Determining pitcher year by K/BB ratios

[wavygravy2k]

The numbers from strikeouts and walks divided by innings pitched seem to be pretty accurate. Would anyone agree that this is a good way to help determine a pitchers year?

Take a look at [url=http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/player.html?player_id=3370&year=1690]John Smoltz[/url].

I divided his simulated walks (8) by innings pitched (31) to get .26 and then divided his strikeouts (39) by innings pitched to get 1.26. Below are the numbers of the five possible years:

.38 .74
.34 .65
.33 .87
.41 .86
.22 1.09

Despite his 6.89 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, 1996 could possibly be the year.

For comparison, I checked the numbers of [url=http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/player.html?player_id=5218&year=2009&group_id=110365]Chris Carpenter[/url] from the 2009 set

and his actual walk and strikeout ratio was .20/.75. Here's a list of some simmed seasons:

.21 .67
.27 .69
.26 .80
.21 .73
.25 .77

As you can see, the ratios from the simmed seasons are quite accurate.

[durantjerry]

I think this is an effective way to evaluate pitchers, especially when you have additional data(L vs R, for example). With guys like Clemens and Schilling, the K's by themselves narrow down the seasons pretty quickly and accurately.

[Paul5757]

I don't think 31 innings is enough to determine anything. One screwy outing will mess up you ratios big time.

Remember that (roughly) 1/2 the results are coming from the hitter's cards, and the big (and probably popular in this set) HR hitters probably KO a ton too, more so than the cheap slap hitters.

[wavygravy2k]

[quote:827a46a1b1="Toi_San"]I don't think 31 innings is enough to determine anything. One screwy outing will mess up you ratios big time.

Remember that (roughly) 1/2 the results are coming from the hitter's cards, and the big (and probably popular in this set) HR hitters probably KO a ton too, more so than the cheap slap hitters.[/quote:827a46a1b1]

Yeah you are right.