Secret Formula: The Theory in Action

[elpasopesos]

There is no secret formula. It is like a pyramid scheme... what if all 12 teams followed the secret formula... twelve champions? I have been successful with a number of different combinations. It would make a huge difference for example if Furcal played 150 vs 110 games. You just can't predict that. It is best to build a team you like that is fundamentally sound across the board follow a strategy and cross your fingers and pray to HAL.

[J-Pav]

[quote:ed5fae886e="elpasopesos"]There is no secret formula. [/quote:ed5fae886e]

If you go back to the first [i:ed5fae886e]TSF[/i:ed5fae886e] posts several years ago, you'd understand that the phrase "[i:ed5fae886e]The Secret Formula[/i:ed5fae886e]" is intended to be tongue in cheek; however, having said that, I believe success leaves clues. The combination of clues which I found is the reason I wrote the post in the first place.

[quote:ed5fae886e="elpasopesos"]It is like a pyramid scheme... what if all 12 teams followed the secret formula... twelve champions?[/quote:ed5fae886e]

Not sure what you mean by pyramid scheme - when all twelve teams follow [i:ed5fae886e]The Secret Formula[/i:ed5fae886e], generally what you get is a bell curve for records falling to either side of .500. Most/many tour leagues look like this.

Here's the other thing: many people post wonderful Championship teams after the fact. But no one tells you how they're going to win those rings [i:ed5fae886e]before the season starts.[/i:ed5fae886e]

What if everyone got to "call their shot" only one time per season? I imagine in any given year you would have some veteran managers looking pretty silly and some newbie managers looking pretty smart. But over time, the records would eventually just parallel the managers' overall winning percentage. Good managers are good managers for a reason.

Personally, here's my line eating my own cooking:

TSF 2008: 87-75 (lost finals)
TSF 2007: 78-84 (missed playoffs)
TSF 2006: 88-74 (lost semis)
TSF 2005: 100-62 (lost semis)

Overall record: 353-295 (.545 win pct), which isn't too bad. Since my [i:ed5fae886e]overall[/i:ed5fae886e] overall win pct is .533, I'm probably due for some downside pressure to my average (which I'm definitely getting this season).

[quote:ed5fae886e="elpasopesos"]I have been successful with a number of different combinations.[/quote:ed5fae886e]

What combination was not one of the three I outlined? Draft a team, post your theory before opening day, and we'll see how it goes.

[quote:ed5fae886e="elpasopesos"]It would make a huge difference for example if Furcal played 150 vs 110 games. You just can't predict that. [/quote:ed5fae886e]

This is always true no matter what kind of team you build. "Prediction" is just another word for "probabilities". You [i:ed5fae886e]can[/i:ed5fae886e] have an idea of how that [i:ed5fae886e]should[/i:ed5fae886e] work out beforehand.

[quote:ed5fae886e="elpasopesos"]It is best to build a team you like that is fundamentally sound across the board follow a strategy and cross your fingers and pray to HAL.[/quote:ed5fae886e]

What part of fundamentally sound is not addressed here? Heck, I even covered pray to HAL! [i:ed5fae886e]The Secret Formula[/i:ed5fae886e] is really just another way of saying "fundamentally sound":

1. Pitching
2. Hitting
3. Middle Defense
4. Net Runs
5. Ballpark selection
6. Worship HAL


[i:ed5fae886e]** Now, after a hot streak, we have to re-visit this post and of course I get swept. Please, no more posts to this thread until after the season!!!**[/i:ed5fae886e]

:D

[daniel_j]

Since this thread is looking at park factors, team construction, etc., I thought it would be a good place to discuss the following:

Does strat online account for the ballparks in which a player's stats were accumulated? Is a 2008 Red, for example, who slugged .500 in a great HR ballpark play as a .460 (or whatever) SLG in a neutral park in online play?

Also, is the game sensitive to GB/FB tendencies for pitchers and hitters?

One final dumb question: As a first-time player, I'm a little unsure how to value the defensive ratings. Is swapping out a 2B with a 2- rating with a 4- rating guy a huge deal in game play, as it might be in real life?

Thanks.

[J-Pav]

[quote:25d6adb3a1="daniel_j"]Does strat online account for the ballparks in which a player's stats were accumulated? Is a 2008 Red, for example, who slugged .500 in a great HR ballpark play as a .460 (or whatever) SLG in a neutral park in online play?[/quote:25d6adb3a1]

Yes. The hitters are all ballpark adjusted.

[quote:25d6adb3a1="daniel_j"]Also, is the game sensitive to GB/FB tendencies for pitchers and hitters?[/quote:25d6adb3a1]

Yes.

[quote:25d6adb3a1="daniel_j"]One final dumb question: As a first-time player, I'm a little unsure how to value the defensive ratings. Is swapping out a 2B with a 2- rating with a 4- rating guy a huge deal in game play, as it might be in real life?[/quote:25d6adb3a1]

Yes, especially in a 12 team league where everyone is using 1s and 2s for the most part at the key defensive positions.

[daniel_j]

Thanks for the feedback, J-Pav!

[elpasopesos]

I just want to clarify a few points. One I do believe that there is a logic to your way of forming a team; that by no means precludes that there can't be lots of other ways to be successful. I am not saying your idea won't be successful; i just take exception to the sub text of your "secret formula"; that is to say, that yours is the only way. If you didn't mean to imply that I offer my most humble and sincere apologies. I would be an idiot if I didn't recognize your success. My good friend Jerlins and I have had these discussions about how you can change strategies but they must be sound ones. I play strato not only to win, but to build a team try a strategy and see what happens. I only play one team at a time so I don't try to just build up my score. I play because I love stratomatic baseball.
However I would become quite bored if everyone tried the same strategy in the same league. I love the difference between a hitters park and a pitchers park. If there are two pp in my division I have to modify my strategy some I will be playing 24 games in them.
J-Pav I wish you all the success you can attain.

[J-Pav]

Well, you made me post again, which means I lost another series! :P

Many years ago we had a round and round about the whole "Secret Formula" thing. First of all, it's not a secret. I've laid this out every year for six years. Almost every year I write it, within a day there's another post in SOM Online something to the effect of "should I play a 4 at 2B?" or "who's the better 1Bman, Pujols or Giambi?" Everyone wants help with their team, but they want a specific answer without understanding the additional problems an answer creates.

A few years back, I needed one team to overperform to make a tour Final 12 (I actually finished at 13th, which [i:df28c915a9]really[/i:df28c915a9] blows when only the top 12 made it). I grabbed the rosters of all the best performing tour teams for the $80 mil DH format. I had teams from [b:df28c915a9]luckyman[/b:df28c915a9], [b:df28c915a9]cristano[/b:df28c915a9], [b:df28c915a9]Riggo[/b:df28c915a9], [b:df28c915a9]spicki[/b:df28c915a9] and a few others that all won 95 or more games in a tour season. It literally jumped off the page at me - virtually every team had hitting salaries of 9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2, but nobody used the same players. The thought I had was, "heck, just fill in the blanks at $9________, $8________, etc."

[i:df28c915a9]Voila[/i:df28c915a9]. Salary structure.

Add in the basic veteran fundamentals and you really have something.

Then the question became, should I just keep this to myself? I have learned too much from the other veterans in the community not to give a little something back, so I decided to share it. It's really not a big deal, because everyone has their own core ideas anyway.

Now, about my way being the only way...

No one really wants to copy it, because it's like admitting you didn't win it on your own if you do. But if you ignore it, you are ignoring all the quantifiable evidence presently shared by Championship teams. It puts other managers in an awkward spot. So I try to dismiss this as newbie advice, so as not to offend. Heck, most of the time I don't even follow it myself (I play too many teams to do the same thing over and over). But, truth be told, I would probably [i:df28c915a9]win more[/i:df28c915a9] if I did.

For me personally, there's more fun in the thinking than the doing. So my way being the only way misses the point. Right now I'm fooling around with a long reliever theory that has me using Cesar Jimenez in the pen. I have not seen this guy used on one team all year, and now I can't believe it took me so long to find him myself! For me, this is where the fun is now. Like the guy posting about how much he likes Brian Wilson as a closer. One more ring really doesn't matter at this point. But one more idea keeps me coming back... :D

[elpasopesos]

And this team I am currently playing I went with an all star starting 4 Haladay, Lee, Sabathia, and Sheets with just one reliever over 1 million Jenks the team was sluggish at first but I stuck with it (for Newbies: dropping players should be avoided my personal policy is never lose more than 500 k) and now they are 72-57 6 gamers back and 6 games up in the wild card. Lat night Haladay had a perfect game with two out in the ninth gave up 2 hits and finsished with a two hit shutout.

[keyzick]

Hey J-Pav...Congrats on this team finally taking over first place! I know they don't have the record you'd expect right now, but I was glad to see you move into first after some of the heat people having been puttin' on you for this team. And besides, you know HAL loves an underdog in the playoffs!! :)

I've somehow been leading wire to wire in my division, despite a negative run variance... :shock: