What guides you guys?

[artie4121]

When making decisions on lineups/rotations/pitching preferences/strategy, what guides you?

The Cards?
The Results of how your team or players are doing?
Instinct?
A combination?

[JOSEPHKENDALL]

It is all about the probabilities based on what the card has on it.

[artie4121]

While I tend to agree, haven't there been times when some player with WELL below the probabilities of another just tears it up and a player with an amazing card does poorly?

Sometimes the mix of division/league rivals, and their teams, parks, etc. just conspires to maximize one player and ding another.

Ever have that?

[JOSEPHKENDALL]

I look at the probabilities based on the park I play in. Then I also look at my division and see what parks I will be in. The cards will vary based on park. The bottom line is that the card is what it is. Other than BPHR and BPSI, the card doesn't change. I have seen hitters do well one season and not the next. The dice rolled during the game determine that outcome. All I can do is pick the best options based on defense, park, and their probabilities for dice rolls.

[MARCPELLETIER]

[quote:d25859cd75]While I tend to agree, haven't there been times when some player with WELL below the probabilities of another just tears it up and a player with an amazing card does poorly?[/quote:d25859cd75]

I think one part of the answer is ballpark probabilities. Some players tend to always be in hitters park while others, the Longorias, the Scutaros, they tend to be in pitchers park and it impacts their offensive profile.

But I would also add that coaches underestimate the impact of bad clutch, excellent running on the bases, double plays, not to mention that coaches like fans, even here, overvalue hits vs walks, and don't take fully account of the impact of defense.

Not that it matters much, winningwise, because TSN value those aspects pretty highly (actually, perhaps too highly). The irony is that you are perhaps better served by ignoring those issues!!! (well, except perhaps defense).

But bottom line, when you compare two cards that have who fall at two extremes on those issues, you just forget to link all the dots. Take for example Sandoval vs McCutchen, at 7.11M and 6.59, somewhat similar if you add up McCutchen 15-games injry risk. I would bet that most owners feel Sandoval bring much more to their teams than McCutchen (actually, in most 80M leagues, I believe McCutchen is snubbed).

They see on paper the impact of Sandoval, his batting average, his rbis, his runs, inflated by the so-many hits. There is no column in TSN for rbis lost by the team because of Sandoval's bad clutch, no trace of McCutchen scoring from first on a double, forcing a throw home, making other players advance, McCutchen's RC will not show the number of times he let his teams continue to score runs because he has no gbA on his cards. TSN, still, has no RC defense.

Moreover, because Sandoval has so many hits; if he starts the season on a hot streak, his batting average balloons by 50 points to .380 and you say, wow, what a all-star. The same hot streak for McCutchen would inflate his onbase by 50 points and his batting average by perhaps 30 points, making his line to something .300/.390/490. Good, but not spectacular.

Of course, that doesn't make Sandoval a bad player. I had him on two teams and he's been great.

To give another example, Kinsler's batting average is .250. Considering the quality of the pitching, and provided that TSN replicates pretty fairly his production, you should expect a drop by perhpas 40 points. When his BA touched .200, one of my good buddy just got mad, killed the card, and threw him in the freezer. Yet, I have the sense that the same drop, proportionnally, by Sandoval, from .330 to .290, would not trigger the same rage.

[AeroDave10]

Marcus,

One major thing that you overlooked in the McCutchen / Sandoval comparison is that McCutchen has <600 PAs and Sandoval has >600 PAs. Add in the fact that some people may choose to play Sandoval at catcher, a position where there are very few 600+ PA players and it's a bit more obvious why everyone picks the "Big Panda" over McCutchen.

[MARCPELLETIER]

Oh, absolutely, AeroDave, and centerfielder is deeper than catcher.

But forget about the position or the stadium for a second. My point is about how people react when they look at the stats. People are getting EXCITED when they see Sandoval's stats, and they don't when they look at McCutchen, when in fact they are priced relatively the same because TSN believes they should contribute the same (and according to my own assessment, they probably do contribute the same).

[Jerlins]

The only time I tend to overvalue BA vs OBP is playing in a pitcher's park, where a single is much more important than a walk, of course, depending on where they fit into my lineup. Agreed on DP's, which is why I'll never have folks like M. Young on my 2010 teams. He's not good enough for the top of the order, you surely can't hit him near the middle with all those DP's and so so power, so spending that much coin on a bottom of the lineup kind of guy in an $80 league makes little sense.

[MARCPELLETIER]

According to my ratings, for what they're worth, assuming a neutral stadium (8 everywhere), ratio lh/rh=30/70, no extra point for switch.

RC offense
no adjustment for gbA and clutch (I left gbC there)

Sandoval = 11th
McClutchen=61th

(actually, if you look for OPS, Sandoval reaches top 10)

RC offense adjusted for gbA and clutch
Sandoval=15th
McClutchen=44th

RC off_adj + RC running
Sandoval=17th
McClutchen=35th

RC off_adj + RC running + RC defense
Sandoval=31th
McClutchen=28th

The whole thing, adjusted for injury and small edge to switch hitters
Sandoval 27th, 6.96M (neutral value)
McCutchen, 28th, 6.95M (good value)

This said, in a homerun park, Sandoval increases more rapidly than McCutchen. Also, lineup position was not considered: Sandoval is likely to hit higher than McCutchen. Almost 10% worth if we consider McCutchen to be a 9th hitter. But McCutchen value increases sharply when put in an environment with a lot of stadium singles.

[ROBERTLATORRE]

Marcus, love the numbers and analysis, makes sense to me.

Add in defense and their OPS modified for fielding are within .030 of each other.

Would still go with Sandoval at C, then Sandoval at 3B, then McCutch at CF, THEN Sandoval at 1B because of the depth in the player pool at each position. Overall Sandoval is a better pick for me because of all of the positions he can play.