by gbrookes » Tue Jan 25, 2011 7:16 pm
Jimmy C:
I left some key openings in my "vs. righty" lineup the other night. Hal put Huskey in RF instead of Salmon. I know Salmon has his worst card ('99) but it is still .862 OPS. Plus he is "E" in that year. Huskey's best OPS card is .830 and all his cards lean left. Salmon is a better defensive player in RF also. Yet...Hal started Huskey against a righty over Salmon.
I think Hal uses the Eenie-Meenie-Miney-Moe method way too often for lineup selection...[quote:86399a39a4]
Jimmy C, I agree with you. Using my run production calcs, I estimate that Husky's 97 card and Salmon's 99 card are about even offensively vs. RHP, BUT Salmon's defense is better. For what it's worth, Salmon also has fewer GB A's, and he is a slightly better base runner, but the defense and arm should be enough for HAL to start Salmon instead of Huskey, by my calculations.
However, I HAVE noticed something similar to this in my experiences with HAL:
I sometimes find that HAL starts players where I don't expect him to start them, even when I KNOW what the cards are. This, despite the fact that my model does a pretty darn good job of predicting HAL's choices.
My conclusion from this is that HAL uses some weighting toward the run production for each player for facing the OTHER handedness of pitching. So, in this example, I have noticed that HAL might start Huskey (97) over Salmon (99), because of Huskey's superior hitting against LHP! You may laugh, groan, or say I am really off my rocker, but I HAVE noticed this. My thinking is that HAL provides some weighting to the other handed portion of the card, based on the possibility of a relief pitcher coming in with the opposite throwing arm.
The other very distinct possibility is that my own run production model does NOT properly model HAL's run production model. So, if HAL assigns a lower run production factor to walks than I do, then he might pick Husky instead of Salmon. But, my own calculations say that Husky's inferior defense should have him sitting on the bench - not to mention Salmon's great arm in RF!
Here are my calcs, rounded to nearest whole number product, (using 1-10, or .5, for the ballpark homeruns):
Huskey - 97
walks - 0
singles - 14 * 2 = 28 points
doubles - 5.85 *3.25 = 19
triples - .6 *4.44 = 3
homeruns - 5.4 * 5.75 = 31
ballpark HRs - 4 * 5.75 = 23
total - 104
Salmon - 99
walks - 21* 1.4 = 29
singles - 3 * 2 = 6
doubles - 7.45 * 3.25 = 24
triples - .8 *4.44 = 3
homeruns 4 * 5.75 = 23
ballpark HRs - 3 * 5.75 = 17
total - 102
By contrast, Huskey vs LHP is 127, while Salmon is 98.
I'll see if I can find another example, but I can honestly say that I have seen HAL do this kind of thing in other situations.
Geoff[/quote:86399a39a4]