NLD 28 - The Legend Continues

[joethejet]

Course, I dont' think playing .700 ball was very sustainable so maybe it was just inevitable...... ;)

Jet

[qksilver69]

This season is once again showing how critical division park profile is to success. My pitching has been fine (with the exception of Braden), but the offense has been abysmal due to some bad luck and also some extreme pitcher parks for the road games I have in div.

I will likely continue to tweak the offense (anyone want Swisher?) as I try to balance out OB vs. BP HRs on my team's cards.

[joethejet]

I'm sure your tough start has nothing to do with your lousy one run differential. ;)

Jet

[qksilver69]

Nope. My offense is 100% to blame. As usual you place way too much emphasis on the 1-run factor, but I guess it's a good excuse for those who need them! :lol:

[joethejet]

lol

Well, at least you're consistent. I guess you don't believe in the pythag either then?

In the meantime, I haven't won a series since I said we'd gotten off to a good start. :( <sigh>

[qksilver69]

Belief requires faith, right? I think both 1-run stats and pythags are useful, to some degree, but belief is much too strong a word. They're both very very rough indicators in my book, and there are way too many factors that neither accounts for to give them credit all the time.

[joethejet]

So, Dave, I'm curious. What do you think of my pen this time around? I think it's excellent. But, I suck in one run games and have 8 BS and 13 saves.

You stated earlier that a good pen is essential to a good one run record. Is your pen not very good this time? Is my pen not as good as I think?

Is Hawk's pen that much better? He's 11-4 in one runners. We're 4-9. We're tied for first. Is my team better? Is his? What do you think?

By the Pythag, I'm 5 games better. In your case, you'd have 4 more wins.

Personal option, you *can* read too much into those stats, but when you vary quite a bit from the mean, they are good indications of luck. I'm -5, not enough to be a big deal as long as it balances out. Hawk is +7 that's, to me, a good indication of luck. You're -8. I think your team is likely better than it's played so far.

I think everyone else is pretty close except Zim is -5 and Stoney is +5, to me they are borderline unlucky/lucky. Bears watching to me.

Ive played the game FTF too long to not see how the breaks can come at all the wrong times. For example, I lost a game tonight because Werth drops a fly ball. If he drops it with no one on and two out, NBD. But, that's not what happened. I missed back-to-back 1-10 BPHRS in the bottom of the 9th of a one run game. Good examples of how breaks can come at good times or bad times.

So, what do you think of the pens?

Jet

[qksilver69]

[quote:e0752d63c4]You stated earlier that a good pen is essential to a good one run record. [/quote:e0752d63c4] Wrong, I never said that at all. What I said was very specific - that an extreme 1-run record can often be attributed to a good bullpen combined with a pitcher park/div. There are statistical correlations of this that have been proven by saberheads.

I never said a good pen was [b:e0752d63c4]essential[/b:e0752d63c4] to a 1-run record. There are plenty of times when 1-run records are largely luck, but very clearly, evidence has shown that in the cases where 1-run records are not mostly luck, it can be correlated to a very good bullpen/park combo that limits the opponent's late scoring chances.

You are playing in a largely hitter park div. This is going to mean even if your pen is good, your opponents will have more chances to beat your pen than in a pitcher park div. So have you been unlucky? Sure, and it should even out over time. You have a good team for your div & park this time around as evidenced by your HR for vs. against.

I think Pythag is near useless with this small of a sample size, so I won't bother with it. When you get to the halfway mark you can maybe start to draw some conclusions based on Pythag, but I liked the 100 gm mark for that. At 40 games it really means very little in TSN's format.

I think my team is better than it's played this far as well, but not a ton better. My pen has outstanding numbers in terms of WHIP & ERA, but 9 saves & 7 blown, so some of that is bad timing, but I'm also in a hitter park so I have to expect more of that variation than last season for sure. But overall my offense was a bad fit for my div, which is why I had to ditch Swish for Abreu, as a start. Other changes may be coming.

[joethejet]

Ah, perhaps I missed that in your previous posts. I can see where the park is going to make a difference. I still think that winning 2/3 of your one runners is an anomaly, but I can see where a good pen and a pitchers park will make it more likely.

I also agree that it's a SSS right now and that the One run and Pythag are bit early and can change quite a bit. It will be interesting to see if they do.

I have to say that I don't think I'm very good at picking parks or tailoring a team to a division's parks. Wish I were better at it.

Thanks for sharing, it's always interesting to hear what others think.

Jet

[joethejet]

Took 2 of 3 from Silver (both by one run, one in extras, both in my last AB!!! :shock: ), but got no-hit by Hanson in the other one!

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/league/boxscore.html?group_id=138629&g_id=315

Jet