The Secret Formula 2009

[Jerlins]

As for me, I haven't played a whole lot this year. I'm guessing 50% of my teams have been PNC this year, a couple more pitchers parks, and a few hitters parks. Two of the PNC leagues are in a keeper league, where I somewhat sacrificed this year for a very strong future. My worst (and it was REAL bad), came from a Cell team. My two best teams, with 98 and 97 wins, both came from PNC teams. Presently, I'm trying a RH'd park this go round with Camden.

I seem to have more success with slanted parks on the whole. I'm guessing the success comes from the advantages I can use with the ballpark quirks, as opposed to playing on an even field vs opponents in a neutral one. My only worry is missing the draft when opting for these types of parks. It's difficult putting together a PNC team if you miss your base players.

[keyzick]

[quote:e28c74351b="Jerlins"] My only worry is missing the draft when opting for these types of parks. It's difficult putting together a PNC team if you miss your base players.[/quote:e28c74351b]

I tend to worry more about my pitchers in PNC, then apply The Wildcat (aka, The Costanza) if I miss on too many lefty hitters. The right staff in PNC seems to be able to be able to cover up a lot of hitting blemishes.

[Knerrpool]

This is great information. Thank you. Is there an easy way to read your previous secret formula posts? Perhaps post the links? Also, you mention (somewhere) the value of the ratings book - can you buy previous season ratings data? Thanks.

[stevep107]

J-Pav:

Thanks for putting together the latest installment of the Secret Formula. I felt honored to be asked to be one of the contributors.

I haven't played as much strato this year as in the past. It seems to be getting more difficult to win consistently. Your post has given me some new ideas. Many thanks.

Kind regards,
SP

[J-Pav]

[b:3de3739959]Knerrpool[/b:3de3739959]:

I did link last year's post - it's in red under hitting (just under stevep's quote).

Can somebody post the link to the ratings book and disc? I get it every year, so I just re-order from that. The link is on here somewhere though.

[J-Pav]

That might be it on the active teams page, under the drop down tab called "The Store".



[b:4c9428a8f6]Steve[/b:4c9428a8f6]:

You're welcome!

[AeroDave10]

[quote:286bb106b7="J-Pav"]

I really think the parks matter less than they ever have. [/quote:286bb106b7]

I disagree based on the parks you listed. Those may not matter because they are somewhat similar to one another, but none are really HR stadiums.

I do agree, however, that the more you play, the more you experiment. Sometimes I feel HR happy, and sometimes I don't. Once I make that decision, then I start down my path of destruction :)

[MARCPELLETIER]

About the importance of middle defense

Back in the good old days, strong middle infielders were the best deals simply because it took a long time before TSN correctly assess the value of turning a double-play.

Those days are over. In fact, I even suspect that TSN has gone over the board and are perhaps pricing middle defense too high. In any case, 3-rated players appear to me as the best values in the infield (outfield is another entire subject)

(Two side notes here: First, if we forget about the dh role for a second, the best values in 2008 are without a doubt injury-prone players who can play reasonnably well the field. They are challenging, and they need a careful use of the bench, but in the right environment, their value outgrow their price tags. Hence, a player like Hudson, "despite" his 1-rating at 2b, is a good investment. Furcal, with his 2-rating and his injury at "5", is even a better one.

Second, if defense is overrated, why then is it 3-rated middle infielders that seem like the best values, and not 4-rated? Because 4-rated middle infielders are priced according to their playing as a dh, and not the field. There is a line where players are better values at dh rather than playing the field, and 4-rated middle infielders have clearly crossed that line. I don't know where is the line, but I suspect that it is very close to the middle point of the defensive chart for each position. The middle point of the chart for ss is 3e24, and for 2b, it is 3e21.)

I have several teams that perform well (close to or over 90 wins) with Kinsler playing second base or Ramirez playing ss (both are 3e24). Actually, I have one team with both of them, and it is by far the best performing team so far, despite playing in a very tough division, I should add:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=227372


This team is a good example of what durantjerry explains in the original post. The bad defensive ratings is offset by a very strong pitching squad, by playing in a stadium that minimizes singles---thus minimizing the need of turning double-plays---, and by playing in a non-dh league. The team's ERA (3.24) is surely an indication that the defensive vulnerability in the middle infield has not hurt the team too much.

In an anotherly different environment, this team struggles a little bit (72-57) but still holds the wild card spot as I write this:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=212860

This team has no pitching, plays in a relatively offense-oriented park (neutral in singles, very high in homeruns), and plays in a dh environment. The team's ERA, 5.02, is indicative that a strong middle defense could probably help, here.

So, in brief, I believe that 3-rated middle infielders can be very good deals, but as durantjerry explains, they need to be employed in their best environment to become very good deals.

[childsmwc]

J-Pav,

I was interested to see that for 2008, a variety of parks allowed for winning strategies, I know one of the goals this season was to price the set so that playing in a neutral park could be a winning strategy. In prior years, I believe playing in an extreme park (hitter or pitcher park) created the value required to win. This season some tweaks were made to reduce this value and give the neutral park hitters a chance to be successful as well.

Luckyman aka Marcus Wilby-

Defensive players are no longer capped in pricing for the DH (so in theory the worst defenders are the best values at DH). Every player if priced accurately should be able to produce a net run value (offense/defense) appropriate for his price tag. However, there is an assumption that a certain % of a poor defenders plays will be made by a defensive replacement late in the game, which "improves" a poor defenders value. If an owner does not use defensive replacements for these poor defenders then yes they would be a worse value.

Very good guide.

[MARCPELLETIER]

Thanks bbrool for correcting me. Somewhat, this passed under my radar, but you're right, when I look at the 4-rated middle infielders, they show up pretty much on average, in terms of value per dollars, as 3-rated. I even have Arias making the top 3 best values.

So readers should forget about the second "side note" of my previous post.