NLD 28 - The Legend Continues

[JAMESZIMMER]

I just entered the east.

[Jeepdriver]

[u:b4bf312e5a]NLD 28 [/u:b4bf312e5a]
Advanced
$100M
DH
Prog. Drops
PW = dinger

EAST
Hawk - [b:b4bf312e5a]IN [/b:b4bf312e5a]
Big Alric
zim13 - [b:b4bf312e5a]IN[/b:b4bf312e5a]
JTJ/Wine

CENTRAL
DT
Keyzick
Jeep
Bigmahon

WEST
AT
QK
Smoke
Stones

[BigAlric]

NLD 28
Advanced
$100M
DH
Prog. Drops
PW = dinger

EAST
Hawk - IN
Big Alric - IN
zim13 - IN
JTJ/Wine

CENTRAL
DT
Keyzick
Jeep
Bigmahon

WEST
AT
QK
Smoke
Stones

[qksilver69]

Interesting quote from Jonah Keri on ESPN Insider, to continue the conversation on 1-run win records from NLD 27:

[quote:d5e863cd5f]A team that routinely blows out the competition and scores a lot more runs than it gives up is usually considered (in sabermetric circles, anyway) to be much stronger than a team that ekes out wins. But even the most ardent stathead would admit that other factors can come into play beyond mere luck.

Teams that excel at run prevention can keep scores low, thus creating more opportunities for one-run games. More specifically, teams with great bullpens improve their chances to pull off close wins late in the game. The Giants rank third in the majors in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a stat that runs along a similar scale to ERA but strips out defense and other factors beyond a pitcher's control. Going by expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP), which also regresses home run rates to league average, the Giants own the second-best bullpen in the majors.[/quote:d5e863cd5f]

That's pretty much what I was saying about my NLD team last season. I don't expect to have any such issue in NLD 28, playing at Miller...

[bigmahon]

I'm ready to enter as soon as Joe gets his team in.

[joethejet]

[b:f729e27731]CENTRAL CAN LOAD[/b:f729e27731]

NLD 28
Advanced
$100M
DH
Prog. Drops
PW = dinger

EAST
Hawk - IN
Big Alric - IN
zim13 - IN
JTJ/Wine - IN

CENTRAL
DT
Keyzick
Jeep
Bigmahon

WEST
AT
QK
Smoke
Stones

[joethejet]

Silver,

yes, a good pen can help you win more close games, but you were a couple of Std deviations away from that last time around.

In addition, from what I've seen, teams tend towards .500 over a season, even teams with good pens, and certainly over a couple of years.

Jet

[qksilver69]

I ended the season 37-18 in 1-runs, and I had a +56 run differential. The Giants are 22-11 in 1-runs, an even higher pace than mine in NLD, and they have a negative run differential - so are you saying they are even luckier than my NLD team was?

So sorry Joe, not buying it. I don't think the performance was luck/random. "Standard deviation" is meaningless if it assumes all factors are equal. It can be instructive, at times, but not definitive. In my case, like in the Giants' this year, I think the bullpen construction and divisional parks/lineups are the major reason for the 1-run record.

[joethejet]

Yes I'm saying they're luckier than you and I'm also saying they have better pitching.

We've both seen plenty of teams with very good bullpens not have a +19 one run ratio. In fact, that's one of the highest ratios I've ever seen.

Jet

[qksilver69]

It's not how much you spend that determines a good pen Joe, it's how it's used, and what parks you're in.

And FYI, the +19 number is a complete red herring, it's a counting stat, it doesn't measure anything useful. What's important are a) % of 1-run games vs. total games, and b) win % in those games.

I could have been 19-0 in 1-run games and still have been +19, but it's COMPLETELY different from being 37-18. 19-0 is substantially lucky because no one should win 100% of games. 37-18 may be luck or may not be - a .667 win % in 1-run games is not evidence of luck.

But that's ok Joe, if you want to continue to rely on old logic, be my guest....