Let HAL do lineup?
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Let HAL do lineup?
by wavygravy2k » Mon Jan 17, 2011 7:34 pm
Just wondering how many let HAL do the lineup for a bit at the beginning of the season?
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by gbrookes » Tue Jan 18, 2011 12:29 am
I treat this question as a strategy question. Depending on the series for that night, I might fill in the whole lineup, fill in none of the lineup, or fill in part of the lineup.
I will make the decision mainly based on the R-L balance of the probable pitchers for that night. If there is a huge difference in the R-L balance for the same throwing hand pitchers, I will often let HAL pick the lineups - esp. if there are lefty and righty hitters on my team with approx. equal batting cards vs that hand of pitcher. Another quirky thing is whether the opposing pitcher gives up many homeruns, and if I have an N powered hitter and an otherwise superior W powered hitter vying for the starting role, and the opposing pitchers are very different from each other in terms of home run control.
Another factor is catcher's throwing arm. HAL really, really likes good throwing arms in catchers - myself, less so. But sometimes I think HAL may take into account the opposing team's base stealing abilty (or lack thereof), and will start a weaker-throwing-arm catcher if they are a superior batter with a good L-R matchup vs that pitcher.
In back to the 90's, I have found that letting HAL set the lineups early in the season can be very helpful in trying to analyze what card batters have - although this "analysis" can be very humbling in the end, when your initial guess wasn't right. I am just finishing my first back to the 90's seasons soon, so I can give more feedback on that later. But I do think this helps to analyze what cards you have, based on HAL's lineup choices and batting order.
Hope this helps. Basically, I treat this as a strategy option, and I use it differently all the time based on what kind of team I have!
:)
Geoff
I will make the decision mainly based on the R-L balance of the probable pitchers for that night. If there is a huge difference in the R-L balance for the same throwing hand pitchers, I will often let HAL pick the lineups - esp. if there are lefty and righty hitters on my team with approx. equal batting cards vs that hand of pitcher. Another quirky thing is whether the opposing pitcher gives up many homeruns, and if I have an N powered hitter and an otherwise superior W powered hitter vying for the starting role, and the opposing pitchers are very different from each other in terms of home run control.
Another factor is catcher's throwing arm. HAL really, really likes good throwing arms in catchers - myself, less so. But sometimes I think HAL may take into account the opposing team's base stealing abilty (or lack thereof), and will start a weaker-throwing-arm catcher if they are a superior batter with a good L-R matchup vs that pitcher.
In back to the 90's, I have found that letting HAL set the lineups early in the season can be very helpful in trying to analyze what card batters have - although this "analysis" can be very humbling in the end, when your initial guess wasn't right. I am just finishing my first back to the 90's seasons soon, so I can give more feedback on that later. But I do think this helps to analyze what cards you have, based on HAL's lineup choices and batting order.
Hope this helps. Basically, I treat this as a strategy option, and I use it differently all the time based on what kind of team I have!
:)
Geoff
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by voovits » Tue Jan 18, 2011 3:24 pm
[quote:9220abbbf6="Geoff Brookes"]
In back to the 90's, I have found that letting HAL set the lineups early in the season can be very helpful in trying to analyze what card batters have - although this "analysis" can be very humbling in the end, when your initial guess wasn't right. [/quote:9220abbbf6]
Or you could obsess over it like I do, by writing down all the relevant percentages (On base, HR, extra base hits, and walk percentages) of all the possible seasons of all my offensive players into a notebook, and then do eliminations of possible seasons based on the lineups chosen. I will do the same thing if I pick up free agents.
I can't say that I'm 100% accurate with my findings, but I end up being at least 90% accurate by the end of the season.
Just a couple of things though:
First, I totally disregard who HAL enters into the 1 and 2 slots. I have yet to discover reasoning for why HAL puts players there. To help me out, I usually put known players, or players in which I don't really care which season I have in those slots manually, and let HAL fill 3-9 in the order.
I have seen great players, with high homerun power and high on base percentages and lousy players with W power, and low on base numbers enters in the #2 slot. So, I just disregard who he puts there.
Secondly, as Geoff mentioned, HAL tends to like defense. However, I have found that it's more that just defense that HAL uses to decide who plays. I don't go by this all the time, but as a general rule, in some cases, I do not take into account [i:9220abbbf6]who[/i:9220abbbf6] starts as much as where they start in the lineup. HAL leaving a guy on the bench is not a guarantee that the player is no good. Wait for his opportunity to get a start and see where he gets used in the lineup.
Yes, I spend waaaaaaaaaaaay too much time on this game.
In back to the 90's, I have found that letting HAL set the lineups early in the season can be very helpful in trying to analyze what card batters have - although this "analysis" can be very humbling in the end, when your initial guess wasn't right. [/quote:9220abbbf6]
Or you could obsess over it like I do, by writing down all the relevant percentages (On base, HR, extra base hits, and walk percentages) of all the possible seasons of all my offensive players into a notebook, and then do eliminations of possible seasons based on the lineups chosen. I will do the same thing if I pick up free agents.
I can't say that I'm 100% accurate with my findings, but I end up being at least 90% accurate by the end of the season.
Just a couple of things though:
First, I totally disregard who HAL enters into the 1 and 2 slots. I have yet to discover reasoning for why HAL puts players there. To help me out, I usually put known players, or players in which I don't really care which season I have in those slots manually, and let HAL fill 3-9 in the order.
I have seen great players, with high homerun power and high on base percentages and lousy players with W power, and low on base numbers enters in the #2 slot. So, I just disregard who he puts there.
Secondly, as Geoff mentioned, HAL tends to like defense. However, I have found that it's more that just defense that HAL uses to decide who plays. I don't go by this all the time, but as a general rule, in some cases, I do not take into account [i:9220abbbf6]who[/i:9220abbbf6] starts as much as where they start in the lineup. HAL leaving a guy on the bench is not a guarantee that the player is no good. Wait for his opportunity to get a start and see where he gets used in the lineup.
Yes, I spend waaaaaaaaaaaay too much time on this game.
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by wavygravy2k » Tue Jan 18, 2011 7:42 pm
[quote:6bae5370a4="Geoff Brookes"]
HAL leaving a guy on the bench is not a guarantee that the player is no good. Wait for his opportunity to get a start and see where he gets used in the lineup.[/quote:6bae5370a4]
Didn't know that.
In my first 90's league I think I recall one of the top players, Panzer ace, willfully dropping some players who hadn't had an at bat before. I don't remember how their defense was compared to the other players on the team, though.
HAL leaving a guy on the bench is not a guarantee that the player is no good. Wait for his opportunity to get a start and see where he gets used in the lineup.[/quote:6bae5370a4]
Didn't know that.
In my first 90's league I think I recall one of the top players, Panzer ace, willfully dropping some players who hadn't had an at bat before. I don't remember how their defense was compared to the other players on the team, though.
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by gbrookes » Tue Jan 18, 2011 7:54 pm
I agree with everything Voovits said - especially the 1 and 2 spots. I often fill those in and leave spots 3-9 blank, just the same as what Voovits does. Sometimes if I know who HAL will start in the 2 spot in certain situations (say vs an L balanced RHP and vs. an R balanced RHP), I will leave the 2 spot blank also.
BTW, early in the 90's seasons I leave the 1 and 2 spots blank also. I think HAL tends to put the high OB% players there regardless of their overall run production abilities. So the 1 and 2 spots give me another clue as to what card players have. But like Voovits says, it is really hard to understand what HAL does sometimes. He seems to like putting good bunters in the 2 spot, even if that is not part of your game plan.
I tend to do my own quick calcs on CERTAIN players AFTER I see what HAL does with the lineup. That way I don't calc every card for every player. I have my own adaptation of the run production theories (credit largely to Dean TSC but also Marcus Wilby, who stated on the boards a while ago that he uses empirical data run production mathematical ratios. I have the hard copy from the site he referenced).
The model that I am using (which is my own crude version from their work, and mostly from the empirical data) is walks times 1.4, singles times 2, doubles times 3.25, triples times 4.4, homeruns times 5.75. It seems to be consistent with what HAL does most of the time (I also factor in defense using the same ratios, with fielding probablities).
It is also very consistent with the L-R balance ratios. For hitters, the difference between the L and R card totals divided by 10 is the L-R balance. For pitchers, I divide by 7 to get the L-R balance. It works quite well when you use the ballpark effects from the players home ballpark. And like I said, it is generally consistent and can explain most of HAL's decisions. By a kind of reverse engineering, I can make some good guesses as to which cards each player might have. But at the end of the day, it is STILL just a guess, and I am wrong sometimes. I will find out how well I did soon, after my first 2 90's leagues finish up!
And yes, like Voovits, I spend too much time on this!! :) But I really, really like this game!! :)
Geoff
BTW, early in the 90's seasons I leave the 1 and 2 spots blank also. I think HAL tends to put the high OB% players there regardless of their overall run production abilities. So the 1 and 2 spots give me another clue as to what card players have. But like Voovits says, it is really hard to understand what HAL does sometimes. He seems to like putting good bunters in the 2 spot, even if that is not part of your game plan.
I tend to do my own quick calcs on CERTAIN players AFTER I see what HAL does with the lineup. That way I don't calc every card for every player. I have my own adaptation of the run production theories (credit largely to Dean TSC but also Marcus Wilby, who stated on the boards a while ago that he uses empirical data run production mathematical ratios. I have the hard copy from the site he referenced).
The model that I am using (which is my own crude version from their work, and mostly from the empirical data) is walks times 1.4, singles times 2, doubles times 3.25, triples times 4.4, homeruns times 5.75. It seems to be consistent with what HAL does most of the time (I also factor in defense using the same ratios, with fielding probablities).
It is also very consistent with the L-R balance ratios. For hitters, the difference between the L and R card totals divided by 10 is the L-R balance. For pitchers, I divide by 7 to get the L-R balance. It works quite well when you use the ballpark effects from the players home ballpark. And like I said, it is generally consistent and can explain most of HAL's decisions. By a kind of reverse engineering, I can make some good guesses as to which cards each player might have. But at the end of the day, it is STILL just a guess, and I am wrong sometimes. I will find out how well I did soon, after my first 2 90's leagues finish up!
And yes, like Voovits, I spend too much time on this!! :) But I really, really like this game!! :)
Geoff
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by gbrookes » Tue Jan 18, 2011 8:02 pm
In my first 90's season I dropped Molitor after game 3, without him ever getting out of the dugout. Based on the fact that HAL did not start him in any of the first 3 games, and knowing what players HAL started ahead of him, I made a decision as to which card he had. I concluded it was his 4th card.
That team was loosely based on the Blue Jays. I had Olerud at 1b, but I expected HAL to start Molitor at DH. The fact that HAL started other players against both LHP and RHP in that series made me think that Molitor's card had to be worst than the DH that HAL started in those games. I believe that I made a correct logical/mathematical conclusion that it had to be Molitor's 4th card - maybe his 5th, but I concluded it was his 4th. At his salary, and with HAL not starting him, and if it WAS his 4th card, I just didn't want to keep him for what might be a season of lukewarm offense. Also, I needed better hitting vs. RHP, and his 4th card wouldn't really deliver on that.
I'll find out in a little less than a week if I was right or not - I'll post it either way.
That team was loosely based on the Blue Jays. I had Olerud at 1b, but I expected HAL to start Molitor at DH. The fact that HAL started other players against both LHP and RHP in that series made me think that Molitor's card had to be worst than the DH that HAL started in those games. I believe that I made a correct logical/mathematical conclusion that it had to be Molitor's 4th card - maybe his 5th, but I concluded it was his 4th. At his salary, and with HAL not starting him, and if it WAS his 4th card, I just didn't want to keep him for what might be a season of lukewarm offense. Also, I needed better hitting vs. RHP, and his 4th card wouldn't really deliver on that.
I'll find out in a little less than a week if I was right or not - I'll post it either way.
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by voovits » Wed Jan 19, 2011 1:27 am
[quote:083f9f62cc="wavygravy2k"]In my first 90's league I think I recall one of the top players, Panzer ace, willfully dropping some players who hadn't had an at bat before. I don't remember how their defense was compared to the other players on the team, though.[/quote:083f9f62cc]
What I said does not apply all the time.
If you got a guy like Phil Plantier in the 90s game on your team for example, and HAL does not start him, especially vrs a righty pitcher, you can petty safely assume that you do not have his 91 card and cut ties with him.
An example of HAL benching a player that is good would be in the 80s game. I had HAL starting Mickey Hatcher 87 vrs lefties over Bob Horner 79.
Hatcher 87 is good vrs lefties, but compared to Horner 79? Yeah the OBP is less, but Horner has a ton more homerun power.
There have been other, more extreme examples, but that's the first one that came to mind. Many times a decision to sit a good player revolves around defensive issues or L/R matchup vrs the opposing pitcher, but not in every case.
A couple of other things I have noticed about HAL choosing the batting order:
- Hal pays no attention to the ballpark. The lineup he puts together for a 1/1 1/1 ballpark will be identical to a 20/20 20/20 ballpark. Same applies to L/R imbalanced parks.
- HAL pays no attention to L/R matchups and the strength of the opposing pitcher. he may choose to start or sit someone based on your matchup vrs a 6R starter, but it will not effect the actual batting order. The batting order would be the same if the same players played against a 9L pitcher.
- HAL seems to think that W power guys belong at the bottom of the order. However, I have seen W power guys hit ahead of weak kitting N power guys before, though rarely.
What I said does not apply all the time.
If you got a guy like Phil Plantier in the 90s game on your team for example, and HAL does not start him, especially vrs a righty pitcher, you can petty safely assume that you do not have his 91 card and cut ties with him.
An example of HAL benching a player that is good would be in the 80s game. I had HAL starting Mickey Hatcher 87 vrs lefties over Bob Horner 79.
Hatcher 87 is good vrs lefties, but compared to Horner 79? Yeah the OBP is less, but Horner has a ton more homerun power.
There have been other, more extreme examples, but that's the first one that came to mind. Many times a decision to sit a good player revolves around defensive issues or L/R matchup vrs the opposing pitcher, but not in every case.
A couple of other things I have noticed about HAL choosing the batting order:
- Hal pays no attention to the ballpark. The lineup he puts together for a 1/1 1/1 ballpark will be identical to a 20/20 20/20 ballpark. Same applies to L/R imbalanced parks.
- HAL pays no attention to L/R matchups and the strength of the opposing pitcher. he may choose to start or sit someone based on your matchup vrs a 6R starter, but it will not effect the actual batting order. The batting order would be the same if the same players played against a 9L pitcher.
- HAL seems to think that W power guys belong at the bottom of the order. However, I have seen W power guys hit ahead of weak kitting N power guys before, though rarely.
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by tkkjlsoup » Thu Jan 20, 2011 12:22 am
[quote:8cd1e4adec="Voovits"]
A couple of other things I have noticed about HAL choosing the batting order:
- Hal pays no attention to the ballpark. The lineup he puts together for a 1/1 1/1 ballpark will be identical to a 20/20 20/20 ballpark. Same applies to L/R imbalanced parks.[/quote:8cd1e4adec]
Voovits if you mean that the batting [i:8cd1e4adec]order[/i:8cd1e4adec] is unaffected by the ballpark then I agree. If you mean that player selections (i.e. who plays and who sits) is unaffected by the ballpark then I don't agree. I think HAL takes ballpark characteristics into account when deciding who plays.
A couple of other things I have noticed about HAL choosing the batting order:
- Hal pays no attention to the ballpark. The lineup he puts together for a 1/1 1/1 ballpark will be identical to a 20/20 20/20 ballpark. Same applies to L/R imbalanced parks.[/quote:8cd1e4adec]
Voovits if you mean that the batting [i:8cd1e4adec]order[/i:8cd1e4adec] is unaffected by the ballpark then I agree. If you mean that player selections (i.e. who plays and who sits) is unaffected by the ballpark then I don't agree. I think HAL takes ballpark characteristics into account when deciding who plays.
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by The Conndor » Thu Jan 20, 2011 2:16 am
I have never let HAL pick my whole lineup, but this discussion made me curious so I decided to try it last night. My team wasn't hitting yet, and it's the 1st week of the season, so what the heck. I decided to pick 2 studs (Giles and Bagwell) and bat them 1-2, and then see what HAL cooked up:
The good news, I won 2 of 3. But the lineups HAL came up with did not make me think there is method to HAL's madness. Tom Goodwin starting 3 games over Darryl Hamilton... I can see that. Mike Pagliarulo starting 3 over Robin Ventura... that's stretching it, but it could be possible. Bob Melvin starting 3 over Benito Santiago, all against righty starting pitchers... uh, I'm sorry, but there is no season of Melvin's that is better than any of Benito's, and Santiago is one of the only C's that is on par defensively with Melvin.
Am I missing something here? I don't see HAL's lineups as much more than a crapshoot, but a whole lot of you out there have been more successful at this game than I have, so I could very easily be wrong.
The good news, I won 2 of 3. But the lineups HAL came up with did not make me think there is method to HAL's madness. Tom Goodwin starting 3 games over Darryl Hamilton... I can see that. Mike Pagliarulo starting 3 over Robin Ventura... that's stretching it, but it could be possible. Bob Melvin starting 3 over Benito Santiago, all against righty starting pitchers... uh, I'm sorry, but there is no season of Melvin's that is better than any of Benito's, and Santiago is one of the only C's that is on par defensively with Melvin.
Am I missing something here? I don't see HAL's lineups as much more than a crapshoot, but a whole lot of you out there have been more successful at this game than I have, so I could very easily be wrong.
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