[quote:7b7bae9f7d="toronto50"]2. Keep your total range of 2b, ss, and cf below a sum total of 4.[/quote:7b7bae9f7d]
Isn't that the same thing as saying only use 1's at 2b, ss and cf? You can't have even one 2 and still be below a sum total of 4.
The Secret Formula 2010
by apolivka » Mon Dec 20, 2010 11:55 am
The thing I really like about this game is that are an almost unlimited number of ways to win. I love J-pav's "winning formula" and look forward to reading it every year. It's a great read, and like to compare my teams to the formula. My teams are never even close to the formula, but I tend to win a lot more than I lose. But, therein lies the fun.
The thing about having all ones at ss, 2b, and cf is a guideline that can certainly be successful, but like everything certainly isn't always true, or even usually true. There are only so many ones to go around in 20xx and getting three of them is tough. And some of them are really bad values depending on where you play!
I played two 2009 teams. The 1st team, those three positions added up to 7--that team won 94 and tied for the best record in the league. The 2nd team those numbers added up to a 6.5 (with a 2/3 platoon, the 2 facing right handers, so maybe it was really a 6.3 or so)--that team won 93 and had the best record in the league.
The thing about having all ones at ss, 2b, and cf is a guideline that can certainly be successful, but like everything certainly isn't always true, or even usually true. There are only so many ones to go around in 20xx and getting three of them is tough. And some of them are really bad values depending on where you play!
I played two 2009 teams. The 1st team, those three positions added up to 7--that team won 94 and tied for the best record in the league. The 2nd team those numbers added up to a 6.5 (with a 2/3 platoon, the 2 facing right handers, so maybe it was really a 6.3 or so)--that team won 93 and had the best record in the league.
- apolivka
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by Neil Toomey » Mon Dec 20, 2010 12:00 pm
I think he meant 4 or below for the sum of range totals at 2b, ss, cf.
- Neil Toomey
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I should just keep my mouth closed, but...
by bomp helium » Tue Dec 21, 2010 1:22 am
nothing personal, but I've have pretty good success with the opposite strategy...with injury-prone players and horrible defense up the middle...if this thread was titled "One Way to Win", then I'd have no problem...but it comes off as if it were a tablet handed down to Moses by Abner Doubleday...J-Pav may be right that in REAL baseball, all other things being equal, superior defense up the middle is a plus...but at what cost?
In my opinion, defense is overpriced in SOM...I would rather get a high-OPB, sub $1 million ss and use the rest of the money to add another crusher or to upgrade starting pitching.
The name of the game here is value. "Defense", in SOM, is a subset of pitching...i.e., the x-rolls are all on the pitchers card...so, for example, if you are in a hitters park, an SP with no ballpark singles can virtually cancel out a liability at ss or 2b. That is a mathematical truth. And I would suggest that non-BP singles pitchers (at a high-BP singles park) is an undervalued commodity, as the advantage occurs at only a few parks.
I play the 2004 set, only because I'm too lazy/busy to evaluate the newer card sets...I stick with what I know...and my shortstop lately has been Wilson Delgado, (.69), who is a 3e34 but has a .366 OBP. I use the extra money to upgrade my starters, preferably to a non-BP single SP...the non-BP single (in the appropriate park) basically cancels out whatever damage Delgado might do...and he is an ideal #9 hitter, with a high BA (.292) and OBP (.366) and zero DPs at an absurdly cheap price (.69)...
All I'm saying is that there are an infinity of ways to win...but the single most important factor is VALUE -- value related to the park you are playing in, your division, your lineup and the style of play you prefer...
Personally, I feel the game is about scoring runs. To that end, I prefer a lineup without any holes...I generally have high-OBP studs (close to .400) with power or at least pop in the 1-7 spots. 8-9 are high-OBP, low-DP guys. The idea is to turn the lineup over...to get your top four hitters as many ABs as possible with as many runners on base as possible...
That scenarios maximizes the VALUE of your stud hitters.
I admit J-Pav has put tons of work into this, and under certain circumstances his strategy has been effective. But I've used the opposite strategy with equal success. (The fact that 8 out of 10 managers do something different means zero to me). In fact, out of guilt, thinking I must be wrong, I've often grabbed a 1 at 2b (Hudson in the 2004 set) or a 2 to offset my disaster ss. Yet, virtually every time, I have started slowly, and only picked up steam when I dumped Hudson and used the money either to upgrade SP or the bullpen or to pick up another stud position player who has been dropped. This makes no sense given the "Secret Formula" but it's been my experience time and time again.
Admittedly, having several fours in the lineup -- I usually have at least three (always at the corners -- and they better be monster hitters) -- may not be everyone's cup of tea, but again, it depends on value. I've won several championships with my 3e34 ss (Delgado), a couple with a 4e6 ss (Larkin, 1.04 price, .360 OBP) and one with a 3e34 ss AND a 4e4 2B (Hill, .61 price, .355 OBP)...
The only thing that hasn't worked for me is a 4 in CF...I believe that is because a 3e34 ss will generally cost you ONE base when he screws up, while a screwup in CF often costs you at least 2 bases.
VALUE VALUE VALUE VALUE...
and of course TAILOR YOUR PLAYERS TO: 1) YOUR PARK; and 2) YOUR DIVISION...
If I have a "secret", it's a lineup that turns over...number 8-9 players who, instead of killing a rally, can keep it going and turn it over again to the top of the lineup can be worth quite a few runs over the course of a season...I often have 2004 Bonds (over .600 OBP), and the whole thing is designed to get him as many extra productive at-bats as I can over the course of a season....he's had over 200 RBIs twice for me and 200 runs scored at least once that I can recall...
Other points:
1) Don't dismiss injury-prone players out of hand. They often can have exceptional VALUE. And if you have, say, three, injury-prone starters, then an outstanding sub (around 1.00) who can cover all three positions becomes a VALUE pick as well...
2) Try not to leave money on the bench or in the bullpen. The more money you have ON THE FIELD, the better VALUE these players become...
3) Have a premier #1 * starter...this will help you succeed once you get to the playoffs, as having an ace for games 1 and 5 (while your opponent's non-* ace pitches only game 1) can be a huge advantage. And remember, prizes are not awarded for reaching the playoffs, but rather for winning at least one round in the playoffs...
4) remember, these are not grown men running around on a field. This is a dice game, pure mathematics. Evaluate the cards for YOUR park and your offense, and ignore the actual name on the card...
5) and of course be patient. Dice can be whimsical and streaky, but tend to balance out over the course of a long season.
6) HAL too, can be frustrating, so it is imperative to try and figure out how he will handle your lineup and bullpen. Having HAL use your players efficiently increases their VALUE...
my apologies for going against the grain, and doubtless infuriating the experts, but that's my experience, for what it's worth...
sincerely,
Devil's Advocate
In my opinion, defense is overpriced in SOM...I would rather get a high-OPB, sub $1 million ss and use the rest of the money to add another crusher or to upgrade starting pitching.
The name of the game here is value. "Defense", in SOM, is a subset of pitching...i.e., the x-rolls are all on the pitchers card...so, for example, if you are in a hitters park, an SP with no ballpark singles can virtually cancel out a liability at ss or 2b. That is a mathematical truth. And I would suggest that non-BP singles pitchers (at a high-BP singles park) is an undervalued commodity, as the advantage occurs at only a few parks.
I play the 2004 set, only because I'm too lazy/busy to evaluate the newer card sets...I stick with what I know...and my shortstop lately has been Wilson Delgado, (.69), who is a 3e34 but has a .366 OBP. I use the extra money to upgrade my starters, preferably to a non-BP single SP...the non-BP single (in the appropriate park) basically cancels out whatever damage Delgado might do...and he is an ideal #9 hitter, with a high BA (.292) and OBP (.366) and zero DPs at an absurdly cheap price (.69)...
All I'm saying is that there are an infinity of ways to win...but the single most important factor is VALUE -- value related to the park you are playing in, your division, your lineup and the style of play you prefer...
Personally, I feel the game is about scoring runs. To that end, I prefer a lineup without any holes...I generally have high-OBP studs (close to .400) with power or at least pop in the 1-7 spots. 8-9 are high-OBP, low-DP guys. The idea is to turn the lineup over...to get your top four hitters as many ABs as possible with as many runners on base as possible...
That scenarios maximizes the VALUE of your stud hitters.
I admit J-Pav has put tons of work into this, and under certain circumstances his strategy has been effective. But I've used the opposite strategy with equal success. (The fact that 8 out of 10 managers do something different means zero to me). In fact, out of guilt, thinking I must be wrong, I've often grabbed a 1 at 2b (Hudson in the 2004 set) or a 2 to offset my disaster ss. Yet, virtually every time, I have started slowly, and only picked up steam when I dumped Hudson and used the money either to upgrade SP or the bullpen or to pick up another stud position player who has been dropped. This makes no sense given the "Secret Formula" but it's been my experience time and time again.
Admittedly, having several fours in the lineup -- I usually have at least three (always at the corners -- and they better be monster hitters) -- may not be everyone's cup of tea, but again, it depends on value. I've won several championships with my 3e34 ss (Delgado), a couple with a 4e6 ss (Larkin, 1.04 price, .360 OBP) and one with a 3e34 ss AND a 4e4 2B (Hill, .61 price, .355 OBP)...
The only thing that hasn't worked for me is a 4 in CF...I believe that is because a 3e34 ss will generally cost you ONE base when he screws up, while a screwup in CF often costs you at least 2 bases.
VALUE VALUE VALUE VALUE...
and of course TAILOR YOUR PLAYERS TO: 1) YOUR PARK; and 2) YOUR DIVISION...
If I have a "secret", it's a lineup that turns over...number 8-9 players who, instead of killing a rally, can keep it going and turn it over again to the top of the lineup can be worth quite a few runs over the course of a season...I often have 2004 Bonds (over .600 OBP), and the whole thing is designed to get him as many extra productive at-bats as I can over the course of a season....he's had over 200 RBIs twice for me and 200 runs scored at least once that I can recall...
Other points:
1) Don't dismiss injury-prone players out of hand. They often can have exceptional VALUE. And if you have, say, three, injury-prone starters, then an outstanding sub (around 1.00) who can cover all three positions becomes a VALUE pick as well...
2) Try not to leave money on the bench or in the bullpen. The more money you have ON THE FIELD, the better VALUE these players become...
3) Have a premier #1 * starter...this will help you succeed once you get to the playoffs, as having an ace for games 1 and 5 (while your opponent's non-* ace pitches only game 1) can be a huge advantage. And remember, prizes are not awarded for reaching the playoffs, but rather for winning at least one round in the playoffs...
4) remember, these are not grown men running around on a field. This is a dice game, pure mathematics. Evaluate the cards for YOUR park and your offense, and ignore the actual name on the card...
5) and of course be patient. Dice can be whimsical and streaky, but tend to balance out over the course of a long season.
6) HAL too, can be frustrating, so it is imperative to try and figure out how he will handle your lineup and bullpen. Having HAL use your players efficiently increases their VALUE...
my apologies for going against the grain, and doubtless infuriating the experts, but that's my experience, for what it's worth...
sincerely,
Devil's Advocate
- bomp helium
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by bomp helium » Tue Dec 21, 2010 1:25 am
P.S. -- I see that I only have two stars now, implying a distinct lack of credibility...the thing is I had five stars at one point!...but they keep disappearing!...it appears I don't spend enough money at SOM...:)
- bomp helium
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by apolivka » Tue Dec 21, 2010 9:15 am
Hey helium56! shhhhhhhhhh!!!! You're giving away a lot of my "secrets" too. :)
I think this thread, however, is a good guide for a fairly easy way to always be competitive. It's easier to optimize the expensive guys, but tougher to find the key cheapies. Those high value (for certain parks/teams) guys near the bottom of the salary structure can be just as key as the 1 CF stud. Picking good platoons and backups for injury prone players can be just as important to winning as having those great starters.
As I always say--lots of way to win here.
I think this thread, however, is a good guide for a fairly easy way to always be competitive. It's easier to optimize the expensive guys, but tougher to find the key cheapies. Those high value (for certain parks/teams) guys near the bottom of the salary structure can be just as key as the 1 CF stud. Picking good platoons and backups for injury prone players can be just as important to winning as having those great starters.
As I always say--lots of way to win here.
- apolivka
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
Re: I should just keep my mouth closed, but...
by J-Pav » Tue Dec 21, 2010 11:26 pm
[b:ee0657c004]Helium56[/b:ee0657c004]:
Your post was kind of all over the map, so I'll just go down line by line and add my perspective to the conversation.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]nothing personal, but I've have pretty good success with the opposite strategy...with injury-prone players and horrible defense up the middle...if this thread was titled "One Way to Win", then I'd have no problem...but it comes off as if it were a tablet handed down to Moses by Abner Doubleday...J-Pav may be right that in REAL baseball, all other things being equal, superior defense up the middle is a plus...but at what cost?[/quote:ee0657c004]
I can only apologize in hindsight for any perceived pompous attitude. I'm not Moses or Abner Doubleday, I'm just a bored forum reader and once a year I try to do my part to get some dialogue going. I think I write pretty well, and I usually spend two to three weeks writing the annual post. It's well researched and I want it to come across as authoritative, not pompous. If you want to see pompous, you should line up across from me in beer league men's hockey!
***Humor break: http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7192553/
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]In my opinion, defense is overpriced in SOM...I would rather get a high-OPB, sub $1 million ss and use the rest of the money to add another crusher or to upgrade starting pitching..[/quote:ee0657c004]
You must be completely misunderstanding my argument. I'm not offering an opinion. I'm reporting an observation. So while you are certainly welcome to a contrary opinion, what's your point? My point is that if you take 20 Championship teams and compare them, certain observable themes repeat year after year. That you feel defense is overpriced in no way changes the observable fact: [i:ee0657c004]Championship teams[/i:ee0657c004] choose 1s and 2s over 90% of the time at 2B, SS and CF.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]The name of the game here is value. "Defense", in SOM, is a subset of pitching...i.e., the x-rolls are all on the pitchers card...so, for example, if you are in a hitters park, an SP with no ballpark singles can virtually cancel out a liability at ss or 2b. That is a mathematical truth. And I would suggest that non-BP singles pitchers (at a high-BP singles park) is an undervalued commodity, as the advantage occurs at only a few parks..[/quote:ee0657c004]
Helium, you're throwing out a tutorial without any supporting evidence. Here's the mathematical truth: http://andrew-stevens.tripod.com/index/stratfield.html
Let's assume a standard Champs team plays 2s at 2B, 3B, SS and CF, with 3s everywhere else. If you reverse that and play 3s at 2B, 3B, SS and CF with 2s everywhere else, you've just spotted me a 15% advantage on defense. To regain an equal footing (on defense), you would have to upgrade C, 1B, LF and RF to 1s. Your argument, I think, is that you find a net advantage on offense by playing the 3s (or worse) and scoring more net runs. Can you offer me 20 Champs teams that bear out your argument? In seven years of looking at 20 Champs teams, I don't believe I've come across it once. If I did, one team in 140 would be a less than one percent occurence. How does that help anyone?
I think you misunderstand my argument totally. The Secret Formula is not supposed to be the J-Pav winning formula. The Secret Formula is not intended to embrace the Helium winning formula. The Secret Formula is the observable averages of what all Championship teams have in common. If you're a new player to the game, I think understanding this is a vital first step to having any chance against a top manager.
The flip side of the coin is to study what the worst teams in any league have in common. I did this once, and I don't intend to repeat it because there's no sportsmanship in posting other manager's lesser efforts. But the results were 100% repeatable: the #1 cause of poor records is forfeiting salary to the FA pool. The #2 cause is poor defense.
That you can overcome that sometimes is a credit to your player selections. But it's not the way of the "average" Championship manager. You need to be at a positive 100 net runs. However you get there is fine, but it's demonstrably [i:ee0657c004]easier[/i:ee0657c004] if you play 2s at middle defense.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]I play the 2004 set, only because I'm too lazy/busy to evaluate the newer card sets...I stick with what I know...and my shortstop lately has been Wilson Delgado, (.69), who is a 3e34 but has a .366 OBP. I use the extra money to upgrade my starters, preferably to a non-BP single SP...the non-BP single (in the appropriate park) basically cancels out whatever damage Delgado might do...and he is an ideal #9 hitter, with a high BA (.292) and OBP (.366) and zero DPs at an absurdly cheap price (.69)....[/quote:ee0657c004]
You know, a lots changed since 2004.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]All I'm saying is that there are an infinity of ways to win...but the single most important factor is VALUE -- value related to the park you are playing in, your division, your lineup and the style of play you prefer...[/quote:ee0657c004]
Yes and no. Saying "value" is important is just stating the obvious. The sky is blue. Your park, your division, your lineup and your style of play is like saying the sky is not red, green, orange or yellow. Back up your argument and SHOW ME how your lineups, etc. create value. It must be repeatable by anyone to be of real value to anyone other than yourself.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]Personally, I feel the game is about scoring runs. To that end, I prefer a lineup without any holes...I generally have high-OBP studs (close to .400) with power or at least pop in the 1-7 spots. 8-9 are high-OBP, low-DP guys. The idea is to turn the lineup over...to get your top four hitters as many ABs as possible with as many runners on base as possible...
That scenarios maximizes the VALUE of your stud hitters.[/quote:ee0657c004]
Maximizing net runs is the whole lesson of The Secret Formula!! How are you still not seeing this?? That you found another way misses the point completely. After doing this for seven years are their still people who read my post and conclude "J-Pav believes there's only one good way to win in SOM Online"?
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]I admit J-Pav has put tons of work into this, and under certain circumstances his strategy has been effective. But I've used the opposite strategy with equal success. [/quote:ee0657c004]
So by equal success you mean you can post 140 Championship teams that demonstrate your claim? Or do you just feel really, really strongly about your opinion?
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"](The fact that 8 out of 10 managers do something different means zero to me). In fact, out of guilt, thinking I must be wrong, I've often grabbed a 1 at 2b (Hudson in the 2004 set) or a 2 to offset my disaster ss. Yet, virtually every time, I have started slowly, and only picked up steam when I dumped Hudson and used the money either to upgrade SP or the bullpen or to pick up another stud position player who has been dropped. This makes no sense given the "Secret Formula" but it's been my experience time and time again.[/quote:ee0657c004]
Time and time again? Helium, when you lose to another team who takes the ring, do you understand what they did differently to beat you? Take all the Championship teams you've ever lost to, add, subtract, multiply and divide. When you do, you'll have an "average looking" Championship team. That team will look very close to what I've been describing for seven years now. It's like you're arguing that I can't add. You're missing the bigger picture.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]Admittedly, having several fours in the lineup -- I usually have at least three (always at the corners -- and they better be monster hitters) -- may not be everyone's cup of tea, but again, it depends on value. I've won several championships with my 3e34 ss (Delgado), a couple with a 4e6 ss (Larkin, 1.04 price, .360 OBP) and one with a 3e34 ss AND a 4e4 2B (Hill, .61 price, .355 OBP)...
The only thing that hasn't worked for me is a 4 in CF...I believe that is because a 3e34 ss will generally cost you ONE base when he screws up, while a screwup in CF often costs you at least 2 bases.
VALUE VALUE VALUE VALUE...
and of course TAILOR YOUR PLAYERS TO: 1) YOUR PARK; and 2) YOUR DIVISION...[/quote:ee0657c004]
We've covered this already.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]If I have a "secret", it's a lineup that turns over...number 8-9 players who, instead of killing a rally, can keep it going and turn it over again to the top of the lineup can be worth quite a few runs over the course of a season...I often have 2004 Bonds (over .600 OBP), and the whole thing is designed to get him as many extra productive at-bats as I can over the course of a season....he's had over 200 RBIs twice for me and 200 runs scored at least once that I can recall...[/quote:ee0657c004]
You're saying the same thing over and over as if by repeating it then it somehow means something more. All you're saying is that you get your 100 net positive runs from enhancing your offense by sacrificing your defense. I get it. All I'm saying is that the average Championship manager gets his 100 net postive runs by following...(drum roll)...The Secret Formula. It's observable, repeatable and quite easy to implement. That you found another way doesn't negate the observation.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]Other points:
1) Don't dismiss injury-prone players out of hand. They often can have exceptional VALUE. And if you have, say, three, injury-prone starters, then an outstanding sub (around 1.00) who can cover all three positions becomes a VALUE pick as well...[/quote:ee0657c004]
I play injury prone players all the time. To wit, A-Rod, Beltran and Wilson in this year's TSF Theory in Action effort.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]2) Try not to leave money on the bench or in the bullpen. The more money you have ON THE FIELD, the better VALUE these players become...[/quote:ee0657c004]
Agree.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]3) Have a premier #1 * starter...this will help you succeed once you get to the playoffs, as having an ace for games 1 and 5 (while your opponent's non-* ace pitches only game 1) can be a huge advantage. And remember, prizes are not awarded for reaching the playoffs, but rather for winning at least one round in the playoffs...[/quote:ee0657c004]
Agreed. Try and find someone at least in the $7 range! :wink:
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]4) remember, these are not grown men running around on a field. This is a dice game, pure mathematics. Evaluate the cards for YOUR park and your offense, and ignore the actual name on the card...[/quote:ee0657c004]
It's a harmless and obvious generalization, but I agree.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]5) and of course be patient. Dice can be whimsical and streaky, but tend to balance out over the course of a long season.[/quote:ee0657c004]
Forfeiting salary is hazardous to the success of (most) any team.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]6) HAL too, can be frustrating, so it is imperative to try and figure out how he will handle your lineup and bullpen. Having HAL use your players efficiently increases their VALUE...[/quote:ee0657c004]
Ummm...ah, never mind.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]my apologies for going against the grain, and doubtless infuriating the experts, but that's my experience, for what it's worth...
sincerely,
Devil's Advocate[/quote:ee0657c004]
No apologies necessary, I appreciate your taking the time to make a long post and create some dialogue. I thought this thread would die on the vine with no responses for awhile there!! :D
Your post was kind of all over the map, so I'll just go down line by line and add my perspective to the conversation.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]nothing personal, but I've have pretty good success with the opposite strategy...with injury-prone players and horrible defense up the middle...if this thread was titled "One Way to Win", then I'd have no problem...but it comes off as if it were a tablet handed down to Moses by Abner Doubleday...J-Pav may be right that in REAL baseball, all other things being equal, superior defense up the middle is a plus...but at what cost?[/quote:ee0657c004]
I can only apologize in hindsight for any perceived pompous attitude. I'm not Moses or Abner Doubleday, I'm just a bored forum reader and once a year I try to do my part to get some dialogue going. I think I write pretty well, and I usually spend two to three weeks writing the annual post. It's well researched and I want it to come across as authoritative, not pompous. If you want to see pompous, you should line up across from me in beer league men's hockey!
***Humor break: http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7192553/
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]In my opinion, defense is overpriced in SOM...I would rather get a high-OPB, sub $1 million ss and use the rest of the money to add another crusher or to upgrade starting pitching..[/quote:ee0657c004]
You must be completely misunderstanding my argument. I'm not offering an opinion. I'm reporting an observation. So while you are certainly welcome to a contrary opinion, what's your point? My point is that if you take 20 Championship teams and compare them, certain observable themes repeat year after year. That you feel defense is overpriced in no way changes the observable fact: [i:ee0657c004]Championship teams[/i:ee0657c004] choose 1s and 2s over 90% of the time at 2B, SS and CF.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]The name of the game here is value. "Defense", in SOM, is a subset of pitching...i.e., the x-rolls are all on the pitchers card...so, for example, if you are in a hitters park, an SP with no ballpark singles can virtually cancel out a liability at ss or 2b. That is a mathematical truth. And I would suggest that non-BP singles pitchers (at a high-BP singles park) is an undervalued commodity, as the advantage occurs at only a few parks..[/quote:ee0657c004]
Helium, you're throwing out a tutorial without any supporting evidence. Here's the mathematical truth: http://andrew-stevens.tripod.com/index/stratfield.html
Let's assume a standard Champs team plays 2s at 2B, 3B, SS and CF, with 3s everywhere else. If you reverse that and play 3s at 2B, 3B, SS and CF with 2s everywhere else, you've just spotted me a 15% advantage on defense. To regain an equal footing (on defense), you would have to upgrade C, 1B, LF and RF to 1s. Your argument, I think, is that you find a net advantage on offense by playing the 3s (or worse) and scoring more net runs. Can you offer me 20 Champs teams that bear out your argument? In seven years of looking at 20 Champs teams, I don't believe I've come across it once. If I did, one team in 140 would be a less than one percent occurence. How does that help anyone?
I think you misunderstand my argument totally. The Secret Formula is not supposed to be the J-Pav winning formula. The Secret Formula is not intended to embrace the Helium winning formula. The Secret Formula is the observable averages of what all Championship teams have in common. If you're a new player to the game, I think understanding this is a vital first step to having any chance against a top manager.
The flip side of the coin is to study what the worst teams in any league have in common. I did this once, and I don't intend to repeat it because there's no sportsmanship in posting other manager's lesser efforts. But the results were 100% repeatable: the #1 cause of poor records is forfeiting salary to the FA pool. The #2 cause is poor defense.
That you can overcome that sometimes is a credit to your player selections. But it's not the way of the "average" Championship manager. You need to be at a positive 100 net runs. However you get there is fine, but it's demonstrably [i:ee0657c004]easier[/i:ee0657c004] if you play 2s at middle defense.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]I play the 2004 set, only because I'm too lazy/busy to evaluate the newer card sets...I stick with what I know...and my shortstop lately has been Wilson Delgado, (.69), who is a 3e34 but has a .366 OBP. I use the extra money to upgrade my starters, preferably to a non-BP single SP...the non-BP single (in the appropriate park) basically cancels out whatever damage Delgado might do...and he is an ideal #9 hitter, with a high BA (.292) and OBP (.366) and zero DPs at an absurdly cheap price (.69)....[/quote:ee0657c004]
You know, a lots changed since 2004.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]All I'm saying is that there are an infinity of ways to win...but the single most important factor is VALUE -- value related to the park you are playing in, your division, your lineup and the style of play you prefer...[/quote:ee0657c004]
Yes and no. Saying "value" is important is just stating the obvious. The sky is blue. Your park, your division, your lineup and your style of play is like saying the sky is not red, green, orange or yellow. Back up your argument and SHOW ME how your lineups, etc. create value. It must be repeatable by anyone to be of real value to anyone other than yourself.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]Personally, I feel the game is about scoring runs. To that end, I prefer a lineup without any holes...I generally have high-OBP studs (close to .400) with power or at least pop in the 1-7 spots. 8-9 are high-OBP, low-DP guys. The idea is to turn the lineup over...to get your top four hitters as many ABs as possible with as many runners on base as possible...
That scenarios maximizes the VALUE of your stud hitters.[/quote:ee0657c004]
Maximizing net runs is the whole lesson of The Secret Formula!! How are you still not seeing this?? That you found another way misses the point completely. After doing this for seven years are their still people who read my post and conclude "J-Pav believes there's only one good way to win in SOM Online"?
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]I admit J-Pav has put tons of work into this, and under certain circumstances his strategy has been effective. But I've used the opposite strategy with equal success. [/quote:ee0657c004]
So by equal success you mean you can post 140 Championship teams that demonstrate your claim? Or do you just feel really, really strongly about your opinion?
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"](The fact that 8 out of 10 managers do something different means zero to me). In fact, out of guilt, thinking I must be wrong, I've often grabbed a 1 at 2b (Hudson in the 2004 set) or a 2 to offset my disaster ss. Yet, virtually every time, I have started slowly, and only picked up steam when I dumped Hudson and used the money either to upgrade SP or the bullpen or to pick up another stud position player who has been dropped. This makes no sense given the "Secret Formula" but it's been my experience time and time again.[/quote:ee0657c004]
Time and time again? Helium, when you lose to another team who takes the ring, do you understand what they did differently to beat you? Take all the Championship teams you've ever lost to, add, subtract, multiply and divide. When you do, you'll have an "average looking" Championship team. That team will look very close to what I've been describing for seven years now. It's like you're arguing that I can't add. You're missing the bigger picture.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]Admittedly, having several fours in the lineup -- I usually have at least three (always at the corners -- and they better be monster hitters) -- may not be everyone's cup of tea, but again, it depends on value. I've won several championships with my 3e34 ss (Delgado), a couple with a 4e6 ss (Larkin, 1.04 price, .360 OBP) and one with a 3e34 ss AND a 4e4 2B (Hill, .61 price, .355 OBP)...
The only thing that hasn't worked for me is a 4 in CF...I believe that is because a 3e34 ss will generally cost you ONE base when he screws up, while a screwup in CF often costs you at least 2 bases.
VALUE VALUE VALUE VALUE...
and of course TAILOR YOUR PLAYERS TO: 1) YOUR PARK; and 2) YOUR DIVISION...[/quote:ee0657c004]
We've covered this already.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]If I have a "secret", it's a lineup that turns over...number 8-9 players who, instead of killing a rally, can keep it going and turn it over again to the top of the lineup can be worth quite a few runs over the course of a season...I often have 2004 Bonds (over .600 OBP), and the whole thing is designed to get him as many extra productive at-bats as I can over the course of a season....he's had over 200 RBIs twice for me and 200 runs scored at least once that I can recall...[/quote:ee0657c004]
You're saying the same thing over and over as if by repeating it then it somehow means something more. All you're saying is that you get your 100 net positive runs from enhancing your offense by sacrificing your defense. I get it. All I'm saying is that the average Championship manager gets his 100 net postive runs by following...(drum roll)...The Secret Formula. It's observable, repeatable and quite easy to implement. That you found another way doesn't negate the observation.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]Other points:
1) Don't dismiss injury-prone players out of hand. They often can have exceptional VALUE. And if you have, say, three, injury-prone starters, then an outstanding sub (around 1.00) who can cover all three positions becomes a VALUE pick as well...[/quote:ee0657c004]
I play injury prone players all the time. To wit, A-Rod, Beltran and Wilson in this year's TSF Theory in Action effort.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]2) Try not to leave money on the bench or in the bullpen. The more money you have ON THE FIELD, the better VALUE these players become...[/quote:ee0657c004]
Agree.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]3) Have a premier #1 * starter...this will help you succeed once you get to the playoffs, as having an ace for games 1 and 5 (while your opponent's non-* ace pitches only game 1) can be a huge advantage. And remember, prizes are not awarded for reaching the playoffs, but rather for winning at least one round in the playoffs...[/quote:ee0657c004]
Agreed. Try and find someone at least in the $7 range! :wink:
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]4) remember, these are not grown men running around on a field. This is a dice game, pure mathematics. Evaluate the cards for YOUR park and your offense, and ignore the actual name on the card...[/quote:ee0657c004]
It's a harmless and obvious generalization, but I agree.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]5) and of course be patient. Dice can be whimsical and streaky, but tend to balance out over the course of a long season.[/quote:ee0657c004]
Forfeiting salary is hazardous to the success of (most) any team.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]6) HAL too, can be frustrating, so it is imperative to try and figure out how he will handle your lineup and bullpen. Having HAL use your players efficiently increases their VALUE...[/quote:ee0657c004]
Ummm...ah, never mind.
[quote:ee0657c004="helium56"]my apologies for going against the grain, and doubtless infuriating the experts, but that's my experience, for what it's worth...
sincerely,
Devil's Advocate[/quote:ee0657c004]
No apologies necessary, I appreciate your taking the time to make a long post and create some dialogue. I thought this thread would die on the vine with no responses for awhile there!! :D
- J-Pav
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by J-Pav » Tue Dec 21, 2010 11:44 pm
[b:2f5d6f2b52]Toronto[/b:2f5d6f2b52] (Go Leafs!) and [b:2f5d6f2b52]apolivka[/b:2f5d6f2b52]:
Something to consider about middle defense...
I've made the argument that "when a Championship manager is choosing a player at the key defensive positions of 2B, SS and CF, in NINE cases out of TEN he will choose a one or a two." This might be missing a better argument: "[i:2f5d6f2b52]Two thirds of the time he will choose a two[/i:2f5d6f2b52]."
As the cards march onward toward statistical perfection, utilizing ones might be getting closer to the "too much of a good thing" thing. Just something to consider...
Something to consider about middle defense...
I've made the argument that "when a Championship manager is choosing a player at the key defensive positions of 2B, SS and CF, in NINE cases out of TEN he will choose a one or a two." This might be missing a better argument: "[i:2f5d6f2b52]Two thirds of the time he will choose a two[/i:2f5d6f2b52]."
As the cards march onward toward statistical perfection, utilizing ones might be getting closer to the "too much of a good thing" thing. Just something to consider...
- J-Pav
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by schnoogens » Wed Dec 22, 2010 1:03 am
Someone earlier posted that the range sum of your SS, 2B, and CF should be 4 or less...I disagree. Change that # to a 6 and now you're talking.
I often go 2,2,2 or will occasionally go 3-2-1. I probably average a sum of 5. But 4 limits your fielding options by far too much.
I often go 2,2,2 or will occasionally go 3-2-1. I probably average a sum of 5. But 4 limits your fielding options by far too much.
- schnoogens
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
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