Great Card/ High Injury Risk

[RICHARDMILTER]

Every year there are some great cards(players) with huge injury risks. Milton Bradley is usually on that list. Has anyone ever done a study on how many ABs, or games you can expect out of a 1,2,3,4,5,or 6 rated injury guy?

For instance; Rafeal Furcal played in 36 games(in real life) but I am expecting to see about 300,...or more ABs out of him in my league. I hope it is not more than that,......simply because I do not have him.

This may be the one area Strat does not get right. I think Furcal will be able to play in a lot more games than in real life. Even if he gets 300 plus AB, that will be more than double his real total.

I am not complaining. I am just commenting, and seeking the opinions of others here at this forum. Thanks for any responses, and good luck and have fun!

[geekor]

IT's all luck. I've tried these high injury guys many many times, if you're lucky you win, if you're unlucky you lose. That simple really. Here's my first go at them:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=180740

Alou is my DH, Doumit is my 1B, Fontenot my 2B, Baker/Burke, Dillon/Dobbs platoons, only 3 guys with a 3 game max injury (SS, CF and LF). Have Casey and Callaspo as high BA backups (covering 1B, DH and 2b), and Freel who plays lots of positions to cover the gaps. Even my backups are injury prone, lol

Worried about my pitching staff, but otherwise I like my hitting, when healthy that is.

[RICHARDMILTER]

Geekor,
I do not think you need to worry about your pitching. Especially in that stadium.

[childsmwc]

Furcal will definitely get over 300 PA's. A good rule of thumb for injury players is as follows:

216/(injury factor) = PA's per injury

So we can expect Furcal to get 43 PA's for each injury. So now the question is how many PA's will Furcal miss when injured. If we assume 4.5 PA's per game, he can miss up to 68 PA's for a 15 game injury and almost 0 PA's for a rest of game injury only.

For this purpose lets assume he misses 8 games on average, or 36 PA's per injury.

So Furcal can be expected to play in 43/(43+36)= 54% of all PA's. 4.5 over 162 games is approximately 730 PA's x 54%= 394 PA's.

Now if instead the average games injured is closer to 5 games, then he misses 23 PA's per injury, for a 43/(43+23)= 65% usage or 475 PA's on the season.

Obviously with an high injury player there is alot more risk on where they fall out from season to season, but I expect Furcal to be closer to the 450 PA mark for most seasons and thus a pretty good value.

Bbrool

[LMBombers]

In addition to the number of games missed due to injury you have all those partial games for each injury. If he is injured for 10 games in his first AB of a game he misses 10 games PLUS the remaining 3-4 ABs (maybe 4-5 since he would be at the top of the lineup) for that game too. It looks like you are estimating an injury every 43 ABs which is about every 10 games. What is that......about 7-9 injury occurances during the season? You have to figure the remainder of the game for each occurance. If it happens on the last AB of the game it is no factor. If it is the first AB it would be 3-4 missed ABs NOT counted in the games lost total. I would average it out to an additional 2 ABs per injury occurance which is another 16 or so lost ABs due to injury over and above the full games lost.

[childsmwc]

LMBomber,

Yes if I wanted to get more exact, it would be appropriate to say Furcal will miss on average 8.5 games or some such number to include partial games for when he is injured.

The accuracy of my original 8 game estimate is probably +/- a game, so I didn't bother with the partial game missed since my original estimate isn't that exact.

Bbrool

[RICHARDMILTER]

Thanks for the info and thoughts,....guys.

I believe if Furcal gets 450 PA that is way, way too many, and that it also means he and others like him are worth the money,.....especially in 100, or 200 million dollar leagues.

I will be slightly disappointed if he gets that many PAs. Again,...I do not have him in my first league, but I have gambled on several other lesser risk, injury guys.

Thanks in advance for anymore stats or thoughts on the topic.

[nymets99]

I had Manny Ramirez either last year or the year before when he was able to get injured for 15 games! In the first 40 games he went down twice for 15 so i cut him. It was very unfortunate. if you have luck (i.e. if hal likes you) maybe Furcal wont have a lot of those 15gamers. But me personally will stay away from him.

[RICHARDMILTER]

I am already taking a lot of injury hits after 6 games, but things usually have a way of balancing out. I have had Shin Soo Choo, Aramis Ramirez, Yadier Molina, and someone else(??) all go down. But it is the old risk reward thing. I have a felling Choo is going to blow up some pitchers if he can stay healthy! I planned for injuries by getting better backups.