The secret to success
by voovits » Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:26 pm
[quote:32885f4e30="ugrant"]
Here's the follow on to the above post: while each individual roll does have a 1/6 chance of rolling a particular column, there is a 5/6 chance that a follow-on roll will [b:32885f4e30]not [/b:32885f4e30]be the same column.[/quote:32885f4e30]
This makes no sense at all. Even if you want to go by that statement, there is still a 4/5 chance that you still have the wrong column. And that's only on the 5/6 chance that you hit one of the 5 columns in the first place. Regardless, the odds work out the same.
Coyote is 100% right. Each new result is independent of any past result. Every roll gives you a 1/6 chance of hitting the best column.
When making your lineups, go by the percentages of the player, not by their best column.
Here's the follow on to the above post: while each individual roll does have a 1/6 chance of rolling a particular column, there is a 5/6 chance that a follow-on roll will [b:32885f4e30]not [/b:32885f4e30]be the same column.[/quote:32885f4e30]
This makes no sense at all. Even if you want to go by that statement, there is still a 4/5 chance that you still have the wrong column. And that's only on the 5/6 chance that you hit one of the 5 columns in the first place. Regardless, the odds work out the same.
Coyote is 100% right. Each new result is independent of any past result. Every roll gives you a 1/6 chance of hitting the best column.
When making your lineups, go by the percentages of the player, not by their best column.
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by coyote303 » Fri Sep 04, 2009 12:22 am
[quote:baafbff891="ugrant"]
Here's the follow on to the above post: while each individual roll does have a 1/6 chance of rolling a particular column, there is a 5/6 chance that a follow-on roll will [b:baafbff891]not [/b:baafbff891]be the same column.
If that 5/6 probability occurs (and with live dice it will 5/6 of the time), isn't it better to cover one (or two if it's a good hitter) of the other columns?
This subject got very heated the last time it was debated.[/quote:baafbff891]
Most of the discussion on these boards is opinion--there is usually no right or wrong and there is plenty of gray. However, this topic is very clear cut.
You are correct that you have 5/6 chance that a followup roll will not be the same column. However, you also have a 5/6 chance on [i:baafbff891]any[/i:baafbff891] roll that you won't get the column you want regardless if it was just rolled.
Also, if you have a 100 percent chance to get a good result in column 1 versus a 50 percent chance to get a good result in both column 2 and column 3, the odds are the same: 1/6 chance to get a good result off the batter's card.
If you want to believe having diverse and mixed columns are a good thing to have, go ahead. However, you will be basing your decision on superstition and not on mathematics nor reality.
Here's the follow on to the above post: while each individual roll does have a 1/6 chance of rolling a particular column, there is a 5/6 chance that a follow-on roll will [b:baafbff891]not [/b:baafbff891]be the same column.
If that 5/6 probability occurs (and with live dice it will 5/6 of the time), isn't it better to cover one (or two if it's a good hitter) of the other columns?
This subject got very heated the last time it was debated.[/quote:baafbff891]
Most of the discussion on these boards is opinion--there is usually no right or wrong and there is plenty of gray. However, this topic is very clear cut.
You are correct that you have 5/6 chance that a followup roll will not be the same column. However, you also have a 5/6 chance on [i:baafbff891]any[/i:baafbff891] roll that you won't get the column you want regardless if it was just rolled.
Also, if you have a 100 percent chance to get a good result in column 1 versus a 50 percent chance to get a good result in both column 2 and column 3, the odds are the same: 1/6 chance to get a good result off the batter's card.
If you want to believe having diverse and mixed columns are a good thing to have, go ahead. However, you will be basing your decision on superstition and not on mathematics nor reality.
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by RICHARDMILTER » Fri Sep 04, 2009 1:05 am
Coyote is right on the money. Math is a science, and this topic is based 100% in superstition! I could care less if every player on my whole team was a 1 column hitter, it just does not matter. Total chances matter, nothing more.
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by Jerlins » Fri Sep 04, 2009 2:42 am
I've read many a strategy, some which I've agreed with, others, not so much. Often, if I felt one's strategy has arguable points, I've offered my opinion as to why I think it's incorrect. This one, I'm speechless on. :shock: :shock:
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by ugrant » Fri Sep 04, 2009 10:34 am
If this subject was strictly about math, then the hardcore comments about it being "black and white" would make sense and have value. But, it's not. It's about odds. Odds are more flexible, odds are why some professional gamblers are more successful than others.
Strat uses statistical random events determined by dice rolls. That's not math, although math is used as the vehicle to get a random outcome. Using math one can determine what the odds are of getting specific outcomes. Some odds outcomes, obviously, will occur more often than others - and in Strat those odds can be calculated with specificity (and are used as the basis to duplicate the statistics achieved by individual players during a season).
Statistical odds: chance of rolling a specific column in Strat, 1/6 (16.7%). Chance of duplicating that column in the next roll: 1/6. Chance of rolling some other column, 5/6 (83.3%).
There is an 83.3% chance the follow on roll will not be in the same column, that's the odds (determined by math). The manager who uses same column hitters has only a 16.7% chance of getting a favorable outcome, while the manager who varies the columns of his hitters has a 83.3% chance he'll get a 4/5 (20%) chance of getting a column in his favor. Small, but over the course of a season the odds are favorable it will occur enough to make a difference in his favor.
If Rmilter wants to field a lineup of entirely 1 column hitters, I want to be in his division. The odds are his team will have difficulties sustaining rallys, since there is only a 16.7% chance each roll will duplicate the best column of his hitters and a 83.3% chance each roll won't. That's odds, using math.
But then, I've just been accused of being superstitious. Maybe I should just dig out my old rabbit's foot and keep putting my shoes on the same way every day...
Strat uses statistical random events determined by dice rolls. That's not math, although math is used as the vehicle to get a random outcome. Using math one can determine what the odds are of getting specific outcomes. Some odds outcomes, obviously, will occur more often than others - and in Strat those odds can be calculated with specificity (and are used as the basis to duplicate the statistics achieved by individual players during a season).
Statistical odds: chance of rolling a specific column in Strat, 1/6 (16.7%). Chance of duplicating that column in the next roll: 1/6. Chance of rolling some other column, 5/6 (83.3%).
There is an 83.3% chance the follow on roll will not be in the same column, that's the odds (determined by math). The manager who uses same column hitters has only a 16.7% chance of getting a favorable outcome, while the manager who varies the columns of his hitters has a 83.3% chance he'll get a 4/5 (20%) chance of getting a column in his favor. Small, but over the course of a season the odds are favorable it will occur enough to make a difference in his favor.
If Rmilter wants to field a lineup of entirely 1 column hitters, I want to be in his division. The odds are his team will have difficulties sustaining rallys, since there is only a 16.7% chance each roll will duplicate the best column of his hitters and a 83.3% chance each roll won't. That's odds, using math.
But then, I've just been accused of being superstitious. Maybe I should just dig out my old rabbit's foot and keep putting my shoes on the same way every day...
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by keyzick » Fri Sep 04, 2009 10:56 am
[quote:e72f3818e5="DeanTSC"][quote:e72f3818e5]the manager who varies the columns of his hitters has a 83.3% chance he'll get a 4/5 (20%) chance of getting a column in his favor. [/quote:e72f3818e5]What?[/quote:e72f3818e5]
LOL!!
[quote:e72f3818e5="ugrant"][quote:e72f3818e5]If Rmilter wants to field a lineup of entirely 1 column hitters, I want to be in his division. [/quote:e72f3818e5][/quote:e72f3818e5]
Well, at least you'd be on a level playing field, since both your chances would be identical.
LOL!!
[quote:e72f3818e5="ugrant"][quote:e72f3818e5]If Rmilter wants to field a lineup of entirely 1 column hitters, I want to be in his division. [/quote:e72f3818e5][/quote:e72f3818e5]
Well, at least you'd be on a level playing field, since both your chances would be identical.
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by coyote303 » Fri Sep 04, 2009 11:13 am
[quote:d8b782d431="ugrant"]
Statistical odds: chance of rolling a specific column in Strat, 1/6 (16.7%). Chance of duplicating that column in the next roll: 1/6. Chance of rolling some other column, 5/6 (83.3%).
There is an 83.3% chance the follow on roll will not be in the same column, that's the odds (determined by math). The manager who uses same column hitters has only a 16.7% chance of getting a favorable outcome, while the manager who varies the columns of his hitters has a 83.3% chance he'll get a 4/5 (20%) chance of getting a column in his favor. Small, but over the course of a season the odds are favorable it will occur enough to make a difference in his favor.[/quote:d8b782d431]
Manager R has two "1" hitters in a row. First hitter rolls a 1. You are correct. The odds of rolling a second 1 is only 16.7%
Manager U has a "1" hitter followed by a "2" hitter. First hitter rolls a 1. You are saying your next hitter now has an 20 percent chance to get a favorable roll?! Ummmm.....no! He as a 16.7% chance. Dice do not have memory.
Let's look at it mathematically: 5/6 of the time, Manager U will have a 1/5 chance to get a favorable roll. So his odds are not 1/5, but rather 5/6 X 1/5 which equals....surprise!....1/6 (or 16.7%).
[quote:d8b782d431="ugrant"]
But then, I've just been accused of being superstitious. Maybe I should just dig out my old rabbit's foot and keep putting my shoes on the same way every day...[/quote:d8b782d431]
I shouldn't say it, but it would be just as effective if you did! :)
Statistical odds: chance of rolling a specific column in Strat, 1/6 (16.7%). Chance of duplicating that column in the next roll: 1/6. Chance of rolling some other column, 5/6 (83.3%).
There is an 83.3% chance the follow on roll will not be in the same column, that's the odds (determined by math). The manager who uses same column hitters has only a 16.7% chance of getting a favorable outcome, while the manager who varies the columns of his hitters has a 83.3% chance he'll get a 4/5 (20%) chance of getting a column in his favor. Small, but over the course of a season the odds are favorable it will occur enough to make a difference in his favor.[/quote:d8b782d431]
Manager R has two "1" hitters in a row. First hitter rolls a 1. You are correct. The odds of rolling a second 1 is only 16.7%
Manager U has a "1" hitter followed by a "2" hitter. First hitter rolls a 1. You are saying your next hitter now has an 20 percent chance to get a favorable roll?! Ummmm.....no! He as a 16.7% chance. Dice do not have memory.
Let's look at it mathematically: 5/6 of the time, Manager U will have a 1/5 chance to get a favorable roll. So his odds are not 1/5, but rather 5/6 X 1/5 which equals....surprise!....1/6 (or 16.7%).
[quote:d8b782d431="ugrant"]
But then, I've just been accused of being superstitious. Maybe I should just dig out my old rabbit's foot and keep putting my shoes on the same way every day...[/quote:d8b782d431]
I shouldn't say it, but it would be just as effective if you did! :)
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by RICHARDMILTER » Fri Sep 04, 2009 11:58 am
[quote:ed02b53a4a]If Rmilter wants to field a lineup of entirely 1 column hitters, I want to be in his division. The odds are his team will have difficulties sustaining rallys, since there is only a 16.7% chance each roll will duplicate the best column of his hitters and a 83.3% chance each roll won't. That's odds, using math. [/quote:ed02b53a4a]
You want to be in my division? I have started (9) 2008 teams so far this year. Six of those have finished. Five of those have made the playoffs. Of the several thousand GMs who have played at least as many games as me or more, there MAY BE two (and I doubt there are even that many)who have a higher winning percentage. And there are exactly ZERO who have made the playoffs at a higher percentage!
So if you want to start a standard 60, 80, or 100 million dollar league with DH, and challenge me to be in your division, COME ON WITH IT.
It is interesting to see who is weighing in correctly on this subject and who is not. This matter is not up for debate. Coyote, Keyzick, Jerlins, and the other successful veteran GMs are RIGHT ON THE MONEY AS USUAL. And their opponents in this silly argument are just plain superstitious and wrong. I am sorry if that is harsh, but sometime the truth can be harsh.
You want to be in my division? I have started (9) 2008 teams so far this year. Six of those have finished. Five of those have made the playoffs. Of the several thousand GMs who have played at least as many games as me or more, there MAY BE two (and I doubt there are even that many)who have a higher winning percentage. And there are exactly ZERO who have made the playoffs at a higher percentage!
So if you want to start a standard 60, 80, or 100 million dollar league with DH, and challenge me to be in your division, COME ON WITH IT.
It is interesting to see who is weighing in correctly on this subject and who is not. This matter is not up for debate. Coyote, Keyzick, Jerlins, and the other successful veteran GMs are RIGHT ON THE MONEY AS USUAL. And their opponents in this silly argument are just plain superstitious and wrong. I am sorry if that is harsh, but sometime the truth can be harsh.
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