Predicting the future ...

Predicting the future ...

Postby AeroDave10 » Sat Oct 04, 2008 10:06 pm

I wonder if anyone has insight as we look ahead to next year's card set. I am most interested in some of the more subjective card values. I see that someone already started a thread about injury ratings, so here are 5 burning questions:

1. Is there some kind of cutoff for SP vs. SP*? (IP?, GS?)

2. Are there any numbers to help predict defensive ratings?

3. Does anyone of a site that shows complex statistics like BA w/RISP and 2 outs (i.e. the $ symbol on someone's card)?

4. How many innings/games does someone have to play to qualify at a position?

5. Any way to predict who will or will not have lots of #s (i.e. bpHRs)?
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Re: Predicting the future ...

Postby Palmtana » Sat Oct 04, 2008 11:41 pm

[quote:1e3f530ff5]4. How many innings/games does someone have to play to qualify at a position?[/quote:1e3f530ff5]

When Ichiro made some starts in CF in 2006 I e-mailed SOM and ask them the same question.
This was their reply:

[quote:1e3f530ff5]Most positions require just one inning of play to get a rating. For additional outfield spots though, a minimum amount of innings is required to get a rating, usually around 8-10 innings.
This changes each season though. [/quote:1e3f530ff5]
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Re: Predicting the future ...

Postby thisisray » Sun Oct 05, 2008 12:28 am

1. Is there some kind of cutoff for SP vs. SP*? (IP?, GS?)


i believe its over 200 innings. or something like that.
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Postby AeroDave10 » Sun Oct 05, 2008 12:35 am

It's not exactly 200 IP because there were a number of guys who threw less than 200 innings (as few as 191 2/3) that had a * while others who threw more innings did not have the *. As a follow-up to the still unanswered question, I would also like to know what differentiates an S7/S6/S5. Is it average innings per start? What are the cutoffs for that?

For those of you interested in a league like the one that was just formed where you forecast the 2008 cards, these are important considerations, I think.
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Postby Stoney18 » Sun Oct 05, 2008 3:10 am

[quote:719a250205]1. Is there some kind of cutoff for SP vs. SP*? (IP?, GS?) [/quote:719a250205]

Looks like last year was 200 innings or 32 starts for an SP*

[quote:719a250205]2. Are there any numbers to help predict defensive ratings? [/quote:719a250205]

There are a couple that you can find on ESPN but Stratomatic also uses scouting and not just #'s. Gold gloves typically get a 1 with a few exceptions. (Abreu a couple of years ago.)

[quote:719a250205]3. Does anyone of a site that shows complex statistics like BA w/RISP and 2 outs (i.e. the $ symbol on someone's card)? [/quote:719a250205]

BA w/RISP has nothing to do with clutch ratings. Clutch in strat is used as an RBI modifier. IE. players with low AB's but high RBI counts will have higher clutch ratings. Helps the people who replay seasons get truer #'s.
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Postby RICHARDMILTER » Sun Oct 05, 2008 5:18 am

They absolutely use scouting when it comes to a fielder's range ratings. Gold Gloves do not always get 1s. Derick Jeter is an example of this. I believe it harder to get a 1 from Strat, than to get a Gold Glove...... at certain positions. The Gold Glove has become more of a popularity contest(somewhat over the last few decades).

As far as a player being rated at a position, I know they do not have to play many innings at a position to be rated for play in the SOM game. But some of it may depend on the player's past history, and the difficulty of the position. You can look at the MLB website and see how many innings a player appeared at a position, under the particular players defensive stats profile. But SOM does not just use raw numbers for range ratings. I know this because I have read this in the past.

As far as which pitcher's get the SP*, I have no idea, but I am sure my main man CC Sabathia will get the SP*(but that is rather obvious). And any pitcher who may have pitched on three games rest during the regular season. SOM's scouts pour over every detail. Wouldn't that be a fun job? 8-)
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Postby the splinter » Sun Oct 05, 2008 8:18 am

2 seasons or so ago A-Rod played 2 full games at SS and 1 partial game and was given a 2e8 rating

[quote:70ebf2ae02]5. Any way to predict who will or will not have lots of #s (i.e. bpHRs)? [/quote:70ebf2ae02]

alot of this depends on the players home park and his home vs. road HR ratio
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