Guys, check out gm 153 from last nite - [b:f79e75589e]TWO[/b:f79e75589e] triple plays turned in the same game - has this ever happened before?
And get this - 2nd one was turned by our side in the bottom of the 9th to end the frikkin' game in yet another 1-run win - it's all skill I tell ya! :P
NLD 27 - The legend continues!
even more luck!
by qksilver69 » Wed May 18, 2011 1:13 pm
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by joethejet » Wed May 18, 2011 3:05 pm
[quote:7ed37ac937="qksilver"]$ spent is a pretty rough measure for "better". And I never said luck wasn't involved Joe, it's just that you seem to consistently attribute your performance (when bad) to poor dice, and attribute others' good performance to lucky dice. At some point it might serve you better to look past that....[/quote:7ed37ac937]
I hear ya. I look at things closely when things don't work. In this case, I really do believe that this pitching is better than it has been. Just the hard numbers, not even looking at ratings, would say this is the case. That's why I keep asking you if you think the numbers my staff has put up is an anomaly or warranted. Still haven't really gotten a reply on that question.
Personally, when I look at a team for lucky, unlucky, I try to look across the board. So, when I see a team that's around .500 in one runners, that's normal. Early on my team was very unlucky in that regard. Now we're only -3. That's a "normal" range. You're now +15 that's, a least to some degree, good luck. I don't think you can honestly deny that. Others that are lucky or unlucky in this round (IMHO)
stone +10
AT - 9
to a lesser degree
Smoke +7
Jeep -7
The other thing I look at is across the board failure/success. It's not "normal" for an entire (or a large %) to give you at or above normal numbers. (or below)
So, for example, my pitching is across the board bad. A. Sanchez is the only guy who is at or above IMHO. In contrast, you have one pitcher who has been bad and he's a .76 guy. I don't think that' is normal or expected results.
OTOH, our offense, is fairly normal. Holliday, Milledge, Rosales have been pretty good. Votto, Blanco, Valdez, Hairston in the normal range. McCann, Alvarez, Ethier (playing in a LH HR park mind you) and Young have been disappointments. But overall this is expected to me. Some above, some at, some below. I haven't looked enough at other team's O to see if I think they've been across the board unlucky.
Does this make sense? Do you think this analysis is wrong? Should I have different expectations?
Jet
I hear ya. I look at things closely when things don't work. In this case, I really do believe that this pitching is better than it has been. Just the hard numbers, not even looking at ratings, would say this is the case. That's why I keep asking you if you think the numbers my staff has put up is an anomaly or warranted. Still haven't really gotten a reply on that question.
Personally, when I look at a team for lucky, unlucky, I try to look across the board. So, when I see a team that's around .500 in one runners, that's normal. Early on my team was very unlucky in that regard. Now we're only -3. That's a "normal" range. You're now +15 that's, a least to some degree, good luck. I don't think you can honestly deny that. Others that are lucky or unlucky in this round (IMHO)
stone +10
AT - 9
to a lesser degree
Smoke +7
Jeep -7
The other thing I look at is across the board failure/success. It's not "normal" for an entire (or a large %) to give you at or above normal numbers. (or below)
So, for example, my pitching is across the board bad. A. Sanchez is the only guy who is at or above IMHO. In contrast, you have one pitcher who has been bad and he's a .76 guy. I don't think that' is normal or expected results.
OTOH, our offense, is fairly normal. Holliday, Milledge, Rosales have been pretty good. Votto, Blanco, Valdez, Hairston in the normal range. McCann, Alvarez, Ethier (playing in a LH HR park mind you) and Young have been disappointments. But overall this is expected to me. Some above, some at, some below. I haven't looked enough at other team's O to see if I think they've been across the board unlucky.
Does this make sense? Do you think this analysis is wrong? Should I have different expectations?
Jet
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by qksilver69 » Wed May 18, 2011 4:28 pm
I think you have to temper pitching expectations in Wrigley, yes (though your home/road splits are pretty even). And I also noted that your offense has mostly been good - hitting to cards in SOM, even in 80M cap leagues, is pretty rare from what I have seen. My vision is skewed on that since I play mostly 200M keeper leagues now.
I think I hinted previously at how I see your pitcher card values, but here's a more direct answer:
Zumaya, good value in this set, his HR rates are on track but the WHIP is high, mostly due to BB vs LH. He has a fair # of BB to LH on his card, so that combined with him facing a lot of good LH hitters is where I think the issues lie (plus the high BP singles # in Wrigley). But yes, definitely some bad rolls affecting his performance.
Hensley - IMHO not a good value in this set, if he faces at least 50% LHB. I think at times in hitter parks we overrate low BP HRs on an RP card, when many times increased OB as a tradeoff is not a good bet. I would have taken a reverse RH RP or balanced LH RP in this slot.
Wood - not a bad card for the money, but I would be using him (the balanced card) in mopup and not Lopez.
Lopez - sorry Joe, this is pretty bad usage of his card IMHO. I would never use my best lefty specialist in a mopup role, I'd give those IP to Wood since you have 2 expensive RHs and keep both Lopez and Romero as LOOGYs, free for HAL to use at the right time. I would have also added 1 more ROOGY to your pen mix so HAL can pull Lopez after 1 batter if needed.
Romero - not the worst usage as he's faced about 45% LHB, but I would consider a reverse RH cheapie in place of him. He's getting hit by LH, part of which is luck, part of which is low card quality vs either side.
SPs - not great values anywhere here, and Halladay is consistently a bad performer vs. his card because he always faces more LH in SOM than in real life. You can see in real life he was almost exactly 50/50, in this league it's closer to 60/40. I prefer my top * SP to be a slight reverse RHP or LHP for that reason.
I think I hinted previously at how I see your pitcher card values, but here's a more direct answer:
Zumaya, good value in this set, his HR rates are on track but the WHIP is high, mostly due to BB vs LH. He has a fair # of BB to LH on his card, so that combined with him facing a lot of good LH hitters is where I think the issues lie (plus the high BP singles # in Wrigley). But yes, definitely some bad rolls affecting his performance.
Hensley - IMHO not a good value in this set, if he faces at least 50% LHB. I think at times in hitter parks we overrate low BP HRs on an RP card, when many times increased OB as a tradeoff is not a good bet. I would have taken a reverse RH RP or balanced LH RP in this slot.
Wood - not a bad card for the money, but I would be using him (the balanced card) in mopup and not Lopez.
Lopez - sorry Joe, this is pretty bad usage of his card IMHO. I would never use my best lefty specialist in a mopup role, I'd give those IP to Wood since you have 2 expensive RHs and keep both Lopez and Romero as LOOGYs, free for HAL to use at the right time. I would have also added 1 more ROOGY to your pen mix so HAL can pull Lopez after 1 batter if needed.
Romero - not the worst usage as he's faced about 45% LHB, but I would consider a reverse RH cheapie in place of him. He's getting hit by LH, part of which is luck, part of which is low card quality vs either side.
SPs - not great values anywhere here, and Halladay is consistently a bad performer vs. his card because he always faces more LH in SOM than in real life. You can see in real life he was almost exactly 50/50, in this league it's closer to 60/40. I prefer my top * SP to be a slight reverse RHP or LHP for that reason.
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by superflymacdaddyjuice » Thu May 19, 2011 2:36 pm
Captain Skill swept me last night... all one run games. :P
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by qksilver69 » Thu May 19, 2011 2:55 pm
That's +18 in 1-runs! :P
My pythag has me 7 games over my expected win total. So I figure 7 of those 18 go to Lady Luck, and 11 of those 18 go to the Cap'n right? :P 8-) :lol:
My pythag has me 7 games over my expected win total. So I figure 7 of those 18 go to Lady Luck, and 11 of those 18 go to the Cap'n right? :P 8-) :lol:
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by joethejet » Thu May 19, 2011 3:11 pm
As I said, I'd always rather be lucky than good, especially in this game.
We're just hoping to escape the East.
Interesting, we've won 4 of 5 and 11 of 16 series, but nary a sweep. I think we've swept one, maybe two series all season. :? Just can't seem to get that third win. Hard to gain much ground when you never sweep. Course, I don't think we've been swept all that much either.
Probably jinxing myself, but at this point, don't matter much.
Jet
We're just hoping to escape the East.
Interesting, we've won 4 of 5 and 11 of 16 series, but nary a sweep. I think we've swept one, maybe two series all season. :? Just can't seem to get that third win. Hard to gain much ground when you never sweep. Course, I don't think we've been swept all that much either.
Probably jinxing myself, but at this point, don't matter much.
Jet
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by keyzick » Thu May 19, 2011 3:50 pm
Big M took a hit in the Central by being swept by AT. I'm a game back of AT and Big M is 3 back, with 6 games left in the season.
I was hoping Big M and AT would just eliminate each other, and I'd come out on top...wasn't expecting one to sweep the other! Figures the only team in my division I have a losing record against is Joe, and I close out my season against him Friday night.
On the "glass is half full" side - at least I'm in good shape if first place comes down to tie breakers.
Got Big M tonight, while AT is squaring off against Joe...I'd love to see sweeps by me and Joe tonight!! :wink:
I was hoping Big M and AT would just eliminate each other, and I'd come out on top...wasn't expecting one to sweep the other! Figures the only team in my division I have a losing record against is Joe, and I close out my season against him Friday night.
On the "glass is half full" side - at least I'm in good shape if first place comes down to tie breakers.
Got Big M tonight, while AT is squaring off against Joe...I'd love to see sweeps by me and Joe tonight!! :wink:
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by joethejet » Fri May 20, 2011 2:34 pm
Sorry Keyz, we don't sweep remember? Actually, lost 2 last night.
the key game was game 2. Alvarez had a bad night, 2 errors leading to 4 unearned runs, including the game winner, in a one run loss. My Dynamic bullpen duo of Hensley and Zumaya peformed as usual.
No way for you to get in now.
Silver and Smoke are in.
Jeep will have to sweep Stoney to get in. As will Big M over AT.
Jet
the key game was game 2. Alvarez had a bad night, 2 errors leading to 4 unearned runs, including the game winner, in a one run loss. My Dynamic bullpen duo of Hensley and Zumaya peformed as usual.
No way for you to get in now.
Silver and Smoke are in.
Jeep will have to sweep Stoney to get in. As will Big M over AT.
Jet
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by bigmahon » Mon May 23, 2011 2:12 am
A belated congrats to the 4 playoff teams, and good luck as the postseason starts tonight! :D
It certainly was an interesting season, which came right down to the wire. The thread got a bit quiet at the end, and I hope our two longest standing members haven't upset one another. :shock: :wink:
Who's ready for NLD 28? We could get started with the draft soon, if the interest is there. Indicate your cap preference when you sign up.
1) bigmahon - 80m
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It certainly was an interesting season, which came right down to the wire. The thread got a bit quiet at the end, and I hope our two longest standing members haven't upset one another. :shock: :wink:
Who's ready for NLD 28? We could get started with the draft soon, if the interest is there. Indicate your cap preference when you sign up.
1) bigmahon - 80m
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)
11)
12)
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