Final Data: Top 25 Starting Pitchers predicted for next year

[maligned]

Here is the final data on this string I've been running. These are the pitchers I will predict as the Top 25 starters for next year. I base this prediction on each pitcher's raw data (a stat called 'composite ERA'), adjusted for stadium, quality of league, and quality of defense on each pitcher's team. Values were then adjusted to consider endurance (e.g. S7) and star* or no-star. Here are the final results after last night's final game:

1 Zack Greinke S7*
2 Tim Lincecum S7*
3 Dan Haren S7*
4 Javier Vazquez S7*
5 Felix Hernandez S7*
6 Josh Johnson S7*
7 Chris Carpenter S7
8 Ubaldo Jimenez S7*
9 CC Sabathia S7*
10 Justin Verlander S7*
11 Roy Halladay S7*
12 Josh Beckett S7*
13 Matt Cain S7*
14 Joel Pineiro S7*
15 Jair Jurrjens S7*
16 Adam Wainwright S7*
17 Jake Peavy S7
18 Jon Lester S6*
19 Ted Lilly S6
20 Scott Baker S6*
21 Robinson Tejeda S5
22 Randy Wolf S6*
23 Josh Outman S6
24 Gavin Floyd S7
25 Ryan Rowland-Smith S7

Again, these are just predictions. A couple of factors will alter the order of these pitchers:
A. I based team defensive strength on real-life defensive efficiency stats. HAL assigns defensive ratings very subjectively.
B. I considered stadium data from this year only. HAL considers 3 years of data. Also, I adjusted ERC values based on overall park runs-scored factors, not HR and Single data only.
C. I did not adjust pitchers' values considering success vs. lefties/righties. Some pitchers by chance faced more lefties than average and others faced more righties than average. This will effect final ratings of Strat cards.

Whatever the case, I was just trying to get a picture of what to expect. Others may have lists that go another route with their theories. I always appreciate any comments or discussion.

[Detroit-Tigers]

Where did phil hughes end up? Just a reliever?

[AeroDave10]

I still don't see how Carpenter will be only #7, Wainwright #16, and Tejeda #21. Carpenter and Wainwright should be higher and Tejeda WAY lower. I'm curious about Phil Hughes, too, since he had 7 starts, which is more than Tejeda.

Where are:

Clayton Kershaw
Hiroki Kuroda
Tommy Hanson
Johan Santana

:?

[kimkrichbaum2]

I'm interested about Scott Feldman also.

I really appreciate you doing this. Do you think it is possible for this last rating if you could do the top 50 or even 75?

[maligned]

Aero,
Carpenter has the third best raw data when adjusted for his very pitcher-friendly environment. But, because he will not get a star, his value is only 80% of what it would be otherwise. This moves him down the list. Look at Rich Harden in the 2008 set for another example of this situation. No one comes remotely close to the strength of his card...but the value decreases significantly when you have no star (and an S6 in Harden's case).
Wainwright far outperformed his raw data. PLUS he pitches in the same pitcher-friendly environment as Carpenter...which will hurt his card strength significantly.
Tejeda very simply has very, very strong raw data. Plus Kauffman was very hitter friendly and the Royals had bad defense. All of this equates to a strong Strat card. It doesn't matter that he only pitched 70-some innings and will never be a good real-life pitcher.

Phil Hughes will be an S5/R3. He finished just outside my Top 25. His raw data is very strong. As an S7, he'd be #15; as an S6, he'd be #21. The S5 will hurt his value.

Kershaw: S6, no star, pitcher-friendly park, very strong defense, NL competition...ranked #27
Kuroda: exact same details as Kershaw...ranked #43
Hanson: S6, no star, pitcher-friendly park, NL...#37
Santana: no star, bad raw data (3.40 ERC), slightly pitcher friendly park, NL...#39

Feldman: S6, no star, bad raw data...high forties/low fifties rank

[kimkrichbaum2]

Bump, I want this to stay on the first page!

[JMP1]

How about posting the next 25?

[schnoogens]

Tejeda's card will be very interesting. Probably a 8R or so, and lots of Walks (and nothing else) vs L's. No SLG against him from either side.

[Jerlins]

Bump :)

I want this close to the top when the cards come out, out of curiosity of its accuracy. If I were a betting man (and I am), my money is on this being a top-notch analysis. Great job and interesting reading (along with your other thread regarding this final post) Maligned. Thank you for the time and effort.

[Detroit-Tigers]

1 Tim Lincecum S7*
2 Zack Greinke S7*
3 Dan Haren S7*
4 Josh Johnson S7*
5 Felix Hernandez S7*
6 Javier Vazquez S7*
7 Chris Carpenter S7

Top 7 a little out of order...