Secret Formula: The Theory in Action

[J-Pav]

[size=24:a42fad91ab]Congratulations to [b:a42fad91ab]keyzick[/b:a42fad91ab]'s team [i:a42fad91ab]Bowling for Drinks[/i:a42fad91ab], for taking the ring. [/size:a42fad91ab]

Just a few random thoughts to close this thread out...

What a strange league this was. [b:a42fad91ab]keyzick[/b:a42fad91ab] wins the whole thing despite a negative 54 run differential (76-86 expected record). Out of the eight teams in the West and the East, only [i:a42fad91ab]Secret Formula[/i:a42fad91ab] had an expected record above .500. In the Central, [i:a42fad91ab]all four teams[/i:a42fad91ab] were above .500!

In the lucky dice category known as one run games, only four teams had above .500 records and [i:a42fad91ab]all four[/i:a42fad91ab] (all veterans) made the playoffs ([b:a42fad91ab]keyzick, stevep, durantjerry[/b:a42fad91ab] and [b:a42fad91ab]me[/b:a42fad91ab]).

As for the [i:a42fad91ab]Secret Formula[/i:a42fad91ab], I'm still trying to figure things out: was I the team that started the season 32-49? or was I the team that erased a 17 games below .500 record to finish the second half 49-32 and win the division? After getting run over by [b:a42fad91ab]stevep[/b:a42fad91ab] (for the second time in four years, thx Steve) it looks like the former.

With the 81-81 finish, my five year win pct dropped from .545 to .536, which is right near my total SOM overall win pct. Four playoff appearances in five years isn't too bad, though. Still looking for that ring, however...

In hindsight everything looks different, but if I could go back and make one change I would've changed my bullpen. I'd much rather have had a Rivera, Soria or Balfour superreliever, than the Wagner/Johnson combo. I wanted to stick to the formula here, but personally my own better teams utilize the high dollar closer. Still, I managed to go 23-21 in one run games w/ the set-up I had, so who's to say things would've turned out any differently?

Here's a re-cap:


[quote:a42fad91ab="J-Pav"]IV. Score Runs And Do Not Allow Runs

For grins, I averaged out the runs scored of my players in each of their last five seasons to kind of give myself a general idea of what I might expect from my offense. It's not an exact science, obviously, but it forecasts that in a vanilla season, I could probably see about 768 runs scored. Remember: The Three Stud Starters teams average around 742 runs scored, or 4.58 per game. They surrender a 3.79 ERA for a net runs advantage of about 0.79 runs per game. Hopefully, I'll be in this vicinity if things go according to plan.[/quote:a42fad91ab]

Well, I scored 763 runs. That's pretty close to 768! 4.71 runs per game is usually enough. In this league, five teams scored over 800 runs, which you don't see happen too often.

So, Formula ended up 6th in offense overall.

With all that offense, pitching paid the price and unfortunately we were not immune. The 4.29 ERA, 1.46 WHIP were awful. Still, we ended up 5th overall in pitching.

[quote:a42fad91ab="J-Pav"]V. Ballparks And Players Suited To Those Parks

I actually mapped out the Average Ballpark I'll be facing over all 162 games. It follows very closely my home ballpark of PNC (12-12-7-1) and comes out at (11-11-8-5) over my entire season. This works for me, as I'll be starting three "weak home run power" players in the line-up. That is, my lack of power should not hamper me so much on the road, as my team is designed for most all pitcher's parks (good speed, solid defense, reliable hitting). Visiting teams designed for power will find it much harder to score in PNC.[/quote:a42fad91ab]

.291 BA/.358 OBP/.428 SLG at home w/ [b:a42fad91ab][color=green:a42fad91ab]3.57 ERA/1.40 WHIP[/color:a42fad91ab][/b:a42fad91ab], for a home record of 45-36. On the road, .279 BA/.343 OBP/.428 SLG w/ a [b:a42fad91ab][color=red:a42fad91ab]5.06 ERA/1.52 WHIP[/color:a42fad91ab][/b:a42fad91ab] for a road record of 36-45. My pitchers definitely hated to travel.

[quote:a42fad91ab="J-Pav"]VI. Intangibles and HAL

1. My injury prone infield is susceptible to causing me some frustrations.[/quote:a42fad91ab]

Hudson and Furcal were hurt quite a bit, often at the same time. Not that it wasn't to be expected - but the timeliness was often a factor, so no good kharma here.

[quote:a42fad91ab="J-Pav"]2. Two division rivals have hitter's parks.[/quote:a42fad91ab]

Went 18-6 against the Cell team, 16-8 against the Juicebox team and 13-11 against the Fenway team.

[quote:a42fad91ab="J-Pav"]3. I'm lacking in Home Run power.[/quote:a42fad91ab]

I finished 8th in HRs, no surprise there.

[quote:a42fad91ab="J-Pav"]4. HAL [i:a42fad91ab]absolutely hates[/i:a42fad91ab] pre-season posts like this (peace be upon Him).[/quote:a42fad91ab]

This is an understatement.

This from HAL: [i:a42fad91ab]"You will lose 16 of 19 in one stretch and then lose 18 of 23 two weeks later (that's an 8-34 record right there). But I'll let you make the playoffs anyway, because I am merciful."
[/i:a42fad91ab]
[quote:a42fad91ab="J-Pav"]5. Lowe, Dempster and Saunders are double-play factories (plus very strong ranges at 2B, SS and 3B).[/quote:a42fad91ab]

Led the league w/ 205 double plays, versus a league average of 161. Unfortunately, double plays are also the result of plenty of baserunners. Still, in a mostly pitcher's park environment, this is a good thing.

[quote:a42fad91ab="J-Pav"]6. Mauer's arm at C, Victorino's arm in CF, Guillen's arm in RF (vs. LHP).[/quote:a42fad91ab]

3 passed balls, 42 opp stolen bases, 24 opp caught stealing (.636 OSB%). No other team was even close here. Mauer was a monster all the way around.

Not a lot of outfield assists, because there's not a lot of running against Victorino. One of those things that you pretty much take for granted, but in reality, there was probably some impact here.

[quote:a42fad91ab="J-Pav"]7. Good team speed (both baserunning and stealing), with Pierre to pinch run.[/quote:a42fad91ab]

210 stolen bases, 2nd to [b:a42fad91ab]Aray[/b:a42fad91ab]'s 220.


*****************


Well, I spent most of the season at the wheel of the clown car, driving in circles and wiping pie out my eyes. Hopefully a few of you enjoyed my annual [i:a42fad91ab]Hey-mom-look-at-me![/i:a42fad91ab]self-aggrandizing stunt and came away with a new idea or two to try in the seasons ahead. Best of luck to everybody.

:D

[chasenally]

bump :)