .269 OBP, .391 SLG); Zimmerman (.247 BA, .314 OBP, .426 SLG). It's gonna be pretty tough to win with a line like that. In fact, how I'm even playing .500 ball with 35 negative net runs, 50 unearned runs allowed and 68 errors in 72 games is beyond me.

Maybe while HAL is busy hating The Secret Formula team, this one can sneak through under the radar.

[b:6696de7bd0]VII. Win your division.[/b:6696de7bd0]

We've got the theory down. Now for the execution part...

For all you [b:6696de7bd0]PBTR[/b:6696de7bd0] ([i:6696de7bd0]six rings[/i:6696de7bd0]) fans out there, Bickel's Bombers will be battling [b:6696de7bd0]edgecitytx[/b:6696de7bd0] ([i:6696de7bd0]five rings[/i:6696de7bd0]) and [b:6696de7bd0]litangel[/b:6696de7bd0] ([i:6696de7bd0]four rings[/i:6696de7bd0]) for top dog in the Western Division shootout. Even the newb went for The Cell in that division! That's [b:6696de7bd0]15[/b:6696de7bd0] rings in one division my friends. They and others will be keeping it honest for the duration of TSN_5688.

Expect some flambostulating in future posts if I can even keep pace with this competition.

P.S. Joe Beimel was on [i:6696de7bd0]all[/i:6696de7bd0] of my very best performing teams this year. Maybe [i:6696de7bd0]he[/i:6696de7bd0] is The Secret Formula.

[J-Pav]

In the [b:1f0db0e676]Secret Formula[/b:1f0db0e676] post, I polled 20 best records teams to see what those teams had in common. The hope was to gain a little insight into which attributes are most necessary in building teams that both score runs offensively and prevent runs defensively, while more importantly compiling [i:1f0db0e676]wins[/i:1f0db0e676].

I like to stress pitching and defense, so for this post I'm going to focus on the first one, more specifically, [i:1f0db0e676]starting[/i:1f0db0e676] pitching.

Over the last four years, the better teams have tended to spend roughly 40% of team salary on pitching, or $32 mil. That broke down into roughly $20 mil on starters and $12 mil on relievers. I was always curious about this number, because statistically the SOM outcomes are 50% hitters cards, 36.1% pitchers cards and 13.9% from the [url=http://andrew-stevens.tripod.com/index/stratfield.html]fielding charts[/url].

This means we should have been seeing $28.88 spent on pitching (36.1% of $80 mil) on balance. My guess is that the extreme hitters parks and the undervalued home runs and walks of seasons past simply overwhelmed the opposition pitching, and the SOM supply/demand curve required more allocation to pitching. The market settled on $32 mil.

In 2007, with the extreme hitters parks no more, the 20 teams with the best records spent on average [b:1f0db0e676]$17.47[/b:1f0db0e676] for starting pitching and [b:1f0db0e676]$11.35[/b:1f0db0e676] on relievers for, lo and behold, $28.82 mil. The round peg is back in the round hole.

So now we've got a proven framework to start with. The goal now becomes making the most of that allocation by finishing among the leaders in Team Pitching (or Earned Runs Allowed). Generally, our team needs to be around 4.22 in ERA and around 1.32 in WHIP if we hope to compete with the best records teams. In addition to our pitchers themselves, our team defense and our ballpark selection will also influence our pitching statistics.

For now, let's remove those two considerations from the equation and focus only on our starting pitcher selections. We'll revisit those topics another time.

Do you think that certain pitchers are overvalued? Undervalued? I have strong personal opinions about both. Unfortunately, the reason for those "feelings" are probably based more on superstition than the cold hard facts. If you need rain, and then you see someone do a silly dance, and after doing so, it begins to rain, you probably feel hard pressed to dance the next time you need some rain. When you see Jaime Moyer or Josh Beckett win 20 games for another team, and you select them next time for your own team and they subsequently win 20 games for you, you become a believer.

The next time you are thinking about dancing, consider the following:

I polled my last five $80 mil leagues for all starting pitching. The expectations are thus:

If you spend $6 mil or more on a starting pitcher, on average you can expect a 3.79 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. You have a 66% chance of any pitcher in this price range winning 15 [i:1f0db0e676]or more[/i:1f0db0e676] games (emphasis on the OR MORE).

If you spend $4 mil to $5.99 mil on a starting pitcher, on average you can expect a 4.21 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. You have a 43% chance of any pitcher in this price range winning 15 or more games (no emphasis here on the OR MORE).

If you spend $2 mil to $3.99 mil on a starting pitcher, on average you can expect a 4.82 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. You have a 27% chance of any pitcher in this price range winning 15 or more games.

If you spend $1.99 mil or less on a starting pitcher, on average you can expect a 5.80 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. You have an 8% chance of any pitcher in this price range winning 15 or more games.

I thought it might take more than five leagues of computations to do the study justice, but quickly found that the breakdowns were predictable. There's not a lot of variation at all among the different leagues.

What does this tell us? Well, at least we're facing east for the sunrise. So the next time you feel compelled to pick Boof Bonser for your ace because he just won 20 games for [b:1f0db0e676]Cummings[/b:1f0db0e676], you can't say I didn't tell you so. Picture your neighbors pointing and laughing at you, out in the scorching sun, doing your dance. It'll help, I promise.

You've got $17.47 to spend on starting pitching. You might consider spending roughly $4.50 mil on each of your four (*) starters, or maybe $4.50 mil for one (*) starter and $3.50 mil on four (non *) starters. How you choose is a function of (1.) Your belief system, (2.) How you prioritize your draft card, (3.) Your ballpark selection and team defense, and (4.) Your analysis of the oppositions' strengths and weaknesses. If it rains when you select Boof, then by all means add the difference somewhere else where you think you can help improve your team.

You can also bring to bear here the salary construction chart:

1. $6.29 (Range: $4.36-$7.56)
2. $5.21 ($2.87-$7.26)
3. $4.26 ($2.41-$6.99)
4. $3.52 ($2.17-$6.93)
5. $2.87 ($1.58-$4.19)
6. $2.20 ($1.06-$3.10)
7. $1.78 ($0.86-$2.65)
8. $1.38 ($0.57-$2.29)

Remember, you're going to have to allocate salary to relievers as well, and on balance there's a lot of variation here, but it might be worth some of your consideration.

Lastly, remember that [i:1f0db0e676]luck[/i:1f0db0e676] will definitely play a roll in the final outcome. Don't be too down if it doesn't work out, and don't be too elated if your dance brings rain. It will all even out over the long SOM year.

[J-Pav]

The quick drive by on relief pitching arrives at the same conclusion as for starting pitching: [i:cde8de8997]In the end, everybody gets what they paid for[/i:cde8de8997].

I didn't filter out the SPs that find their way into the RP stats, because there's not [i:cde8de8997]that[/i:cde8de8997] many of them (but they are in there). What I found was:

If you spend [i:cde8de8997]$4 mil or more[/i:cde8de8997] on a relief pitcher, on average you can expect a [b:cde8de8997]3.24 ERA[/b:cde8de8997] and a [b:cde8de8997]1.15 WHIP[/b:cde8de8997]. Across the board, in any given league, there is usually less than one RP per team in this price range (nine in this price range out of about 66 overall relievers).

If you spend [i:cde8de8997]$2 mil to $3.99 mil[/i:cde8de8997] on a relief pitcher, on average you can expect a [b:cde8de8997]3.92 ERA[/b:cde8de8997] and a [b:cde8de8997]1.33 WHIP[/b:cde8de8997]. There are usually one or two RPs per team in this price range (18 out of about 66 overall relievers).

If you spend [i:cde8de8997]$1.99 mil or less[/i:cde8de8997] on a relief pitcher, on average you can expect a [b:cde8de8997]4.85 ERA[/b:cde8de8997] and a [b:cde8de8997]1.54 WHIP[/b:cde8de8997]. There are usually more than three RPs per team in this price range (39 in this range out of about 66 overall relievers).

I'm sort of surprised to see how little is actually allocated to the pen. No surprise though, the key to successful relief pitching appears to be [i:cde8de8997]usage[/i:cde8de8997]. Generally speaking, the fewer innings of relief work a pitcher gets, the better his pitching statistics, even despite his salary. So the best way to assure your low dollar guys don't get killed is make sure they are in the game as little as possible. I would guess that if you have starters who are getting you very deep into the game, you might consider the Stud Closer option. If your starters are getting you somewhat or not so deep into the game, a high dollar R2 or R3 middle reliever probably makes more sense.

[STEVEPONEDAL]

Hry J-Pav,

Hoosier daddy's pitching staff looks to be off to the same start as mine. It is getting better as the season proceeds plus I picked up Zambrano in a trade.

Anyway on a new team, I picked up Beimel and Cordero as my 2-headed closer.

On their cards, do you quik hook em and limit their innings in any way?

Thanks

sponedal

[J-Pav]

Avoid weak side.
Quick hook.
Max 1-2 innings.

Manager Strategy: Maximize closer.
Put Beimel to close vs. lefties, Cordero vs. righties.

Make sure you have adequate innings from set-up relief pitchers, and it doesn't hurt if they can get an out or two as a closer (R3/C1, i.e.)

[STEVEPONEDAL]

I have Littleton as my set-up guy.

Here's the team if you are interested.

Thanks Steve


http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2007/team/team_other.html?user_id=16909

[teamnasty]

J-Pav: When you did your secret formula study of the 18 best record teams in your 18 leagues I'm assuming you chose the teams with the best actual records in each league, not the best "expected" Pythagorean records. Am I right? And if so, wouldnt it be interesting to study the 18 best Pythagorean teams instead? I'm curious as to how many of the 18 number one seeds also "deserved" it according to Pythagorus, and whether your conclusions would change, even if only at the margins.

[J-Pav]

[quote:89f6b1da78="teamnasty"]When you did your secret formula study of the 18 best record teams in your 18 leagues I'm assuming you chose the teams with the best actual records in each league, not the best "expected" Pythagorean records. Am I right?[/quote:89f6b1da78]

It was the best actual records.

[quote:89f6b1da78="teamnasty"]And if so, wouldnt it be interesting to study the 18 best Pythagorean teams instead? I'm curious as to how many of the 18 number one seeds also "deserved" it according to Pythagorus, and whether your conclusions would change, even if only at the margins.[/quote:89f6b1da78]

I would guess that the best actual records teams and the best pythag records teams would be more or less interchangeable. "Deserving" is a tricky thing. All teams can probably go somewhere around +/- 8 wins in any given simulation (luck is obviously the big [i:89f6b1da78]X factor[/i:89f6b1da78] here). So any team with (almost) any minimal structure can win any one league on any given day. You're probably not missing anything by not sampling the pythag winners in isolation.

In case anybody is unsure, I do understand the inherent disadvantages to "averaging" everything. If you took all the wildcard winning teams and sorted [i:89f6b1da78]them[/i:89f6b1da78] by The Secret Formula guidelines, what would you find? Probably only that you can't see a whole heck of a lot of difference between the best records teams and the wildcard teams! However, I will argue that if you took the worst records in the league (or the worst pythag records) you would start seeing major differences.

This is why I present this as sort of a newbie methodology. There's the above .500 managers, the .500 managers and the sub .500 managers. If you understand the basic fundamentals of the game and how it all works, you can avoid being in the bottom third by following the formula "guidelines" as I've laid them out. Hopefully this will keep new managers from the "one and done experience" which ends in total frustration.

After that, there's no promises. You can do everything right and still lose. There's always more to learn and there's an endless assortment of strategies to pursue.

[i:89f6b1da78][Shameless plug to HAL: FWIW, if you haven't spread at least two 5-packs out over the course of several months (to digest and learn from the experience of watching things very closely), you're not going to learn the game to the point where you will ever likely manage above average.][/i:89f6b1da78]

Having said all that, I was hoping this thread would finally go away. My two posted teams have completely underperformed, which goes to show you firsthand what happens when you post your teams [i:89f6b1da78]before[/i:89f6b1da78] the last out is played. HAL just completely hated this year's Secret Formula effort from day one (actually from Game One). The other posted team was just a miscalculated experiment (the hits and xb hits are simply not overcoming the lack of walks and homers and the low strikeouts have made no discernible difference in moving across more runs).

So this years lesson is just a healthy serving of humble pie. I'm surprised I couldn't win 90 games with this team, I've won lots of games with similar lineups all year. You'll have to take my word for it that it was just a downside outlier, and the original "theory" was sound. But if you think not, anyone can post their own team anytime and give it a go on their own!

:o

[STEVEPONEDAL]

J-Pav,

In the 20 or so leagues you have been assessing, have you run into any winners in Camden Yards?

Thanks

Steve