Analyzing league after season finished

[wavygravy2k]

Has anyone analyzed their league after the cards have been revealed? What did you analyze?

I rated each card based on the years from 1 to 5 "stars" and found that the more lucky you are the more success you will have - which isn't really surprising.

Just a visual sample of how I rated the players:

[img:4618521e8f]http://baseballsimulator.com/images/mystery-card-ratings.png[/img:4618521e8f]

Out of 5 leagues there was only one league where the team with the worst record had better luck (3.12) than the team with the best record (2.97):

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/playoffs/standings_regseason.html?user_id=311132. This seems to show that this particular manager (the one with the best record) had some pretty good managing skills or maybe they were lucky with the dice rolls :).

BTT90s Results (average card rating of all players including dropped players) of 10 teams:

[b:4618521e8f]Best Record - Worst Record[/b:4618521e8f]
3.51 - 2.82
3.38 - 2.88
3.03 - 2.80
2.97 - 3.12
3.04 - 2.63

Mystery year averages of all players in league (833) for five seasons. (Number of five star players in parenthesis). There's not much of a difference between seasons:

2.94 (148)
3.03 (176)
2.99 (143)
2.99 (168)
3.06 (197)

[voovits]

The big issue with that is in many cases, the star rating is subjective. My 3-star McGwire season may not be the same as your 3-star McGwire season.
Simple example is Moises Alou. Which of his seasons would you say is the best and which is second best? I'd bet if you took a poll, it would fall anywhere between a 60/40 and 50/50 split on opinion.
Secondly, assuming every player has a clear cut 1-5 as far as quality of card, not all 4's, for example, are created equal, so there is still imbalance there.

What I do when I analyze players at the end of the season is determine if I made the right decision on keeping or dropping each player based on the end of season reveals. If I conclude that the majority of my add/drops were good moves, then I consider it a success. Even if the team itself didn't do well, if I feel I couldn't reasonably do anything better, then I did what I was supposed to do.
I have had playoff teams and even a championship team that I felt I could have done better at when analyzing offseason player reveals. Just because you win a title doesn't mean you can't learn from mistakes.

[wavygravy2k]

Good points. I rated hitters on OPS only. The pitchers were rated on "WHIPERA".

I also analyzed the drops and found that pretty much all teams were close to dropping players in the 2-3 star range.

I was hoping to write a script for all of this data but it doesn't really reveal much. This is sort of why I wanted to ask the community.

[LMBombers]

A pitcher's lowest WHIP card might have high BPHRs which is likely not his best card in a HR park and vice versa. Cards could be ranked 1-5 differently for different kinds of ballparks even.

[voovits]

OPS is probably the best determining factor in the general sense, but it's still a little flawed. Take a guy who has a card with a 6L balance and an OPS of .925, and another card with a 1R balance and an OPS of .905.
These are just random numbers and are not referring to anyone in particular, but I'd say chances are I'd end up liking the 1R card better.

WHIP is also a good indicator, but IMO more so than ballpark effect, L/R balance is a bigger factor to me in comparing one card to the other.

Speaking in a general sense, OPS is probably the best way to break down the order from best to worst out of any other method. Perhaps comparing the OPS of each individual players actual stats on YountFans website would be accurate as well? It's a pretty large sample (not in the 90s yet) so it'll give you a good idea as to how they actually perform on average.