I'm in a 20% drop penalty league with 48 games left in the season. Mariano Rivera just went down for injury for 14 more games. I play at the Cell and the best reliever replacement would be Joey Devine. I'm up 3 games in my division and one game up in the wild card race as fallback. I have a 10 man staff with 4 starters, 5 relievers without Mariano, including Jenks, Thornton, Figueroa, T.Miller, and Yabu. Starting pitching is mediocre; Mussina, Buehrle, Lilly Wolf.
Would you cut Mariano and pick up Devine or ride out the injury and await Mariano's return?
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Expert Help Requested
by teamnasty » Thu Feb 11, 2010 1:58 am
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Only a 250 pts. rating here.
by chasenally » Thu Feb 11, 2010 2:19 am
No, I would keep him. How many innings would he get if he was not injured during that time? More important is HOW much will you miss him during the post season that you are going to be in. At this point I wouldn't be as worried about the cap hit as the loss of him. One other thing to think about. He saves 3 game during the world series for the team you play against. Just my 2 cents worth. Mike
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by chasenally » Thu Feb 11, 2010 2:37 am
I would keep him, but let me honest about the way I play. I dance with those that brought me. I find it hard to drop MY players. I know it is stupid but me and my paper cards go way back to just about 1 game after the season starts. You don't want him picked up by someone in the race. Mike
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by Rant » Thu Feb 11, 2010 8:33 am
That's some bad luck; pretty rare to happen.
I'd ride it out. You'll get Rivera back with 34 games remaining. I'd rather have Rivera for 34 games than Devine for 48. It's a pretty big drop to Devine (who has an excellent card, don't get me wrong) and his R1/C0. I'd adjust your relief and starter sessions to ride your starters and Jenks (closer), Thornton (main reliever) as much as possible. For that short a time span the dice may work for or against you no matter who you have starting.
I'd ride it out. You'll get Rivera back with 34 games remaining. I'd rather have Rivera for 34 games than Devine for 48. It's a pretty big drop to Devine (who has an excellent card, don't get me wrong) and his R1/C0. I'd adjust your relief and starter sessions to ride your starters and Jenks (closer), Thornton (main reliever) as much as possible. For that short a time span the dice may work for or against you no matter who you have starting.
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by MARCPELLETIER » Thu Feb 11, 2010 11:51 am
Rivera is worth 7.07M for 162 games.
His value per game is 7.07/162 = 0.044 per game
He will be available for 33 games: hence his "value" for the rest of the season is 0.044 * 33 games = 1.44M
Devine is worth 4.99M for 162 games.
His value per game is 0.031 per game.
He will be available for 48 games: hence his value for the rest of the season is 0.031*48 games = 1.48M
So it's pretty much a wash, but Rivera is clearly superior for the playoffs. So I would give the hedge to keeping Rivera.
Had Rivera's injury come later in the season, then, yes, going with Devine would have been the call to make.
His value per game is 7.07/162 = 0.044 per game
He will be available for 33 games: hence his "value" for the rest of the season is 0.044 * 33 games = 1.44M
Devine is worth 4.99M for 162 games.
His value per game is 0.031 per game.
He will be available for 48 games: hence his value for the rest of the season is 0.031*48 games = 1.48M
So it's pretty much a wash, but Rivera is clearly superior for the playoffs. So I would give the hedge to keeping Rivera.
Had Rivera's injury come later in the season, then, yes, going with Devine would have been the call to make.
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by keyzick » Thu Feb 11, 2010 1:36 pm
[quote:b6004a05ac="marcus wilby"]Rivera is worth 7.07M for 162 games.
His value per game is 7.07/162 = 0.044 per game
He will be available for 33 games: hence his "value" for the rest of the season is 0.044 * 33 games = 1.44M
Devine is worth 4.99M for 162 games.
His value per game is 0.031 per game.
He will be available for 48 games: hence his value for the rest of the season is 0.031*48 games = 1.48M
So it's pretty much a wash, but Rivera is clearly superior for the playoffs. So I would give the hedge to keeping Rivera.
Had Rivera's injury come later in the season, then, yes, going with Devine would have been the call to make.[/quote:b6004a05ac]
Interesting take on it, BUT, you I think you have to look at it from the team concept:
Devine's value as closer is the $1.48M you outlined, but if you keep Rivera as the closer, you have the $1.44M value you calculated for the 33 games he's available...AND...you have to add the value you get from using Jenks as your closer during the 15 game injury stretch.
In other words, your alternatives are Devine for 48 OR Jenks for 15 and Rivera for 33.
In which case I think it becomes even more clear to keep Rivera (especially given the playoffs as you mentioned).
His value per game is 7.07/162 = 0.044 per game
He will be available for 33 games: hence his "value" for the rest of the season is 0.044 * 33 games = 1.44M
Devine is worth 4.99M for 162 games.
His value per game is 0.031 per game.
He will be available for 48 games: hence his value for the rest of the season is 0.031*48 games = 1.48M
So it's pretty much a wash, but Rivera is clearly superior for the playoffs. So I would give the hedge to keeping Rivera.
Had Rivera's injury come later in the season, then, yes, going with Devine would have been the call to make.[/quote:b6004a05ac]
Interesting take on it, BUT, you I think you have to look at it from the team concept:
Devine's value as closer is the $1.48M you outlined, but if you keep Rivera as the closer, you have the $1.44M value you calculated for the 33 games he's available...AND...you have to add the value you get from using Jenks as your closer during the 15 game injury stretch.
In other words, your alternatives are Devine for 48 OR Jenks for 15 and Rivera for 33.
In which case I think it becomes even more clear to keep Rivera (especially given the playoffs as you mentioned).
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by MARCPELLETIER » Thu Feb 11, 2010 2:19 pm
good point keyzick.
For the same reason, the usage of Devine will not be as extensive as the one of Rivera, so Devine's value is diminished as a result (in my computation above, I assumed the same usage).
For the same reason, the usage of Devine will not be as extensive as the one of Rivera, so Devine's value is diminished as a result (in my computation above, I assumed the same usage).
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