NLD 28 - The Legend Continues
by JAMESZIMMER » Wed Aug 17, 2011 4:18 am
Seems to me that my team should have a better record. They have been playing better of late though.
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by joethejet » Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:20 pm
Zim, well the ratings say you should be a little bit better.
Big M, FINALLY! :) ;)
Some comments:
The overalls aren't too far off with the obvious exception of AT. I don't know what to say there. His Hitting isn't too far off, but his pitching really is. Don't know if that's a function of the division he's in or what. I do note that he has outstanding D so perhaps it's playing a larger than normal part of his pitching. :?
Jeep and Zim are low. I would guess this is at least somewhat because they are good in certain parks, but not as good in others. I still wouldn't expect either team to have performed as poorly as they have however. they also have -9 and -7 one run diffs respectively. That doesn't help.
On offense, Jeep and Silver have underperformed in a big way. DT is a bit high, but most of the rest are pretty close.
On D, DT is low again (but it's interesting that his overall is right on). Here's where Zim's D is hurting.
Interesting to note whereas AT's D has probably picked up his rating more than expected, Silver's hasn't hurt him as much as would be expected. Both are above what the ratings would expect.
In the park breakdowns, things are pretty close with DT, JTJ and Smoke at the top and in playoff positions. AT is, again, the anomaly.
Overall, the ratings would say
East
Two team race with JTJ and Hawk. zim on the periphery. Jet with an advantage in more parks so the ratings would state that they would have the final advantage. Either team would still be in the WC race.
Central
Ratings would say that DT owns this division both in terms of overall and in terms of parks. Jeep *should* have given him a bit of a run, but that didn't happen.
West
The weakest Div in terms of ratings. Smoke is the ratings champ here with Stones on his heels. Both would be expected to be in the WC race due to the two "weaker" teams in the division.
Obviiously (again) AT is the outlier here that throws things off. Otherwise the ratings are pretty darn close.
So, ratings would predict the following over the last 30 games:
East - Jet holds on (if he can get his team of the DL) and pulls away a bit.
Central - DT continues to run away with it.
West - Smoke will make a run, but at this point, it will be hard to catch AT unless he just folds up his tent.
WC - Loser in the East, and Smokey are the likely contenders. Ratings would say that Keyz should fall off, but his rating isn't *that* far back.
Well, that's what the ratings say anyway.
Jet
Big M, FINALLY! :) ;)
Some comments:
The overalls aren't too far off with the obvious exception of AT. I don't know what to say there. His Hitting isn't too far off, but his pitching really is. Don't know if that's a function of the division he's in or what. I do note that he has outstanding D so perhaps it's playing a larger than normal part of his pitching. :?
Jeep and Zim are low. I would guess this is at least somewhat because they are good in certain parks, but not as good in others. I still wouldn't expect either team to have performed as poorly as they have however. they also have -9 and -7 one run diffs respectively. That doesn't help.
On offense, Jeep and Silver have underperformed in a big way. DT is a bit high, but most of the rest are pretty close.
On D, DT is low again (but it's interesting that his overall is right on). Here's where Zim's D is hurting.
Interesting to note whereas AT's D has probably picked up his rating more than expected, Silver's hasn't hurt him as much as would be expected. Both are above what the ratings would expect.
In the park breakdowns, things are pretty close with DT, JTJ and Smoke at the top and in playoff positions. AT is, again, the anomaly.
Overall, the ratings would say
East
Two team race with JTJ and Hawk. zim on the periphery. Jet with an advantage in more parks so the ratings would state that they would have the final advantage. Either team would still be in the WC race.
Central
Ratings would say that DT owns this division both in terms of overall and in terms of parks. Jeep *should* have given him a bit of a run, but that didn't happen.
West
The weakest Div in terms of ratings. Smoke is the ratings champ here with Stones on his heels. Both would be expected to be in the WC race due to the two "weaker" teams in the division.
Obviiously (again) AT is the outlier here that throws things off. Otherwise the ratings are pretty darn close.
So, ratings would predict the following over the last 30 games:
East - Jet holds on (if he can get his team of the DL) and pulls away a bit.
Central - DT continues to run away with it.
West - Smoke will make a run, but at this point, it will be hard to catch AT unless he just folds up his tent.
WC - Loser in the East, and Smokey are the likely contenders. Ratings would say that Keyz should fall off, but his rating isn't *that* far back.
Well, that's what the ratings say anyway.
Jet
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by qksilver69 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 3:52 pm
These bear out what I said from the beginning - my offense is suited to my park, but not my div. I zigged, everyone else zagged, and it cost me. Being too predictable in my SOM choices, have to start to play our NLD drafts like I'm at the poker table....
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by joethejet » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:07 pm
Dave, I'm not so sure. Everyone has known for years what you were going to do, but somehow you always did it better than anyone else. Maybe this one is just an anomaly?
Your record is sooooo good in the NLD, maybe you were just due for a tough draft. Really hard to be as good as you've been league after league. Amazing really.
Jet
Your record is sooooo good in the NLD, maybe you were just due for a tough draft. Really hard to be as good as you've been league after league. Amazing really.
Jet
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by qksilver69 » Wed Aug 17, 2011 11:18 pm
Love to hear from my div mates on this one. I have a feeling more than 1 of them went pitcher park knowing I would go for Miller.
Reminds me of when I wrestled in high school. I got really good at this one move, a rolling hip throw, and I also got good at setting guys up for it. Then 1 time I ran across this kid who had seen that move a lot, enough to learn the counter. There's a counter for everything in wrestling.
I did that move 2 him once in the 1st period, got him with it again late in the 2nd, but in the 3rd he nailed the counter and I ended up flat on my a$$, only time I got pinned out. Definitely flat on my a$$ looking up at the ceiling in this NLD! :oops:
Reminds me of when I wrestled in high school. I got really good at this one move, a rolling hip throw, and I also got good at setting guys up for it. Then 1 time I ran across this kid who had seen that move a lot, enough to learn the counter. There's a counter for everything in wrestling.
I did that move 2 him once in the 1st period, got him with it again late in the 2nd, but in the 3rd he nailed the counter and I ended up flat on my a$$, only time I got pinned out. Definitely flat on my a$$ looking up at the ceiling in this NLD! :oops:
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by superflymacdaddyjuice » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:45 am
Once I took Mauer with my first pick, I felt I was locked into a big park. So I continued picking accordingly. My park was essentially picked by the 2nd round.
thanks for the ratings Joe.
What can cause the AT anomaly here? Aside from the 14-4 record in extra's I don't notice anything else that can explain that.
thanks for the ratings Joe.
What can cause the AT anomaly here? Aside from the 14-4 record in extra's I don't notice anything else that can explain that.
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by joethejet » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:53 pm
Smokey,
I'm not sure. Honestly I don't have a lot of time on my hands right now so I didn't spend a lot of time looking at him. I did take a glance and didn't see anything obvious. It's possible I messed up his rating somehow, but didn't see that either.
Some general notes in his team:
He CREAMS LHP. But, he's only slightly over the expected (34% v 30%) but he's +20 w/l v RHP. Not sure how to explain that. He's not that bad v RHP, but certainly nothing to write home about. He is one of the weakest teams in the league in that category. The Average is around 900 he's around 880.
He has the second best D which I think is having a higher than expected impact on his pitching given the numbers.
He has a high injury team, but may not have seen the expected number of injuries and/or his backups are better than expected (not a surprise in a 100 mil league)
His Pythag is 5 behind his actual, not a huge difference but could explain part of it.
As you point out he's incredible in extras. So perhaps he's had his share of luck at opportune times.
He has a "splitty" pen and I know the ratings don't always reflect that perfectly, but it doesn't appear to me that Hal is using them all that effectively. One thing that does stand out is that Ram-Ram is as good v LHB as RHB and that *shouldn't* be the case. He also has the bulk of the RP IP.
Anderson and Mad Bum have been better than you might expect.
<shrug>
It's not uncommon for one team to totally blow away the rating and for one team to totally underperform in any given league. The latter would appear to be Jeep at this point. Although the way we've been playing of late, it might end up being me.
Jet
I'm not sure. Honestly I don't have a lot of time on my hands right now so I didn't spend a lot of time looking at him. I did take a glance and didn't see anything obvious. It's possible I messed up his rating somehow, but didn't see that either.
Some general notes in his team:
He CREAMS LHP. But, he's only slightly over the expected (34% v 30%) but he's +20 w/l v RHP. Not sure how to explain that. He's not that bad v RHP, but certainly nothing to write home about. He is one of the weakest teams in the league in that category. The Average is around 900 he's around 880.
He has the second best D which I think is having a higher than expected impact on his pitching given the numbers.
He has a high injury team, but may not have seen the expected number of injuries and/or his backups are better than expected (not a surprise in a 100 mil league)
His Pythag is 5 behind his actual, not a huge difference but could explain part of it.
As you point out he's incredible in extras. So perhaps he's had his share of luck at opportune times.
He has a "splitty" pen and I know the ratings don't always reflect that perfectly, but it doesn't appear to me that Hal is using them all that effectively. One thing that does stand out is that Ram-Ram is as good v LHB as RHB and that *shouldn't* be the case. He also has the bulk of the RP IP.
Anderson and Mad Bum have been better than you might expect.
<shrug>
It's not uncommon for one team to totally blow away the rating and for one team to totally underperform in any given league. The latter would appear to be Jeep at this point. Although the way we've been playing of late, it might end up being me.
Jet
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by superflymacdaddyjuice » Thu Aug 18, 2011 7:45 pm
If the dice are being sweet you, over performing versus RHP is a pretty sweet place to have it. At the same time, his stats are impressive in all the categories.
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