NLD 27 - The legend continues!

Postby joethejet » Tue May 10, 2011 2:40 pm

Ok, for further entertainment value, here were the salary allocations at the time I took the ratings:

[code:1:67bfb5c25a]
........ Lineup Pitching
Jeep... 51.3 21.7
Hawk... 48.2 23.9
Keyzick 46.8 28.1
AT..... 46.2 21.4
Big A.. 43.4 30.9
DT..... 41.3 28.7
Big M.. 41.0 29.4
JTJ.... 40.8 27.9
Stoney. 40.4 31.8
Silver. 32.9 28.9
Smoke.. 35.5 27.0
Zim.... 32.7 35.4
Average 41.5 28.6

Sorting by Pitching
........ Lineup Pitching
Smoke.. 35.5 27.0
Zim.... 32.7 35.4
Stoney. 40.4 31.8
Big A.. 43.4 30.9
Big M.. 41.0 29.4
Silver. 32.9 28.9
DT..... 41.3 28.7
Keyzick 46.8 28.1
JTJ.... 40.8 27.9
Hawk... 48.2 23.9
Jeep... 51.3 21.7
AT..... 46.2 21.4
[/code:1:67bfb5c25a]
Interesting?

Jet
Last edited by joethejet on Tue May 10, 2011 11:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby superflymacdaddyjuice » Tue May 10, 2011 3:13 pm

i dont think it get. what exactly do the tables mean? at one point i had 35 million tied up in pitching?
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Postby joethejet » Tue May 10, 2011 11:43 pm

Ah shoot, I had a little problem. Fixed now. Didn't change the sort however.

Jet
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Postby joethejet » Wed May 11, 2011 1:35 am

Ok, some more info to boggle your mind: http://www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet/nld27.pdf

That's the park by park comparisons.

Red going across is bad for you. In your own park column red is good for you. No color means it's about even.

So, in my park (Wrigley) I should be better than all the teams. On the road I should be better in Petco, Citi, Chase, and Busch than the home teams.

The totals, not balanced for divisions looks like this:

[code:1:992969f1b0]
DT 13
JTJ 12
stoney 12
Keyzick 12
Big M 5
Jeep 3
At 0
Silver -7
Hawk -7
big A -12
Smoke -13
zim -21
[/code:1:992969f1b0]

In other words Zim should be worse in pretty much all parks, he's tied in only one. Whereas DT, SToney, JTJ, Keyz should have advantages.

Been pretty true for Stones and Keyz, not at all for me and DT. Zim has struggled, but maybe not as much as expected.

I'm still convinced my pitching isn't this bad, and the salary amounts would seem to indicate that I shouldn't be, at the very least, the worst pitching by a large margin.

Not sure why DT has struggled. Perhaps he has reasons.

Big M has parlayed his advantage at home to his advantage.

Silver is doing it with mirrors.

And Smokey is somehow smoking on the road. The numbers wouldn't support that except for maybe in his division.
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Postby joethejet » Thu May 12, 2011 1:41 am

Ouch, lost a pair in extras tonight. Can't afford to lose any, much less heartbreakers. :(
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LOL

Postby qksilver69 » Thu May 12, 2011 9:39 am

Because you can't figure out why I'm succeeding, it's "mirrors" right Joe? :D

Dig a little deeper buddy, the answers are there, do you have the analytical chops to suss them out? :P
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Postby Jeepdriver » Thu May 12, 2011 10:01 am

Some very tight races. The Central and West each have ties for first with all four teams having 71 wins.
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Re: LOL

Postby joethejet » Thu May 12, 2011 3:11 pm

[quote:46b875a7fa="qksilver"]Because you can't figure out why I'm succeeding, it's "mirrors" right Joe? :D

Dig a little deeper buddy, the answers are there, do you have the analytical chops to suss them out? :P[/quote:46b875a7fa]

Hmm, let's take a look..... 29-18 yep, that's about it. There's a 14 game swing between our teams right there. ;)

Let's see, you spent $1 mil more than me on pitching and have allowed 200 less runs. I'm sure that's all in how you pick 'em right? 8-) I'm sure the difference between Meek and Hensley is all explained by a great pitching coach. :P I'm sure Zumaya, Halladay, Zito, and Myers's > .290 BA v LHB is only because of the park. I'm sure that Romero's pathetic performance v LHB is somehow related to something that I didn't do correctly. As are Wood and Lopez > .350 BA versus their "bad" sides. Heck even if you roll every single time on the hitter's card you wouldn't expect numbers that high.

Yeah, I know there's a difference in parks that explains some of it, but it's just one of those leagues for us I think.

Anyway, joking aside, by mirrors, I was referring to your outstanding +11 in one run games (plus how many one runners you've played) vis-a-vis the ratings and how much you spent on pitching. You're at the top of the league in runs allowed yet spent an average amount on pitching.

Jet
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Postby bigmahon » Thu May 12, 2011 3:44 pm

You know, the ratings are fun and all, but why don't we admit once and for all that their predictive powers are limited at best?
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Postby qksilver69 » Thu May 12, 2011 3:44 pm

[quote:a414cb95f8]I'm sure that's all in how you pick 'em right? I'm sure the difference between Meek and Hensley is all explained by a great pitching coach. [/quote:a414cb95f8]

HAL is my coach, I'm just letting him do his job! :D

But yes, this NLD is all about how you pick 'em. Here is the post I had ready to go before I decided to give you a shot at it:

[quote:a414cb95f8]I think the mirrors are in your stats Joe! :D

Seriously, I can't really trust any stats that call my team neutral or bad in any pitcher park. I expect us to look bad in any hitter park, but we have a lot of natural XBH, OB & speed, and our pitchers are tailored for a pitcher park div, which we're in. So not sure what you're measuring but pretty sure it's not the right things! :P

But the big factor you're not looking at is matchups. The reason I ditched Santana and Thome post-draft was I counted SPs in my div & the league and it was a lot of LHs. To date: 75 starts against LH SPs, only 60 vs. RH SPs. That is the most unbalanced number I've ever seen since I started playing SOM.

Ok, now take a look at my L/R splits - we're doing significantly better vs LHP as a result of me ditching Thome/Santana and investing in Freese/Cuddyer & others.

Lastly, I'm giving HAL all the tools he needs to succeed. If I'm facing a LH SP and he gets pulled for a RH RP, HAL has a ton of PH to choose from. And of my 18 million platoons, only 2 guys have faced a bunch of pitchers on the "bad" side - Cuddyer and Upton, mostly due to injuries. Everyone else is being used exactly the way I'd want. And I have the best PR tandem around in Upton & Dyson, so any close game HAL has them in there taking an extra base or stealing 2nd or even 2nd & 3rd.

The same goes for RPs - HAL goes down the line and picks the right RP almost all the time, and yanks the specialists very quickly because there is almost always a rested guy with a better platoon advantage warming up in the pen.[/quote:a414cb95f8]

The 1-run game thing is usually explained by luck, but in this case a) we're in a pitcher park in a pitcher div, with a weak offense so we're going to see more 1-run games than the norm, and b) the pen usage by HAL has been so spot-on that I think some of the +11 1-run record is earned.
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