How Much of This Game is Luck vs. Skill

[RICHARDMILTER]

Strat-O-Matic baseball is a very life like game of MLB what if scenarios. And MLB (and Strat) are microcosm isms of life.

For instance does the most qualified person always get the job,......in any business? Look at Eric Wedge(Indians manager) or former Jets' coach Rich Kotite? I (and many others) could do a better job than those buffoons with half my brain tied behind my back. But will a fanatic sports, and coaching expert like myself ever get a sniff of a MLB or NFL job??? OF COURSE NOT!

Or does the prettiest woman always marry the richest, best looking, most successful guy? Not always! Luck plays a role in EVERY ASPECT OF LIFE! And Strat-O-Matic is no exception.

But some would argue that all LUCK is; .....is when preparation meets opportunity. And of course the trick is; to do the preparation, so you are ready for the opportunity! And in THIS CASE; the preparation is; knowing the cards, from the top rated(and salaried ) players, down to the best bargain backups! And if you take the time to KNOW THE STRAT CARDS LIKE ME, OR ANY OTHER VET, YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE MORE "LUCK" THAN OTHER PLAYERS/GMs.

[Jerlins]

You just can't run sims and expect the results to verify this game is strictly all luck. Ok, so you don't want to call it skill, call it common sense then. You don't draft Santana if you're playing in Citizens, just because he was a stud last year. Nor do you spend 15% of your salary on Pujols in PNC, because he's the best hitter in baseball. The "common sense" parts comes from identifying ideal players for your team, your park, your division, and your league.

You let PBTR, Cristano, DJ, etc. draft and construct the team, and I'll gaurantee you will have a better shot at winning, than having a "unlucky" player draft and construct the team, and having the above mentioned folks run it. As mentioned previously, more skill in the preseason stage, more luck once the games actually begin. Anyone not buying this theory, well, keep playing the way you play, your luck will change :wink:

[Jerlins]

On a side note, when I got invited a few years back to play in the GBBR league, trust me when I tell you the first words out of my mouth were NOT..

"Holy crap, I am playing against 11 of the luckiest players in strat"!!!

[jdmercha]

OK, so let's look at it yet another way.

If you have the CDROM game create a league of 12 teams. Draft one team yourself and have the computer select the other teams. Your team should come in first every time. Over a 162 game schedule, skill will beat out luck every time.

[ClowntimeIsOver]

[quote:94d148fb4e="voovits"] How does one guard against a Tony Gwynn card who on average is supposed to hit between .325-.330 (as per the approximate average based on this test) deal with it when he hits .266? You can't prepare for that. It's poor luck ...[/quote:94d148fb4e]

So in 30 seasons, any player will have one best season and one worst season (and one second-best and second-worst, etc.). There's a 1 in 30 chance of that; which means there's a 29 in 30 chance against it.

So for nine position players, what are the odds of NOT having at least one player with his worst (one in 30) season? It's 29/30 to the 9th power, which is about 74%. In other words, given 9 position players, EVERY MANAGER will average one player having his worst (of 30) seasons 26% of the time. But that also means that EVERYBODY will average one player having his best (of 30) seasons 26% of the time. Those are the "fat ends" of the bell curve. It is to be taken for granted -- it's not luck. You "prepare" for that by having enough strength among that majority of players who play near their average. I'm not saying I'm good at it, but the point is, big deviations are natural to statistics, and in the long run they cancel each other out and you're left with skill, not luck.

(BTW, if you add in 4 starters, 3 relievers, and one platoon, giving 17 important players, 44% of the time -- 4 teams out of 9 -- one of those 17 will have his worst-of-30 seasons.)

[voovits]

[quote:a651b84744="wachovia07"]
So for nine position players, what are the odds of NOT having at least one player with his worst (one in 30) season? It's 29/30 to the 9th power, which is about 74%. In other words, given 9 position players, EVERY MANAGER will average one player having his worst (of 30) seasons 26% of the time. But that also means that EVERYBODY will average one player having his best (of 30) seasons 26% of the time. Those are the "fat ends" of the bell curve. It is to be taken for granted -- it's not luck. You "prepare" for that by having enough strength among that majority of players who play near their average. I'm not saying I'm good at it, but the point is, big deviations are natural to statistics, and in the long run they cancel each other out and you're left with skill, not luck.[/quote:a651b84744]

That is an angle which I didn't think of and you make a great point. For every underperforming player you have, another team will likely have one. Likewise, you'll likely have an overperforming player.
However the chance is there that you could get royally screwed and hit a very unlucky streak but I do admit that is the exception rather than the rule.

I am not arguing that skill isn't a factor here. I have only played ATG4 2 times and have only played 200x games 1 time, so I guarantee that if you put me in a league with the seasoned vets of the game I'd probably get destroyed (I'd say the opposite applies to the mystery card games, but I'm in a mystery league that has a lot of newbies in it and somehow I'm in last place). I do however play the CDROM game religiously and feel that would give me an edge over someone who does not play the game.

There are a lot of factors that influence the final result. I guess the main purpose of my study is to show how much of a potential difference you can have if you have equally skilled managers battle it out under an even playing field.

[SGTD]

Is knowing the loopholes in the game engine Skill or Luck? In one league RP Kuo threw 229 Innings and the Started Game 3 of the Title Series when a Starting Pitcher was able to go and Kuo threw a 9 inning Shutout. SGT D

[robert.kosky]

I'm not an expert by any means, but when the competition level goes up, my record gets much worse.

I had a team in ATG IV that won 100 regular season games and the championship, and then in another league with basically the same team, won only 75 games. The reason? The competition was much better. Another reason? The teams I went against in the second league knew how to use platooning very well, and set their pitching staffs up in an extremely effective manner.

So luck does play a role, but knowing how to set up your team, knowing the players, and experience are critical.

[joethejet]

Luck is, of course, a part of the game, but there are ways to win more often or the same managers wouldn't be near the top consistently.

In my experience, comparing actual results to team ratings, there are usually 1-2 teams that do better than "expected" and 1-2 that do worse. Most come in pretty close to what the ratings would expect. Sometimes that because they don't have good match ups in their division however.

That tells me that it has more to do with team make up and the luck of the draft/waivers as with the die rolls.

Yes, yes, teams do under perform what they should do and vice versa, but I think that, in general, guys who know what they are doing and have a system for choosing and matching players are going to do better than guys who don't.

In the end, all you can do is minimize the luck factor by putting as many good (or well matched) players on a team and then hope for the best!

One man's opinion FWIW,

Jet
www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet

[Madigan33]

I think most people are understating the luck factor. I know I have played in many leagues where high-value pitchers, in pitchers parks have a higher WHIP and ERA then in non-pitchers parks.

In the 2007 game I used A-Rod tiwce and the first time he had an OPS of .750 and the second time .820.